It may have been the busiest week of the summer season last week, as ABC, at long last, rolled out their summer originals, which were delayed until after the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup. Keep reading to see the starting predictions for Claim to Fame, Millionaire, The Bachelorette and more!
Certain to be Canceled:
N/A
Likely to be Canceled:
Lingo (0.19, 0.18-0.20)
The Real CSI: Miami (0.16, 0.14-0.17)
Leans Cancellation:
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.18, 0.14-0.19)
I Can See Your Voice (0.21, 0.17-0.31)
Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.23, 0.19-0.27)
Claim to Fame (0.26)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.22, 0.18-0.26)
The Wall (0.19)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (0.23, 0.22-0.25)
Password (0.26, 0.22-0.29)
The Quiz with Balls (0.26, 0.23-0.29)
Weakest Link (0.24, 0.17-0.30)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (0.44)
Certain to be Renewed:
America's Got Talent (0.47, 0.45-0.51)
American Ninja Warrior (0.33, 0.30-0.36)
The Bachelorette (0.45)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.34)
Fate Determined:
MasterChef (Renewed)
MasterChef (Renewed)
Name That Tune (Renewed)
Coming Soon:
Big Brother
Judge Steve Harvey
Lucky 13
Press Your Luck
Secret Celebrity Renovation
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire: The last time this show was on the air was over three years ago, when the league average was 0.64. That year, Millionaire went off the air with a string of 0.39-0.38-0.40 ratings in March behind American Idol, months after most of the other episodes had aired. It seemed a bit like a burnoff, and it sure rated like one. Flash forward to now, and Millionaire returned with a new season, drawing a higher rating than it went off the air with. Its 0.44 last week is one of the highest ratings we've seen this summer, and continues to show why 8 PM on a weekday is the ideal slot for one of these family-friendly game shows. Obviously, not all of them will be able to rate so well, and Millionaire should be given credit for its terrific performance, but that's the optimal scheduling for this sort of show, especially on ABC (CBS has similarly seen success with their Price Is Right primetime specials at 8 this summer, even if those have mostly been repeats). This is the type of slot Millionaire was made for, airing behind local programming, which are game shows is many markets. Only time will tell if it can hold at this level - many ABC game shows slip significantly over the course of the summer - but this is a strong start, and it's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Claim to Fame: I do have to give ABC some credit for developing an original summer reality series and actually sticking with it for several seasons despite middling ratings from the very start. Most of these summer reality shows tend to pop up and quickly disappear after a single season, without any announcement of their fate, so Claim to Fame has already sort of defied the odds. That being said, this year's premiere may have been its weakest rating yet, not even retaining 60% of its lead-in despite being in a better time slot, and nearing its series low. Millionaire provided a strong lead-in for it that it failed to take advantage of whatsoever. With Big Brother, a longtime summer favorite with a relatively similar concept, returning this week and airing in the same slot, I don't think Claim to Fame is going to look much better as the season goes on. However, ABC renewed the show last season in spite of its 10 PM ratings, which were quite similar to this year's premiere rating. It's very possible that these linear ratings are enough to keep this show going. Considering that ABC's summer schedule is pretty light this year, with only eight hours of original programming, there should be plenty of room for it on the lineup next season. Obviously, some of the other networks are programming even less than this, but ABC has always had a pretty full summer lineup, so it's hard to see them scaling back much further. Judge Steve Harvey and Lucky 13 have yet to premiere, and both could easily underperform Claim to Fame, which would be a boost to its renewal odds. Ratings-wise, there's not really a strong argument for a renewal here - it's currently the weakest summer show on ABC and by a large margin - but ABC does seem to like it, and there isn't a ton of competition for space on the lineup right now. It LEANS RENEWAL, but it's still very early.
The Bachelorette: One of ABC's longest-running summer staples, this Bachelor spinoff returned in fine form last Monday with a strong 0.45 in the demo. That puts it slightly behind America's Got Talent, and slightly ahead of Millionaire, for the title of #2 summer series thus far. Last season's premiere was an unquestionable disaster, shedding 50% and only getting uglier the week after, so a 30% year-to-year rise is more than welcome. Of course, last year's premiere aired at 9, which proved to be a troublesome slot for the Bachelor franchise, while this aired at 8, but the show still looks stronger overall this season than last season. This franchise, which was looking pretty worn-down just last year, has seen something of a renaissance as of late, between this increase, Golden Bachelor's success and The Bachelor also rising from its 2023 edition. It's far from its heyday, but it's looking very strong among a very weakened TV landscape. There's no doubt that this show will be back next summer, especially if the far-weaker Bachelor in Paradise could score a renewal after last season's collapse. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
