This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, we have our final new entry of the fall, as Night Court returns for its third season. Plus, midseason news spells disaster for one bubble drama. Keep reading for two updated predictions!
Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.24, 0.17-0.29)
Leans Cancellation:
Found (0.21, 0.18-0.26)
The Irrational (0.22, 0.17-0.31)
Night Court (0.28)
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Likely Renewal:
Chicago Med (0.39, 0.33-0.46)
Happy's Place (0.27, 0.21-0.35)
Law & Order (0.29, 0.25-0.36)
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.38, 0.35-0.46)
Chicago PD (0.34, 0.30-0.36)
Law & Order: SVU (0.34, 0.29-0.40)
Saturday Night Live (0.89, 0.71-1.24)
St. Denis Medical (0.43, 0.34-0.51)
Yet to Premiere:
Grosse Pointe Garden Society
The Hunting Party
Suits: LA
Night Court: This week, Night Court returned for its third season, now demoted to an 8:30 time slot. I've long been of the opinion that this is a sleeper pick for a surprise cancellation, and its return hasn't convinced me otherwise. Its 0.28 premiere is a pretty decent showing, though it does tie its series low. 82% retention of its lead-in is a respectable performance, and not really what convinces me that it's in danger. However, it is important to note that in the past two seasons, we've seen Night Court drop a decent amount over the course of its season, and this year, it'll have longer than ever to drop, with a full season of eighteen episodes. Season one famously dropped nearly two thirds from its premiere to its finale, but it also dropped nearly a full tenth from the start to the end of its second season, as well. In fact, NBC comedies as of late have all had trouble holding their audiences over a season, even when they start well. We don't know where Night Court will end up, but the ratings are currently just OK, and have the potential to drop quite a bit. NBC only partially owns the show, too, so they have to share the profits of this show, unlike with their three other comedies. It's also struggling on Peacock, thus far failing to crack the top ten list on the service at any point this week, while its lead-in is currently the #3 show on the service. A fourth season for this show would also defy recent NBC history. The most recent NBC sitcom to make it past three seasons is The Good Place, which debuted in 2016 and reached its fourth (and final) season in 2019. Few NBC comedies have had any argument for renewal, but Night Court isn't really all that much stronger than Will & Grace, Young Rock or Brooklyn Nine-Nine (the only comedies to reach three seasons since The Good Place) were at this point in their runs. NBC is also losing an entire night of programming, and that night is the night that Night Court is airing on. A renewal would mean a time slot move that they'd have to advertise. I'm not sure that that's worth their while - we've seen how well renewing a show with mediocre ratings and moving it to Friday has worked out with Lopez vs Lopez. A renewal for Night Court would not surprise me much at all, but I'm not betting on it at this point. It LEANS CANCELLATION.
Brilliant Minds: The debuts of new shows and recent ratings developments for some of NBC's other shows pushed Brilliant Minds to the back burner in recent weeks, but it's time for another look at NBC's only new fall drama. This week was a rough one for Brilliant Minds. Not only did it hit a new series low - a paltry 0.17 - on Monday, but NBC also announced their midseason plans. We got detailed plans for every night of the week, but they left a bit of Monday's schedule up in the air. While they announced that Brilliant Minds would be back the first Monday of 2025, NBC didn't bother to announce anything that's airing before it for the three weeks it'll air in the new year. The Voice returns in February with new drama The Hunting Party, so there's a whole month where they'll have to fill two hours of programming with something else. If NBC cared at all about this show, they would give it some form of a support system. Last season, The Irrational had a new AGT spinoff leading into it for its few episodes in early 2024. Even Found, which got stuck with a terrible lead-in in La Brea, did at least have a lead-in. NBC is apparently ceding Mondays for the first month of the year, and burning off Brilliant Minds in the process. It's hard to blame them for not caring. As said above, its ratings are awful. It's hit a series low three weeks in a row, and among NBC shows, only Lopez vs Lopez - airing up against the massive Tyson/Paul fight on Netflix that dragged down ratings across the board last Friday - has rated lower than the 0.17 Brilliant Minds posted this week. Its half-hour breakdowns also suggest its ratings are inflated by The Voice. We've seen it drop over a tenth at the half-hour mark in previous weeks, while this week it hit a 0.15 in the second half. Midseason will give NBC three new dramas to pick from to avoid canceling all of this season's new dramas. Surely at least one of them will do meaningfully better than Brilliant Minds and be an obviously superior renewal choice. NBC doesn't need this show, and NBC doesn't have room for it. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Voice | Brilliant Minds | ||||
| Tues | St. Denis Medical | Night Court | The Voice | The Irrational | ||
| Wed | Chicago Med | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD | |||
| Thurs | Law & Order | Law & Order: SVU | Found | |||
| Fri | Happy's Place | Lopez vs Lopez | Dateline NBC | |||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
