-Elsbeth is downgraded from Leans Renew to Tilts Renew
Prediction Key
Week 4 Predictions
Elsbeth
For the second week in a row, a show has been downgraded after just having been upgraded the week before. This time, it’s Elsbeth, which just posted a paltry 0.22 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating. While ratings were down across the board on CBS that night, including an identical drop from lead-in Matlock, Elsbeth had little room to fall to begin with. Sure, it did out-rate its time slot competition on ABC and NBC. That is appealing to advertisers who specifically want their ads to be seen in a later Thursday night slot. In general, though, Elsbeth is competing for renewal against its fellow CBS shows — not any show that airs on the other broadcast networks. Its multi-platform ratings have made it more competitive with other CBS series than its linear ratings suggest, but at some point one has to wonder if CBS will keep around a show that simply is not working out all that well on the linear schedule.
We’ll likely have a better idea of Elsbeth’s fate if and when CBS starts handing out early renewals, as well as how their 2025-26 development pans out. It may also depend on if CBS will have to make any strategic changes to appease their incoming owner, Skydance Media. The company is planning to merge with Paramount Global in 2025 in a move that will see Shari Redstone exit the board. There have been no indications of major shakeups at CBS so far, but it’s still not out of the realm of possibility.
Poppa’s House
CBS has extended Poppa’s House episode order to 18 episodes, an extension that was also given to NCIS: Origins. While expected for the latter due to a thin bench, CBS could have gotten creative with their scheduling had they decided to not extend the episode order of Poppa’s House from the original 13 episode order handed to it in spring 2023. The question now is if Poppa’s House can secure a second season. After a strong premiere and a less-strong second airing, Poppa’s House retained a series low of 83% from The Neighborhood in the key demo this past week. It was also the first week where lead-out NCIS’s audience in the A18-49 demo grew from that of Poppa’s House. I still predict that The Neighborhood will be announced as being in its final season by early next year, similar to the announcement NCIS: Los Angeles received in its 14th season last January. If that doesn’t happen, The Neighborhood is probably on track for a renewal and Poppa’s House will find itself in trouble.
Regardless of what happens with Poppa’s House, CBS is very much interested in maintaining a relationship with Damon Wayans Jr. and his production company, Kameron Tarlow. The network has had a first-look deal with him since 2018, and recently extended it through May 2026. Currently in development from the company is firefighter drama Ten House (no relation to Poppa’s), and multi-cam sitcom mother-stepdaughter sitcom Overstepping (on paper, a solid potential companion to Poppa’s House). Given CBS’s new approach to development, it’s unclear which TV season Ten House and Overstepping are being targeted for should they be ordered to series.
The Summit
By now, it’s safe to call The Summit a failed experiment. It’s performing dreadfully on linear, and the lack of a mention of multi-platform ratings can’t be a good sign either. In past years, it probably wouldn’t even be airing anymore; CBS would have plenty of shows waiting on the bench to replace potential fall failures. However, that is not the case anymore, and it appears The Summit will air out its entire episode order.
There are several reasons this happened, from the low budget to promos that didn’t really say much about how the competition worked in execution. However, an often overlooked reason is the time slot. Yes, airing after Survivor has its benefits, and will grab the attention of Survivor viewers who are willing to spend the entirety of prime time tuned into competition series on CBS. What is fails to do is to draw in viewers looking for a new show to watch at 9:30 pm. That time slot has historically been reserved for sitcoms airing after some of a network’s strongest hits of the same genre. With a declining number of sitcoms on broadcast TV, it’s becoming increasingly rare for a show to begin at 9:30 pm. In fact, it’s the only show on CBS’s schedule to begin airing in that time slot. Only two other shows across ABC, NBC, and FOX start at 9:30 pm: Abbott Elementary on ABC, and Krapopolis on FOX. Both time slots are very well established for comedy. The last time ABC did not air a comedy in the Wednesdays at 9:30 pm time slot was 2008-09, a year before Modern Family premiered. The last season FOX did not air a comedy there was the 2001-02 TV season, when The X-Files occupied the time slot. In many (but not all) cases, the time slot was occupied by a cartoon.
The Summit’s ratings are so low that it probably would not have succeeded no matter where it was placed on the schedule. Still, between this and The Amazing Race’s just-okay retention, I think it’s time for CBS to explore other options for the 9:30 pm time slot. That most likely involves a decision between cutting Survivor back down to 60 minutes, or expanding it to 120.
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Interactive Table
To make your own predictions, you can use the interactive schedule any time below. Click on the prediction you would like to make, then tap on the show. For example, if you agree with me that Ghosts is a Certain Renewal, tap on the green ‘Certain’, then tap on Ghosts and it will fill in the time slot accordingly. If you would like to share, you can do this by selecting ‘Save Screenshot’ and ‘Download’. Then drag and drop the image to the comments, or save it to your device and upload it to the comments.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | Poppa’s House | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | |
| Tues | FBI | FBI: International | FBI: Most Wanted | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Summit | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | S.W.A.T. | Fire Country | Blue Bloods | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Equalizer | Encores | ||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Tilts Renew
Tilts Cancel
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled