The ABC Reality Renew/Cancel is back this week, with a further look at a breakout season for the long-running Dancing with the Stars, as well as a further look at two shows that I wrote about last time.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Golden Bachelorette (0.31, 0.26-0.38)
What Would You Do? (0.16, 0.12-0.21)
Dancing with the Stars: Last week, Dancing with the Stars capped an incredible season of ratings with one of the most jaw-dropping ratings performances we've seen in years: a 1.14 in the key demo. That 1.14 rating is over 350% of this season's projected league average in the demo (0.32), and the highest rating we've seen this season outside of sports and sports-booted programming. In fact, it's the highest such rating since the series finale of This Is Us, all the way back in May 2022. This is remarkable for many reasons, but mostly because it came out of nowhere. This show seemed to be on its last legs just a few years ago, with dropping ratings that left you wondering if it would even make it to a milestone 30th season, due to its unusually large production cost for an unscripted program. It hasn't rated this high in four years. For a finale, it's been seven years - since the November 2017 finale of season 25 - since the show's done this well. ABC was done with the show just two years ago, with the show shifting to Disney+, seemingly only returning to ABC the next year due to ABC needing something - anything - to air during the SAG and WGA strikes. In that year away, the show underwent big changes, with two new hosts joining the show from the time season 30 finished on ABC to the time it returned to the network for season 32. They also lost beloved judge Len Goodman, with popular former pro dancer Derek Hough joining the judging panel as well. Coupled with the Disney+ move bringing in younger viewers, as well as the show gaining a bigger social media following, this revamp breathed new life into a show that long felt stale, almost an albatross around ABC's next, something that simply took up space on their schedule than actually being an event. Last year's season was remarkable strong, and was the #3 show on broadcast TV, a big improvement over where it left off before the Disney+ move. This season was something special, though, up 25% even from last year's strong return to ABC, and drawing huge levels of hype. While the cast did feature popular names from this year's Olympics, it wasn't exactly the most star-studded, famous cast we've seen, so the credit for the growth is truly on the show itself. It's hard to guess just what caused such a swell of interest in the show, but it's virtually guaranteed to be broadcast's #1 show this season, something that would've been unimaginable just a few years ago. To say it's a CERTAIN RENEWAL is a massive understatement, and I'm writing about it not because anyone ever would've questioned whether it returns or not, but simply to give my kudos on a mind-blowing performance that's still left me in complete awe. What a comeback.
What Would You Do?: One show whose comeback has not been as warmly received is What Would You Do?. The affordable, casually-viewed John Quinones hidden camera series has never been a ratings powerhouse, but it always did well enough for summer, and ABC was grateful to have something to keep the lights on during those months, as they couldn't solely rely on The Bachelorette to carry the entire season. As time went on, the show became less and less important, as game shows took over the summer lineup. It still aired, but in worse slots, and less often, before COVID pretty much killed it completely, until this year. It moved in-season, which was a rarity, and it got a great lead in, which was even more rare. In its post-American Idol airings, the show did OK, retaining Idol poorly but remaining cost-effective and rating about as well as most scripted shows would have. It wasn't a resounding success, but it was enough to keep this low-cost show going. Originally left off the schedule, then slotted on Mondays at 10 on the weeks without football, What Would You Do? was fall-bound this time. It even aired behind Dancing with the Stars, a preview of its fall run to come. Then ABC locked down the rights to air NFL on Mondays just about every week this fall, and those plans crumbled. Still, WWYD? remained on the schedule, while the other planned Monday shows did not. It moved to Wednesdays, prompting the planned docuseries Scamanda and airing as part of a mismatched lineup that included a reality dating show, a sitcom, and now a hidden camera unscripted show. It's not a cohesive lineup, and the ratings showed that. It only aired four episodes in that slot in the fall, but they were all a disaster. It first sunk to a 0.18, and then things really went off the rails. The next week it was a 0.13, then a 0.12, and then a 0.14. Three 0.1s in a low, by far the weakest broadcast offering in the slot, even with CBS also bombing with The Summit. Even with this poor performance, ABC's sticking with it in the 10 PM slot midseason, airing it behind Celebrity Jeopardy, which should at least be more compatible with it than Abbott Elementary. I do still expect it to return in some form even with it performing so poorly, just because it's essentially an institution at this point, and it's so affordable in a time where ABC's filling their schedule with docuseries they're borrowing from Hulu on the cheap. However, it also wouldn't be a huge shock if ABC decided not to bother with it anymore, as it's performing no better than repeats, and is a total non-entity on streaming. It LEANS RENEWAL, because the ratings can't justify any stronger of a prediction than this.
The Golden Bachelorette: It's been a few weeks since The Golden Bachelorette ended, and that's given us a bit more time to reflect on performance. In hindsight, it does look a bit better than it did at the time. It had some very ugly lows, don't get me wrong. Slipping to a 0.26 in the demo just weeks before its finale was dreadful. In general, it was a disappointing follow-up to the breakout Golden Bachelor, which had an average nearly twice as large as the Golden Bachelorette in its own inaugural season. That being said, almost everything else on ABC is doing worse. Even 9-1-1 has fallen off a cliff, and hasn't beaten the Golden Bachelorette's 0.38 finale rating since early October. In total, The Golden Bachelorette is ABC's #3 show this fall. The fall season has been a rough one for ABC, mostly due to their own poor decision-making, with only DWTS performing well. The Golden Bachelorette still looks like it could go either way, and I think its renewal will hinge on how the next Golden Bachelor season goes. If it also draws league average ratings - or better, like the original Golden Bachelor season - then I believe the Golden Bachelorette will be back. It did well enough on Hulu, and was an average performer for ABC, exceeding most of their scripted shows. Its main obstacle is that fall space is limited, with Monday off-limits due to football, Tuesdays now devoted to DWTS, Thursdays being their lone drama night in the fall, and the Friday lineup stubbornly staying the same for years. If they intend to repair their struggling comedy department, the Golden Bachelor(ette) can't return to Wednesdays at 8. Sundays are open for the most part, though ABC seems content to keep airing Disney movies there. ABC has a bit of a mess on its hands, and I'm not sure how they work towards repairing it. That being said, I do think this show has done well enough to return somewhere on the schedule, even if Bachelor franchise fatigue may work against it. It LEANS RENEWAL, though I don't expect a decision for a while.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | The Golden Bachelorette | Abbott Elementary | What Would You Do? | |||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | Doctor Odyssey | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Shark Tank | 20/20 | ||||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
