Summer Renew/Cancel Week 5: Tough to Imagine a Tough As Nails Renewal

Another new entry joins the fold this week, as CBS's Tough as Nails makes an unceremonious mid-summer debut as the Tiffany Network's only currently-running original. Keep reading to see where the veteran lands in its Summer Renew/Cancel debut.

Certain to be Canceled:
The Wonder Years (0.21, 0.18-0.25)

Likely to be Canceled:
HouseBroken (0.15, 0.11-0.18)
Tough As Nails (0.19)

Leans Cancellation:
Beat Shazam (0.21, 0.17-0.26)
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge (0.29, 0.25-0.33)
Stars on Mars (0.19, 0.17-0.24)

Leans Renewal:
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.20, 0.18-0.24)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.23, 0.20-0.25)
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.27, 0.26-0.29)
LA Fire & Rescue (0.24, 0.19-0.29)

Likely to be Renewed:
Claim To Fame (0.35, 0.29-0.40)
Weakest Link (0.27, 0.20-0.32)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (0.37, 0.34-0.43)
America's Got Talent (0.65, 0.63-0.68)
The Bachelorette (0.31, 0.27-0.35)
MasterChef (0.39, 0.33-0.42)

Yet to Premiere:
The $100,000 Pyramid
Big Brother
Celebrity Family Feud
The Challenge: USA 
The Chase
Generation Gap
Mysteries Decoded
The Prank Panel

Fate Determined:
Gotham Knights (Canceled)
Superman & Lois (Renewed)

Tough as Nails: The only CBS summer show currently on the air, Tough as Nails seems to have quickly gone out of favor with CBS. The show that once earned a multi-season early renewal and aired behind Survivor has now been left to die in the summer, with twice-weekly airings that will see the show's fifth season wrapped within a single month. With almost no base of support to prop the show up, it premiered to just a 0.19 in the demo in its two-hour airing on Sunday, dropping nearly a point from its lead-in, a repeat of 60 Minutes. In addition to Sundays, the show will also air Friday nights - far from the ideal scheduling for any show, and far from the way you'd treat a show you care about, especially when all you are airing is repeats. This is a clear burnoff, as CBS attempts to dispose of old episodes of a season ordered long ago, and a show that their new leadership doesn't have any intention of keeping on the air past the end of the current season. The only thing keeping it from being totally dead is that the networks all clearly need as much unscripted programming as they can get during this writer's strike, which has no end in sight anytime soon. CBS has other new unscripted programs in the pipeline, and it seems very unlikely that Tough as Nails will be part of a potential strike-proof schedule plan. If it was, they would've saved up the episodes they already have. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Claim to Fame: After a strong premiere last week, Claim to Fame came down to earth this week, sinking nearly 30% week-to-week with a 0.29 in the demo (this coming after a finals adjustment that brought it well above its 0.23 prelim). While last week's showing was a series high, this is a series low, which is a pretty rare feat for a second season show staying in the same time slot, to say the least. While the second episode aired on the eve of Fourth of July (a night notorious for low ratings due to many Americans traveling and celebrating the holiday), it's still a worrisome decline that suggests that its premiere over-performance may have largely been due to new viewers discovering it due to its new, earlier time slot. It is important to note, though, that it still performed better than The Bachelorette, which did a few hundredths worse than it. That's why, as of this moment, I still feel confident in saying the show is a LIKELY RENEWAL. A 0.3 is still enough for renewal, especially for a summer program. I will, nevertheless, be keeping a close watch on the show's ratings as the season goes on, as further declines may necessitate a prediction downgrade.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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