ABC Renew/Cancel - January 11: Schooled is Likely to be Renewed

It's a new year, and it's time for a new ABC renew/cancel. Since the last edition came out, ABC has announced some premiere and return dates (which includes A Million Little Things moving to Thursdays), The Goldbergs spin-off Schooled has premiered, and we have gotten more datapoints for some of our shows. So, now it's time to take a look at how likely these shows are to return.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
The Kids are Alright (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Single Parents (1.0, 0.8-1.3)
Splitting Up Together (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Likely to be Renewed
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
A Million Little Things (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.8, 0.7-1.0)
Schooled (1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Black-ish (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
The Conners (1.6, 1.3-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)

Schooled: Matching both its lead-in The Goldbergs and lead-out Modern Family at 1.3, Schooled starts out as likely to be renewed. It would have to have a fairly large drop for me to not move it up to certain to be renewed next week. It looks like The Goldbergs has launched a successful spin-off.

Station 19: With the mid-season schedule revealing that Station 19 will go on hiatus and a shorter episode order than was originally announced, I have downgraded the show from certain to likely to be renewed. It seems that ABC is disappointed with how the show is performing, and would rather give new show A Million Little Things a shot behind Grey's Anatomy during the winter, when the long-running show tends to get a nice ratings bump. I still would be surprised if the show were canceled, but it does seem like a possibility now.

Fresh Off the Boat: I remain unsure of this show's fate after getting more optimistic when it posted its first 0.7 of the season. Since then it has done another, upon its January return, but it also did a 0.6 and a 0.5 in its two December episodes. Ultimately, this decision may come down to a combination of how much Fresh Off the Boat is making in syndication, and Friday scheduling for next season.

Speechless: As this show continues to be a weak performer, getting its second 0.4 in December and returning in January with a 0.5 out of Fresh Off the Boat's 0.7, I am considering downgrading it once again. Is ABC going to attempt to get a syndication deal for Speechless, or will they assume they won't get one considering how weak of a performer it is, and cut their losses? I am also thinking more and more recently that the two Friday comedies' fates are tied together; it is likely that either both will be renewed or both will be canceled, as I doubt ABC wants to throw a show onto Fridays with one of the two, considering how these two are performing. For now, I'm still leaning towards a Speechless renewal, but we will see how things go in the coming weeks.

The Rookie: Even though this show did quite poorly upon its return, it was significantly delayed this week due to an address from Donald Trump broadcast at 9:00 Eastern time and ABC's decision to still air all of the shows they planned on airing that night. As a result, I'm not going to read anything into this rating, and instead wait for next week to see if the show truly is weaker now.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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