While we wait for decisions to be announced on remaining shows, we are bringing our own version of March Madness to CBS Renew/Cancel. Below the Week 23 chart is the CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness bracket, followed by discussions and voting polls for this week’s matchups. Vote for whichever shows you would like to see advance to the next round, and feel free to make your bracket predictions in the comments!
Here is the official CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness Bracket. The top 13 seeds go to the shows that have already been renewed, sorted by Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day averages. The next four seeds go to shows with fates yet to be announced, in order of most safe to least safe according to the above predictions. The bottom seed goes to the lone canceled series.
With the bottom seed of the bracket going to the sole canceled show (so far), the two shows currently predicted to be canceled get the 16 and 17 seeds. East New York gets the 16 seed as it is currently in the Leans Cancel category, while True Lies gets the 17 seed as its prediction is Likely Cancel. Their ratings this week did not change their predictions. While True Lies had admirable retention from Lingo, a 0.25 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating was CBS’s lowest-rated scripted show by a significant margin this week. Plus, unlike CSI: Vegas, it’s not fully owned and called CSI: True Lies. East New York is also not owned by CBS and was only 0.03 above NCIS: Los Angeles in a more desirable time slot (the canceled NCIS spinoff tied it in M18-49 share and grew substantially in W18-49 share and A50+ share).
Ratings-wise, S.W.A.T. and NCIS: Los Angeles both deserve to have byes from the play-in round. However, the latter is the only show CBS has canceled so far, and the former may very well join it (it is in the Tilts Renew category now and has fluctuated as far down as Leans Cancel in previous columns).
NCIS: Los Angeles seemingly fell victim to high costs that come as shows age, as well as the declines of the NCIS franchise in general. It was tough to envision CBS ending NCIS while keeping two spinoffs on the air, and assuming NCIS: Hawai’i gets a full third season, it appears likely they are intent on getting the low-rated spinoff to syndication (as predicted). That left NCIS: Los Angeles as the odd show out, a show that is holding its own in a terrible time slot. It is a very similar position to the one NCIS: New Orleans found itself in when it got abruptly canceled in 2021. I can’t imagine whichever show replaces NCIS: Los Angeles next season to do any better than it in the ratings, but considering expenses CBS made a financial decision.
S.W.A.T. could fall victim to CBS’s history of canceling solid Friday dramas in the vein of Hawaii 5-0, MacGyver, and Magnum P.I. In fact, this was predicted before the season began. A pilot season that includes only three new dramas could save S.W.A.T., but it is still considered to be very much on the bubble. It gets the 15 seed due to 13 shows already renewed and a 14th, Blue Bloods, having a stronger renewal prediction than it.
With the 15 seed playing the 18 seed, one of S.W.A.T. and NCIS: Los Angeles is exiting early, much like in reality. The winner advances to a matchup against CBS’s second-highest-rated show, 2 Seed Ghosts.