Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
A Million Little Things (0.26, 0.21-0.31)
Big Sky (0.30, 0.25-0.37)
Home Economics (0.33, 0.25-0.42)
The Wonder Years (0.41, 0.30-0.67)
Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.51, 0.40-0.65)
Certain Renewal:
N/A
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary
The Good Doctor
The Goldbergs
Grey's Anatomy
The Rookie
Station 19
Already Canceled/Final Season:
Blackish
Promised Land
Queens
Women of the Movement (miniseries)
Big Sky: Anyone who has read my renew/cancel articles this season knows that I've gone back and forth on Big Sky all season. On the one hand, ABC seems to like the show a lot. On the other, it's one of the biggest flops on broadcast television and it completely deserves to be canceled. It's hard to know just how important first-run ratings really are in this day and age. Last season, NBC canceled numerous shows said to do well on streaming because their first-run ratings were just that abysmal. I don't know if that's what ABC is going to do here, but based on the way they've treated the show, I am currently anticipating that they will bring it back. ABC only has a few drama pilots that are even in consideration for a fall premiere, which seems to suggest that some low-rated shows are coming back. With Queens already canceled, that's one slot that needs to be filled. While ABC could cancel Big Sky as well, I think there are more signs pointing towards renewal than not. Chance of renewal: 55%
The Conners: It's not exactly a hit, but The Conners is still a decent performer for ABC, rating as their #3 comedy this season. While I don't expect it to last all that much longer, as it is expensive, I also don't think this is the season they'll get rid of it. There are talks of ABC having entered negotiations with the show's cast for contracts for next season, an elaborate process that I doubt they'd go through if they weren't fully intent on renewing the show. While deals could fall through unexpectedly, that feels unlikely, and the show remains likely to be back next season. Chance of renewal: 80%
Home Economics: Earlier in the season, I was pretty sure that Home Economics would be two-and-done. It seemed like a textbook example of such a case: a show that was given a second chance after mediocre ratings in season one, and then continued to have mediocre ratings in season two. There didn't seem to be much potential, and it seemed like a clear cancellation. Yet, as the season went on, things began too look better. Other ABC comedies dropped, while Home Economics stayed relatively stable, even if the ratings it was stable at aren't all that impressive. ABC has continued to promote the show heavily, which I see as a sign that they aren't ready to give up on it yet. I don't know if they will ultimately renew it, but ABC heavily promoting low-rated shows has been a sign in the past that they were about to renew them. As of right now, I'm willing to bet on a renewal for Home Economics, though a cancellation is fully justified (which is something you can say about pretty much all of the shows that ABC has yet to renew). Chance of renewal: 55%
A Million Little Things: This is another show I've gone back and forth on, despite the show's stability over the course of the season. The reality is that the ratings are very low, but I do believe the show is slightly stronger than Big Sky, given how much weaker and less compatible its lead-in is. The end is clearly near, but is it here yet? It's hard to say. The show's creator, DJ Nash, says that ABC told him not to wrap the show up this season, which feels to me like a sign that ABC was at least leaning towards a fifth season pickup when they told him that. While I can still see a cancellation being a possibility, I don't see much of a reason for things to have changed for the show since they told DJ Nash not to wrap it up a few months ago. Business is business, and not every show gets to wrap up on their own terms, but my gut is telling me that ABC will give this show one final season. Chance of renewal: 51%
Queens: Last week, ABC seemingly couldn't wait any longer to cancel Queens, announcing the show's cancellation a bit ahead of when it was expected. While the announcement was a bit early, the result was far from a surprise. This was a correct prediction for me.
The Wonder Years: The Wonder Years reminds me a lot of Mixed-ish from a few seasons ago: a fall comedy that they were always fully intent on renewing no matter what, even if the ratings were dreadful. Like Mixed-ish , The Wonder Years' performance has gotten progressively worse as the season has gone on, after a solid start. ABC had a huge promo for this show, and was clearly betting on it performing well. It has not, but it continues to be heavily promoted, with ABC also airing repeats of the show even on nights it doesn't air. I do think they could decide to just cut their losses now, as it's hard to ever imagine this show becoming a ratings asset for ABC, but I don't think it's the more likely outcome. Chance of renewal: 60%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the final poll of the week of the season!
