ABC Renew/Cancel - November 2: The Kids are Alright is Likely to be Renewed

Week three for the Tuesday shows gave us more clarity about the two that were last week listed as toss-ups. I have now made prediction changes for The Kids are Alright and Splitting Up Together. My reasoning for these changes is below.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-season high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Fresh Off the Boat (0.6, 0.5-0.6)
Splitting Up Together (0.8, 0.7-0.9)

Single Parents (1.0, 0.9-1.3)
Speechless (0.5, 0.4-0.5)

Likely to be Renewed
Black-ish (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
How to Get Away with Murder (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
The Kids are Alright (1.3, 1.1-1.4)
A Million Little Things (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Modern Family (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
The Rookie (0.9, 0.8-1.0)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
The Conners (2.0, 1.7-2.4)
The Goldbergs (1.2, 1.0-1.4)
The Good Doctor (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
Grey's Anatomy (1.7, 1.5-1.9)
Station 19 (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

The Kids are Alright: This show really improved its retention from The Conners this week, as it went up two tenths while The Conners was up just a tenth, and it was nearly at its premiere rating with The Conners 25% below its premiere rating. As a result, I would say that The Kids are Alright is certain to get a full season, and likely to get a second season. Getting that second season will depend on how well the show holds up without The Conners, but based on this week, I think it will still manage to do well.

Splitting Up Together: While it did rebound this week, Splitting Up Together is still two tenths behind its Black-ish lead-in, and while that isn't that bad, unrounded preliminary ratings from RJK at Spotted Ratings paint an uglier retention picture, and ABC doesn't need to renew that many comedies. So, I have decided to downgrade Splitting Up Together to likely to be canceled. The strength that it showed with its premiere seems to be gone.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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