Reality Renew/Cancel Part 3: Most New Entries Start As Locks

A lot has happened in the world of reality TV since our last update, and now feels like a good time for a new update. Mltiple big hits returning, a few new shows and some under-the-radar filler shows are all getting predictions today, so keep reading to see where everything lands!

Certain Cancellation:
Flirty Dancing

Likely Cancellation: 

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
The Christmas Caroler Challenge
Kids Say The Darndest Things

Likely Renewal:
24 Hours To Hell and Back
AGT: The Champions
The Great American Baking Show
LEGO Masters
Shark Tank
Undercover Boss

Certain Renewal:
48 Hours
60 Minutes
American Idol
The Bachelor
Dancing with the Stars
Dateline NBC
The Masked Singer
The Voice (already renewed for spring cycle)

Already Renewed:
America's Funniest Home Videos
Ellen's Game of Games
Ellen's Greatest Night of Giveaways
The Great Christmas Light Fight
Hell's Kitchen
Making It

Coming Soon:
The Amazing Race
Generation Gap
Little Big Shots
MasterChef Junior
That's My Jam
The Titan Games
Tough As Nails
Videos After Dark
Who Do You Think You Are?

LEGO Masters: There's an argument to be made here for Certain Renewal status for this show, but as of now I'm going to hold off on that. With a 1.4 average thus far, it's the #2 new show on TV this season (if you don't count Jeopardy: The Greatest of All Time as a new show, which I don't). It's averaging a full seven-tenths ahead of the series high of Almost Family, which aired behind The Masked Singer last time around. However, I like to wait a little longer than two episodes to mark new shows as certain renewals (unless they're Masked Singer-level breakouts), and therefore it'll start as a LIKELY RENEWAL, with an upgrade in the near future a real possibility.

Undercover Boss: The way that CBS has treated this show has been confusing, because it's performed pretty well for them and is still treated like a complete afterthought. Its 0.65 average for the four episodes it aired this season isn't anything to get excited about, but for filler, it's a pretty decent number. I could see them just deciding it's not worth bringing back sometime soon, but as of now, there's not much to suggest that. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

24 Hours to Hell and Back: Even though it's taken an absolute shellacking this season airing without The Masked Singer, 24 Hours is still a decent option for Fox to use as midseason or summer filler. Its 0.63 average this season is down a staggering 44% from season two, but going from airing on the same night as TV's #1 show to having a middling 0.7 lead-in will do that to a show. Fox is packed, there's no denying that, but they have a close working relationship with Gordon Ramsay and it's hard to see them canceling a show of his that's performing acceptably, though it isn't unheard of. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

AGT: The Champions: It's not nearly as big as it was in the first season, but the second season of AGT: Champions (one of the earliest in a trend of shows doing "Greatest of All Time" specials lately) delivered reliably strong ratings for NBC. In usual circumstances, I'd consider its performance to be worthy of the certain renewal category. However, this doesn't feel like a concept that can run for ten, fifteen or twenty seasons like most of these reality shows. It's still young enough that it could do a few more seasons, but it wouldn't completely blow my mind if it went away for a while. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL for now.

Survivor, The Masked Singer, American Idol, The Bachelor: Four of the highest-rated shows on TV, three of which are also the longest-running. All are essentially renewed already and I probably won't talk about any of them again for the rest of the season. There's no chance that any of them will be canceled.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll below!

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