Certain to be Canceled:
The Great North (Fox) (0.13, 0.11-0.16)
Raid the Cage (CBS) (0.18, 0.16-0.22)
Likely to be Canceled:
The Snake (Fox) (0.12, 0.10-0.14)
Survival Mode (NBC) (0.14, 0.12-0.16)
Yes, Chef! (NBC) (0.14, 0.11-0.19)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Bachelor in Paradise (ABC) (0.24, 0.20-0.31)
Destination X (NBC) (0.23, 0.17-0.30)
Likely to be Renewed:
The 1% Club (Fox) (0.20, 0.17-0.21)
Gordon Ramsay's Secret Service (Fox) (0.21, 0.19-0.25)
Press Your Luck (ABC) (0.32, 0.30-0.33)
The Quiz with Balls (Fox) (0.18, 0.16-0.21)
Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (NBC) (0.28, 0.23-0.38)
America's Got Talent (NBC) (0.40, 0.31-0.48)
Big Brother (CBS) (0.61, 0.53-0.69)
Celebrity Family Feud (ABC) (0.38, 0.34-0.42)
MasterChef (Fox) (0.23, 0.17-0.28)
Fate Determined:
Bob's Burgers (Fox) (Renewed)
Bob's Burgers (Fox) (Renewed)
Family Guy (Fox) (Renewed)
Grimsburg (Fox) (Renewed)
LEGO Masters (Fox) (Renewed)
Coming Soon:
Coming Soon:
The Fixer (Fox)
Match Game (ABC)
Who Wants to Be a Millionaire (ABC)
Bachelor in Paradise: Though its premiere was respectable in the grand scheme of things, it was on the lower end of what we were used to seeing from Bachelor in Paradise, tying its series low from when it last aired in 2023. Obviously, after taking an entire TV season off, it's not a huge surprise that we'd see it likely return near its previous low. 0.31 is a solid demo rating these days, and there aren't many shows this summer that have consistently rated above that number. However, there were warning signs from the start, which I pointed out when I handed out my initial prediction for the show. Its first half-hour drew a 0.44, and it shed two tenths by the end of the three-hour premiere. Bachelor shows often struggle in the 10 PM hour, but that was a bad sign. And it was just a slice of what was to come the next week. Paradise didn't even manage to match that 0.24 for its full-episode average the next Monday, crashing down to a 0.20 rating. It began the night with a 0.26 rating and was down to a truly inexcusable 0.15 by the night's end. That put it only a few hundredths above a repeat of FBI: Most Wanted, a show that's not even coming back next season, in that hour. It actually did shed a slightly smaller percentage of its 8 PM demo rating that night, so it was at least a bit more stable, but that is still awful. The next night, it aired a special Tuesday airing that was only two hours. Even though it avoided 10 PM, it sunk nearly as low, with a 0.21 average over the night and a 0.16 in the 9:30 half-hour. It's pretty clear at this point that something is wrong here. The show was already put on a brief rest after an underwhelming 2023 season, and ABC didn't really miss it the next season. It wasn't needed in the fall, and with the NBA Finals taking up a large portion of June, they don't really need both The Bachelorette and Bachelor in Paradise in summer. Whichever of the two airs can simply debut in July, and that's enough to get them through the season. With the Bachelorette having a poor season of its own last season (not this poor though...) and tumult behind-the-scenes, Paradise returned this season. In an attempt to breathe new life into a show on the decline, they rebooted the series and brought in new producers to try to right the ship. That clearly hasn't worked, based on these ratings. The Bachelor franchise as a whole is still declining, and nothing they did to shake up Paradise could change that. These ratings are so bad that it's really looking like ABC would be better off without Paradise at all. Repeats of The $100,000 Pyramid drew the same ratings as Paradise got last week when it aired one Monday. Even repeats of Scamanda didn't look much worse. There is one lone saving grace for this show, and it is a pretty major one: it looks to be doing quite well on Hulu. In fact, it hasn't left the #1 spot on their TV streaming list since the season premiered. There's obviously less competition on Hulu in the summer, so being #1 for two weeks straight doesn't necessarily mean it's drawing a huge audience. But it is a positive sign, and the only positive sign for this show so far this season. It's the only thing keeping it as a renewal prediction, because even though linear ratings are awful, doing well on Hulu shows there is at least some interest there. Streaming has also never been a more important factor in renewal decisions than it is right now, so this should be enough to keep it going. But there is a clear replacement for it in The Bachelorette, which also performed well on Hulu, so we might not see it back next season. The Bachelorette performing better next time around could also be enough to kill Paradise for good, unless ABC's willing to get creative with their scheduling. I think it'll be a while before we get any official news on Paradise, but it LEANS RENEWAL at this point, even if it's a linear ratings liability now.
Destination X: While Bachelor in Paradise is dwindling, one show that's somewhat impressed me the last few weeks is Destination X. It's still not a breakout hit, but it's doing well enough for NBC as of late. I downgraded it to a cancellation prediction after two very rough weeks, which saw the show sink to a 0.17 after an abnormally low-rated AGT. With a 0.23 season average, Destination X is still looking questionable for a renewal, but I think it's done enough to be on the right side of the bubble. It is important to note that ratings on this level got Weakest Link canceled by NBC last season, while Password rated a bit higher and is still in limbo (there are talks recently that it will film a new season, though that new season is not official yet). NBC has been fairly hard on their summer series outside of the two staples, so I can't call Destination X a lock with these ratings, especially given its lead-in. But it's doing pretty well for a 10 PM show. It's certainly doing better than all of their new dramas from this season, and it's an outright time slot improvement over the slot's regular season occupant, The Irrational. It's also clearly doing better than the two total bombs that debuted this summer on Monday nights. The show has improved enough - and stayed stable enough - after those rough third and fourth weeks to earn an upgrade this week. It is clearly inflated by AGT, but its performance on Peacock seems to suggest that it does have an audience of its own, as well. It LEANS RENEWAL once again.
What do you think of your predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
