NBC Renew/Cancel Week 7: A Post-Finale Update on Manifest

Since our last NBC renew/cancel update, we've seen a new series premiere, a season finale, and plenty of renewals. Stay tuned for an initial prediction for The Enemy Within and updates on The Enemy Within and Manifest.

Certain Cancellation:
I Feel Bad

Likely Cancellation: 

Leans Cancellation:


Leans Renewal: 
The Blacklist
The Enemy Within

Likely Renewal:

Certain Renewal:

Law & Order: SVU
Saturday Night Live
This Is Us

Already Renewed:
Will & Grace
The Good Place
New Amsterdam
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Already Canceled/Final Season:
Midnight, Texas

Coming Soon:
Good Girls
The Village
AP Bio

Manifest: I said a few updates ago that I wasn't ready to upgrade Manifest to certain renewal despite its solid performances all Fall, mostly due to its straight-up ugly trajectory. Well, I'm still not there. There are arguments for this, such as its continued Its performance this Winter was pretty decent, and it was a lot more stable than it was in Fall. However, it still has some things working against it. I already mentioned the awful trajectory, but the show is also not solely owned and produced by NBC Universal, unlike many other parts of the lineup. I doubt that they would cancel over this, but with the very limited scheduling space and the fact that the show will likely have to find a new home on the schedule, anything is possible. I would be surprised to see Manifest canceled, but it wouldn't be the most surprising cancellation of recent memory (or even the most surprising NBC cancellation of recent memory). It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

The Enemy Within: With a 1.2 debut on Monday, the future of The Enemy Within doesn't look all that clear. It's not a bad debut, especially for 10 PM, but it had a lot of help with a strong 2.1 lead-in from the Voice. It's hard to predict this show after just one rating, since it's really all about how the show holds up in the coming months. However, the premiere datapoint shows that it has life in it. After all, it's an improvement on anything Manifest did this year (albeit with a higher lead in than the 1.7 AGT Champions averaged) and it was the #2 NBC 10 PM series of the week. It will get lower from here, but as of right now, I'll at least start it out on the renewal side with a LEANS RENEWAL prediction.

The Blacklist: The Blacklist didn't air last week, instead being replaced by a Voice encore, but NBC didn't see any difference in the ratings from a typical Blacklist performance. The fact that a random repeat did just as well as an original episode doesn't make the Blacklist look very good. The show, which is co-owned and co-produced by Sony and NBCU, is one of NBC's weakest productions, and that's been clear for awhile. The ratings aren't completely horrifying for Fridays, but they don't exactly make a case for a renewal. Despite that, I still expect it to return for one last season. Its Friday partner Blindspot is in far more danger, as Blacklist is a legacy show for the network that will probably get to have some closure, maybe with another midseason premiere. The crowded NBC slate gives me doubts, but it LEANS RENEWAL for now. It's certainly not safe, but there's shows in more grave danger.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!

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