Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.24, 0.17-0.29)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.21, 0.18-0.26)
Night Court (0.28, 0.25-0.32)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med (0.39, 0.33-0.46)
Happy's Place (0.27, 0.21-0.35)
Law & Order (0.29, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.39, 0.35-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.34, 0.30-0.36)
Law & Order: SVU (0.35, 0.29-0.41)
Saturday Night Live (0.85, 0.64-1.24)
St. Denis Medical (0.39, 0.30-0.51)
Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
The Hunting Party
Suits: LA
The Irrational: NBC's sophomore drama had a solid return this October, with a 0.31 rating that put it mere hundredths behind the premiere of NBC's 10 PM titan Chicago PD, and made the show easily the #2 premiere for a 10 PM show on the network, and the #4 10 PM premiere of the season overall. I was cautiously - and I do stress cautiously, as I vividly remembered how it performed at the end of the first season - optimistic about its chances when it returned, and granted it a renewal prediction to start out. Obviously, that 0.31 has not held up. The slide began as early as its second episode, when it shed half a tenth, even as The Voice lost less. It became clear that the premiere rating was casual viewers giving it another chance, and they didn't like it enough to stick around. Things just got bleaker from there. It was matching its series low by week three, and retaining less than 60% of a weakened The Voice. This seems to be the rating we should expect from it at this point, as it hasn't gone above it since. It hit a 0.17 series low a few weeks later, the lowest rating for any big three drama this season (tied with NBC's own Brilliant Minds), and then hit it again this week. At this point, it's performing worse than any other show on NBC, and it's drawing ratings that look fitting on Fox than NBC. Its streaming performance has also seemingly dwindled if the Peacock top ten chart is accurate, as the show hasn't cracked that top ten since November 10, and was only appearing sparsely in the weeks before that, when it was a regular of the top ten in the first few weeks of its second season. So all signs point to The Irrational as a show on decline, and it's hard to think of any real positives to argue for its renewal. The only thing going for it is that NBC kept it on Tuesdays all season rather than putting one of their Sunday-bound new shows in the slot to give it a better chance at success, but even that seems a move done out of convenience rather than confidence. I'm bordering on a certain cancellation prediction here, though I'll give it a bit of leniency for the fact that it's not a freshman, NBC fully owns it, and they did give it a full season, three things all helping to keep Brilliant Minds a more likely candidate for cancellation for now. Still, it's a downgrade this week for The Irrational, to a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
St. Denis Medical: The last time I discussed St. Denis Medical, it had just premiered to a marvelous 0.51 rating, marking the highest new show debut this season. Since then, it's dropped quite a bit. It wasn't a gradual drop, with the show plunging over a point the next week to a 0.34 in the demo. While that's a drop of a full third from the premiere, it does hold up a bit better when you take the second episode, which aired the same night as the pilot, and its 0.45 rating, into consideration. It only dropped 24% from that, a slightly better showing. I didn't write about the week two rating in my column that week to avoid overreacting, and I'm glad I did give it a bit of time. While the drop was concerning, it has stabilized enough that it doesn't appear as if it'll keep dropping precipitously. It has dropped with each passing episode, though, so it's not entirely out of the woods. Still, it's by far NBC's top comedy, with Happy's Place dropping similarly after starting from a lower place. Night Court had a good second week, but backslid this week and now looks concerning. St. Denis isn't going to be the ratings powerhouse the premiere rating suggested it could be, but it was always very unlikely to hold from there. So far, it's doing exactly what it needs to in linear to secure a second season. It's also doing pretty well on Peacock, frequently hitting their top ten and even topping the chart one day last week. NBC's already run ads boasting about its ratings, so I can't imagine them pulling the plug on it this season, barring some sort of massive drop in later episodes. With four comedies on the lineup, and at least one of them bound to be picked up for next season, I can't imagine NBC letting this one go this year. It remains a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||||
| Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | The Voice | The Irrational | ||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC | |||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
