That time is finally here! News on the fates of all broadcast shows is expected to be announced next week. NBC has quite a few shows left to decide on, including every comedy on the network, two Law & Order shows, and their new midseason drama. Read on for my final NBC calls of the 2021-22 TV season.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
The Endgame (0.27, 0.18-0.46)
Kenan (0.31, 0.22-0.37)
Transplant (0.14, 0.13-0.20)
Leans Cancellation:
Grand Crew (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
Leans Renewal:
Mr. Mayor (0.31, 0.22-0.35)
Likely Renewal:
American Auto (0.37, 0.27-0.50)
Young Rock (0.39, 0.32-0.51)
Certain Renewal:
Law & Order (0.53, 0.44-0.74)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.54, 0.44-0.67)
Saturday Night Live (0.90, 0.80-1.04)
Already Renewed:
The Blacklist
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
La Brea
Law & Order: SVU
New Amsterdam
Already Canceled/Final Season:
Ordinary Joe
The Thing About Pam (miniseries)
This Is Us
American Auto: One of two new NBC comedies this season, American Auto was best defined as a "modest" performer for NBC. Averaging a 0.37 in the key 18-49 demo over its first season, with ratings that ranged from 0.27 to 0.50, the show did not pull off the feat that creator Justin Spitzer's previous show, Superstore did. That show helped revitalize NBC comedy, briefly helping the Peacock network have a respectable Thursday night comedy block before ultimately having the plug pulled last season amid dropping ratings. Any comedy block with Auto in it will not likely be particularly competitive in the ratings department. However, it is still NBC's #2 comedy, just two hundredths behind Young Rock. NBC also has a habit of giving second chances to their comedies. I have doubts about how earned it is, but a renewal is looking quite likely here. Chance of renewal: 80%
The Endgame: NBC had three new dramas this season, one of which rated very well for them and can hopefully be a part of the NBC lineup for years to come. That show is not The Endgame. The Endgame is a show that premiered to a 0.46 in the demo and has gone as low as 0.18, which I guess is impressive in a way. While its lead-in has done nothing to help it, I just can't imagine NBC renewing a show that went this low, especially with no need to hand out a pity drama renewal to a new show this year, thanks to La Brea. Ordinary Joe was canceled for ratings like this, and I see little reason to believe The Endgame will survive them. Chance of renewal: 10%
Grand Crew: The other new NBC comedy this season, Grand Crew, was one of the network's lowest-rated shows this season, with a 0.31 average. That's not a disastrous drop from American Auto, but still noticeable enough to make it appear that their futures will diverge quite a bit. I have no idea what NBC's plans are with their comedies next year, but they've already ordered one new one, with at least one more pickup on the way. That would suggest, at least to me, that two current comedies will be canceled. While that was not the case last season (3/4 comedies were renewed), they had less comedies last year. I don't see how NBC could possibly justify expanding comedies this year, when the ratings are downright abysmal for every single one of them. Something has to go, and I personally believe that this will be one of them. It doesn't have the same creative advantage that the others have, not coming from NBC favorites like Tina Fey (Mr. Mayor), Lorne Michaels (Kenan) or Justin Spitzer (American Auto). I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it renewed, as NBC comedy is a huge mystery this year, but I don't expect it. Chance of renewal: 49%
Kenan: This show has had its fair share of chances, and it's blown nearly all of them. After a very solid premiere in 2021, Kenan slid over the course of its first season and began to look downright embarrassing. Still, NBC gave the show, starring SNL's longest-running cast member Kenan Thompson, a second chance. Ratings dropped even further in season two, with only a 0.31 average. Somehow, it was the NBC sophomore comedy that dropped the least from season one (Congratulations, I guess?), but it was also the comedy with the least room to fall. Airing back-to-back episodes on Mondays at 8, the show consistently saw steep declines for the 8:30 episode each week, ultimately ending with an ugly 0.22 in the demo. I won't put it past Lorne Michaels to work his magic again, but this should be a pretty clear cancellation. Chance of renewal: 30%
Law & Order: I am certainly not going to be the person to argue that NBC's revival of the Law & Order franchise's parent show has been a runaway success. Its 0.53 average makes it the lowest-rated Law & Order show, despite airing at 10. It consistently rates behind CBS and ABC's programming in its slot, and is, in general, just a mediocre performer. However, this is a brand that has become so valuable to NBC, created by Dick Wolf, a man that has done more for NBC than any other creator. After ruthlessly canceling it the last time it was on, I don't see why NBC would cancel it after a single season when they went through the trouble of reviving it. Chance of renewal: 95%
Law & Order: Organized Crime: It might not be the massive hit it was early on in season one, but Chris Meloni's SVU spinoff has remained a solid performer for NBC, retaining a decent portion of SVU and consistently drawing 0.5s in a tough slot. While the Law & Order block isn't nearly as strong as the Chicago block, it's still an easy way to fill in a night, and Organized Crime is a key component of it. Chance of renewal: 100%
Mr. Mayor: Oh boy. I have no clue what NBC is going to do with Mr. Mayor. Yes, it is created by the NBCUniversal comedy team of Robert Carlock and Tina Fey, who NBC clearly has a soft spot for. But its ratings are pretty awful. Its lead-in, Young Rock, is also doing awful, so it's hard to blame Mr. Mayor's awful ratings solely on it. The fact that NBC is airing the show at 8:30 instead of 8 already seems to show that they don't prioritize it as much as Young Rock or American Auto, and may see it as expendable. Ratings-wise, it certainly is. It's hard for me to imagine any other comedy doing much worse than this week's 0.22. However, Mr. Mayor is reportedly strong on streaming platforms, and (per Deadline) there have been talks of starting up a season three writer's room. This is a case in which ratings are pulling me one way while external factors are pulling me in another. I don't know what will happen, but I'm going to bet on NBC giving it another season due to its creative team. Chance of renewal: 51%
Saturday Night Live: I don't think I need to elaborate. Chance of renewal: 100%
Transplant: NBC doesn't produce this show, and only has the US distribution rights to it. So they can't cancel it entirely, just decide against airing the already-ordered third season. That's what I expect them to do, as they've already announced plans to move the show off to Saturdays beginning at the end of the month. That seems like a sign that they aren't interested in having it waste space on their schedule, and are putting it in the lowest-priority slot possible. I don't think they're going to bother airing the third season. Chance of renewal: 20%
Young Rock: Despite a massive year-to-year decline and embarrassing ratings, Young Rock still looks like a relative lock. Why? It's still NBC's top comedy, despite wasting so much potential. Aside from the infamous Roseanne scandal, I can't think of an instance of a network canceling their top comedy series in recent memory. A 0.39 average, though extremely underwhelming, is enough to secure a renewal as an NBC comedy, though I do think this show's lifespan is going to be very limited. Chance of renewal: 75%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the final poll of the week!
