Predictions for 11/18/23
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| Photo Credit: Fox |
Below are the Week 8 renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2023-24 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, there is a limited amount of scripted programming this fall. As a result, reality television will now be included in this column.
Special Forces: On Monday night, Special Forces: World's Toughest Test inched up to a 0.22 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, going two ticks above the series low (0.20) it posted the week before. Though any level of growth is welcome, this is certainly not much of a comeback. Special Forces still trailed its Kitchen Nightmares lead-in (0.30) and was the lowest-rated Fox original of the week, even below Name That Tune (0.24) and LEGO Masters (0.23). With the strike now officially over and scripted programming set to return very soon, it seems unlikely Fox will have room for Special Forces on the schedule. This series looked passable enough in September and October, but the World Series break seems to have damaged the reality series permanently. What's worse is that the series was given just eight episodes for season two, as opposed to the ten it received for its first one. A reduction in episode order is almost never a good sign. Because of its shortcomings in the Nielsen ratings department, Special Forces has been downgraded to a Likely Cancellation in this column. There are just two more episodes left in the show's second season, and it is hard to imagine it will do anything to improve its renewal chances.
Krapopolis: Fox placed Krapopolis in the 8 p.m. time slot on an NFL night for the second time this season. Naturally, Krap surged to a 0.90 rating and was the highest-rated scripted program of the evening. 37% retention of The OT (2.45) is far from impressive, but it is really not that different than the 38% retention that the November 5th Simpsons managed (1.48 rating after a 3.87). It does, however, look lackluster when compared to the 1.08 that Simpsons posted behind a 2.51 OT on premiere night. It's hard to imagine Krapopolis will take away much from this artificial ratings bump. The series has gone as low as a 0.18 rating and regularly brings down the 9 p.m. comedies. Fox can give it every football boost they can find, but it's not going to miraculously turn this dud into a hit. But, the network is stuck with Krap for two more years, so they might as well juice up its average.
The Simpsons: The Simpsons was placed in the 8:30 p.m. time slot on an NFL night this week, something that only happens about once a season, if at all. It ultimately posted a 0.55 rating and retained a little over 60% of its Krapopolis lead-in (0.90). For reference, if Krapopolis had retained 60% of its lead-in in the 8:30 slot on November 5th, it would have been at a 0.9 rating instead of a 0.6. Though more should be expected of a long-running staple like Simpsons, it really goes to show that the series airing at 8:30 has the ability to retain a respectable amount of its lead-in on an NFL-boosted night. A show like Krap has no excuse for doing 40% retention here.
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