Below is a table with updated predictions for Paramount+ original series with fates yet to be determined. It notably does not include new western Lawmen: Bass Reeves, as it is a miniseries. Following the table is an analysis behind the prediction. These predictions are made primarily by looking at a program’s presence on Paramount+’s home page, combined with its overall rank on its Popular TV Shows tab. The former holds the most weight in the predictions, as Paramount+ has proven willing to cancel shows that rank well on the popularity chart. Additional analysis will be made about the recent cancelations of Joe Pickett, Rabbit Hole, and Fatal Attraction, all of which were predicted to be canceled in the previous column.
Joe Pickett, Rabbit Hole, and Fatal Attraction
Paramount+ recently canceled three dramas: Joe Pickett, Rabbit Hole, and Fatal Attraction. While all three shows were predicted to be canceled at the time of their respective cancelations, they also all at one point ranked high in the Popular Shows list. In the fourth edition of Paramount+ Renew/Cancel of 2023, Fatal Attraction was the #1 show in the Popular Shows list, and Rabbit Hole was #3. Both were listed as Likely Renew, as Certain Renew would imply that there was an expectation they would remain in those positions. As time went on, they would proceed to be downgraded to the point where Rabbit Hole ended up in the Leans Cancel category, and Fatal Attraction fell all the way down to Likely Cancel (and off the Top 120 Popular Shows list). Joe Pickett went as high as #2 on the Popular Shows list in Edition 5 of 2023, and ended up in Leans Cancel as time went on and it looked increasingly clear that Paramount+ was reluctant to commission an non-produced season (Season 2 was already produced for Spectrum TV when it moved to Paramount+).
Joe Pickett, Rabbit Hole, and Fatal Attraction are key correct predictions in the wake of iCarly’s cancelation. Three of these four prove that ranking high shortly after a show premieres doesn’t necessarily mean a show will get renewed, especially when they fall down the list as time goes on. Joe Pickett, on the other hand, remains popular but would be significantly more expensive in its third season. It also arguably demonstrates an unwillingness on Paramount+’s end to give shows the benefit of the doubt, as the service continues to lose money for Paramount. This brings our record since adapting the current prediction method to 11 correct predictions and 3 incorrect predictions.
Frasier
It’s been over six weeks since the Frasier reboot premiered on Paramount+, and it’s still holding up well. With three home page appearances, Frasier is one of the more prominently-featured Paramount+ originals right now. It has also brought newfound interest in the original series, which actually has continually slightly outranked it in the Popular TV Shows list. Canceling something as high-profile as the Frasier reboot after just one season would be embarrassing for Paramount+, and right now it looks to be on the path to renewal. It remains in the Likely Renew category, and is as close to a certain renew as a show can get.
Lawmen: Bass Reeves
Lawmen: Bass Reeves is Paramount+’s most prominently-featured original as of this writing, and is also topping the Popular TV Shows list. While the ongoing western is certainly showing promise, it’s not eligible to be renewed due to being a miniseries. Paramount+ would likely want to commission more episodes of Lawmen: Bass Reeves if it was a traditional series. It’s one more series in an increasing list of westerns to perform well for the platform.
Special Ops: Lioness
It’s a little surprising that Special Ops: Lioness has not been renewed yet. The show has ranked well in the Popular TV Shows list since it premiered, and is still featured twice on the home page. It was created and written by Taylor Sheridan, who is also behind Yellowstone, Mayor of Kingstown, Tulsa King, and 1923. Special Ops: Lioness premiered well, reportedly being the #1 premiere on Paramount+ of all time among first-day viewership. All signs point to Special Ops: Lioness being a hit.
Perhaps a renewal will come with time, and Paramount+ is just taking a pause as they evaluate their programming in the wake of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. Another very real possibility is that despite high viewership, Special Ops: Lioness may have had trouble bringing new subscribers to the streaming service. If the only people watching Special Ops: Lioness are people who are already using Paramount+ for Taylor Sheridan’s other series, it may not matter how many viewers it has. Paramount+ needs subscribers, and if they can get away with canceling Special Ops: Lioness without losing any of those subscribers, they may well could.
For now, I’m not going to go as far as to assume the delay in a renewal has to do with it not having its unique audience. In fact, even if it does have an overlapping audience with other series, it wouldn’t be a terrible idea for Paramount+ to give their current subscribers more of what they want. It gets downgraded in this edition to Leans Renew.
Big Nate
As discussed in the prior column, Big Nate’s renewal chances likely hinge more on its Nickelodeon performance than its Paramount+ performance. Season 2 hasn’t premiered on Nickelodeon yet, and there are the 10-episode backorder for Season 2 is also upcoming. For now, it’ll be predicted as Leans Renew, although its chances of renewal will diminish as time goes on.
Wolf Pack and Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head
It may seem strange to group Wolf Pack and Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head into the same analysis, but both are actually in very similar situations. It’s been quite some time since either aired any new episodes; March for Wolf Pack, and June for Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head. Both shows only make one appearance each on the home page; Wolf Pack as the second show in the ‘Myths, Legends, and Magic’ category and Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head placed in the ‘Originals’ category. Neither are doing particularly well on the Popular TV Shows list, either. Wolf Pack fluctuates between the bottom of the Top 120 and off the list entirely, and while Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head currently cracks the Top 100, it’s often been in worse positions. It’s currently performing about in line with the original Beavis and Butt-Head series, much like the Frasier reboot but on a much smaller scale. Needless to say, neither Wolf Pack nor Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head look to be in particularly great shape.
The final similarity is one that could offer a glimmer of hope to fans: both shows have dedicated social media accounts that still post content once or twice a week. Paramount+ hasn’t completely given up on either show yet, even if a cancelation appears more likely at this point than a renewal. After all, iCarly’s social media accounts were active up until the point of the show’s cancelation. Also, it may be a while before a Season 3 of Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head could make it to the air, as the first two seasons were ordered way back in July 2020 (and meant for Comedy Central in a situation that sounds eerily similar to Joe Pickett’s).
Taking everything into consideration, Wolf Pack and Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head both face downgrades in this edition. Wolf Pack moves to Leans Cancel, and Mike Judge’s Beavis and Butt-Head to Likely Cancel. Again, that doesn’t mean there’s no hope for either show, but the odds are not currently in their favor.
Share this
