2018-19 Reality Renew/Cancel, Part 4: American Idol Isn’t A Sure Thing

It's been awhile since I've updated the reality renew/cancel, but there's been many premieres since then, and it's time for an all-new update. Stay tuned for initial predictions for American Idol, Mental Samurai, The World's Best, and more!

Certain to be Canceled:

Likely to be Canceled:
Dancing With the Stars: Juniors
The World's Best

Leans Cancellation:
Mental Samurai

Leans Renewal:
Child Support
The Great American Baking Show
Match Game
World of Dance

Likely to be Renewed:
American Idol
Celebrity Big Brother
MasterChef Junior
The Titan Games

Certain to be Renewed:
24 Hours To Hell and Back
48 Hours
60 Minutes
America's Got Talent: The Champions
The Bachelor
Dateline NBC
The Voice

The Amazing Race
Dancing With the Stars
Ellen's Game of Games
The Great Christmas Light Fight
Hell's Kitchen
The Masked Singer
Shark Tank
America's Funniest Home Videos

The Alec Baldwin Show

Coming Soon:
Million Dollar Mile
Spin the Wheel
The Wall

American Idol: From a ratings standpoint, this should be an incredibly easy renewal. It's heavily down, but it still rates better than much of the ABC lineup and has been a big improvement on fall's timeslot occupants (though it is in the neighborhood of the winter AFHV/Shark Tank lineup). From a financial standpoint, it's a different story. The show is far more expensive than most reality shows, a fact that caused Fox to put an end to it a few years ago. I'm not expecting ABC to do the same, at least not yet, as it as still a solid player. However, costs are likely going to have to be cut, and it wouldn't be that hard to imagine a deal falling through. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL and we'll see where it goes from there.

The World's Best: It pains me to not put this show straight into certain cancellation. However, CBS never gave up on it, even after it hit a 0.4. I expect that that was mainly to keep it from sinking any further and to spare embarrassment, and not really because they plan on renewing it. This show is arguably one of the biggest flops of all-time, and it deserved to be pulled from the schedule, so a renewal shouldn't even be considered a possibility. But I do think there's a chance CBS won't want to admit defeat so soon, and they'll give it another season in a low-priority slot (or in Summer). This is an extreme long-shot, but it's enough for me to "only" place it as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Mental Samurai: Cheap reality filler rarely sets the world on fire. So is the case with Mental Samurai, which had an unspectacular start on Tuesday with a 0.7. With a 0.8 MasterChef Junior lead-in, not much more could have been expected. In week two, it held up reasonably well, down a tenth as MasterChef Junior also dipped. It certainly isn't a huge flop, and it probably had the best premiere of any of last week's series premieres (not that that was difficult). If it can remain on this level retention-wise, it's certainly in contention for renewal, though it isn't a favorite for renewal at this point. It starts out in the LEANS CANCELLATION category, though it's possible for it to pull off an upset and get another season.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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