NBC Renew/Cancel Week 16: American Auto’s Motor Just May Keep Running

It's another comedy shakeup in the NBC Renew/Cancel this week, as one show sees a hefty upgrade and another reason a likely-permanent conclusion. Keep reading for my updated predictions.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Young Rock (0.25, 0.22-0.31)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
American Auto (0.31, 0.25-0.38)47

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.49, 0.43-0.60)
Lopez vs. Lopez (0.29, 0.24-0.33)
Magnum PI (0.30, 0.26-0.36)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.66, 0.58-0.77)
Chicago Med (0.62, 0.56-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.59, 0.51-0.68)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.48, 0.41-0.62)
Law & Order: SVU (0.59, 0.50-0.69)
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.66-0.98)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Blacklist
New Amsterdam

Already Renewed:
La Brea
Night Court
Quantum Leap

Coming Soon:
Grand Crew

American Auto: It's a show I've been quite harsh on since its debut, but for the second season in a row, I think American Auto may be making a comeback. Its ratings remain wholly underwhelming, but it is looking better as the season progresses, due to its relative stability as Night Court weakens. After debuting to a 0.38 behind a 0.74 (51% retention), it recently received a 0.30 behind a 0.46 (65% retention). That's still cancel-worthy in my book, and it's wasted the best weeks Night Court will ever had, but it at least proves that the show is relatively lead-in independent. Aside from its premiere and one 0.25 this season, the show has done 0.3s for all of its epsideos, regardless of what Night Court has done. Its performance on Peacock is probably what'll decide things here, but I do think NBC will want to renew at least one veteran comedy to join Night Court and (likely) Lopez vs Lopez, and I highly doubt Grand Crew will make much of a renewal argument when it premieres tomorrow. Only two comedy pilots are in development for next season on NBC (one new comedy has already been ordered to series), and unless both are ordered, NBC will need to renew one of its veterans in order to match the number of comedies they had this season's. One thing that gives me a bit of pause is that one of those comedy pilots is created by Justin Spitzer - creator of American Auto. NBC may see that show as a replacement of American Auto, but I'm not going to hold that against it, as we've seen plenty of other creators have multiple shows on the air at once before. American Auto can still truly go either way, but it seems more likely to return than be canceled, and I'm upgrading it to LEANS RENEWAL.

Young Rock: Young Rock wrapped up its third season last week, in truly uneventful fashion, as NBC aired it after a repeat of Lopez vs Lopez. Shows have been renewed before after non-ideal scheduling, but to me, this is another sign that NBC sees Rock as disposable. By saving up Lopez episodes to air with Grand Crew, they're already prioritizing it over Rock, and that does make sense - they've had a full season of data for Rock, and they should know by now how happy they are with its performance. It seems clear that they aren't. In addition to the scheduling mishap, Dwayne Johnson, its star, producer and namesake, sent out a tweet on the night of the finale thanking fans for the "wild journey" and three "amazing seasons." Perhaps this is just an instance of a star being genuinely grateful for his fans, but I think there's more to it, an indication he knows the show won't return, and it makes me even more confident in my LIKELY CANCELATION prediction.

What do you think of my predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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