Below are the Week 3 renewal and cancelations predictions for CBS’s 2024-25 TV season, followed by an analysis of key series. There are three prediction changes this week: one upgrade and two downgrades. Let us know what you think by leaving your predictions in the comments!
Prediction Changes-NCIS: Origins is downgraded from Likely Renew to Leans Renew
-Elsbeth is upgraded from Tilts Renew to Leans Renew
-The Equalizer is downgraded from Leans Renew to Tilts Renew
Prediction Key
Week 3 Predictions
NCIS: Origins
NCIS: Origins had a troubling linear data point in its third week on the air, notching a 0.28 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating behind NCIS’s 0.35. Its rating was not only a series low for the new NCIS spinoff, but also would have been a series low for NCIS: Hawai’i. Of course, Origins is less expensive than Hawai’i and natural year-to-year ratings declines must be taken into consideration. It can probably still get renewed with ratings in this range, but is not doing well enough to sit comfortably in a Certain or Likely Renew category. NCIS: Origins could very well keep declining from here, at which point CBS will have to decide if it’s worth keeping around. It is downgraded to Leans Renew this week, back to where it was in Week 1.
Elsbeth
Elsbeth is not a strong linear ratings player. CBS did mention it in their latest multi-platform ratings press release, one that mentioned concrete viewership numbers for very few series. Elsbeth’s renewal will likely depend on how well it holds up throughout the rest of the season, as well as schedule space on a network with higher ratings standards than their counterparts. Elsbeth is not be a linear ratings hit the way the shows that precede it in the Thursday night lineup are. However, a cancelation for a presumably relatively cheap and critically acclaimed series with strong multi-platform viewing boosts would likely be deemed unnecessary. Elsbeth is upgraded to the Leans Renew category this week.
The Equalizer
Like last season, The Equalizer is considered to be one of CBS’s most vulnerable veterans. It would make sense for NBCUniversal to bargain for another season so they can make it appealing in syndication, potentially giving CBS an offer that would be very tough to dismiss. However, The Equalizer is just not showing its worth on CBS’s schedule the way that it used to. It’s being thrown all around Sunday nights, airing in different time slots practically by the week. Its retention from Tracker is unremarkable at best in the key demo, and ugly in total viewers. And unlike Elsbeth, what little CBS has revealed about The Equalizer’s multi-platform viewership hasn’t been all that promising. If The Equalizer is renewed, it’s almost guaranteed to see another time slot downgrade; Sundays at 10 midseason and Fridays being two possibilities. I do think NBCUniversal will do all they can to make a renewal happen, especially given they don’t have the room on their schedule to save it for NBC the way they did with Magnum P.I. The Equalizer gets downgraded to Tilts Renew this week. Expect either an announcement that this is the final season by early 2025, or a decision that comes down to the wire in late spring.
Poppa’s House
Poppa’s House’s second episode confirmed that it’s a time slot hit. It’s a show that will do well when The Neighborhood does well, but will struggle a bit when The Neighborhood has an off week. This isn’t bad per say, as it’s basically the same thing Bob Hearts Abishola did for five seasons. However, there’s one factor indicating Poppa’s House may not get the same pass that the Chuck Lorre sitcom did: favoritism. CBS just does not seem to like Poppa’s House. Barely any footage of it was released prior to its series premiere, arguably demonstrating a lack of faith in the show. It’s also not very prominently featured on Paramount+, at least compared to other CBS sitcoms and new series. Poppa’s House wasn’t even supposed to be a fall launch in the first place; the strike-shortened 2023-24 season pushed it back from a spring 2024 premiere.
In news related to CBS’s comedy development, more cast members have been added to the single-cam workplace comedy pilot DMV. While far from guaranteed to be ordered to series, CBS is clearly committed to developing DMV and at least considering it for a spot on their 2025-26 schedule. That would likely spell trouble for one of the Monday sitcoms. Right now, it’s predicted The Neighborhood will eventually be announced as being in its final season. However, should The Neighborhood get renewed, chances are high that Poppa’s House will not. A decision may have to come soon, depending on how many episodes were ordered for its first season and how long CBS can realistically extend them into the spring.
Poll
Interactive Schedule
To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule any time below. Click on the prediction you would like to make, then tap on the show. For example, if you agree with me that Ghosts is a Certain Renewal, tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on Ghosts and it will fill in the time slot accordingly. If you would like to share, you can do this by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download’. Then drag and drop the image to the comments, or save it to your device and upload it to the comments.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | Poppa’s House | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | |
| Tues | FBI | FBI: International | FBI: Most Wanted | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Summit | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | S.W.A.T. | Fire Country | Blue Bloods | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Equalizer | Encores | ||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Tilts Renew
Tilts Cancel
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled