Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.28, 0.26-0.29)
Likely Renewal:
9-1-1 (0.33, 0.30-0.35)
9-1-1: Nashville (0.24, 0.18-0.29)
Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)
The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)
Grey's Anatomy (0.20, 0.13-0.27)
Shark Tank (0.15, 0.11-0.20)
Shifting Gears (0.36, 0.31-0.45)
Will Trent (0.37, 0.34-0.40)
Certain Renewal:
20/20 (0.17, 0.12-0.23)
Abbott Elementary (0.32, 0.26-0.43)
America's Funniest Home Videos (0.30, 0.24-0.39)
Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)
High Potential (0.35, 0.28-0.42)
Already Canceled/Ending:
Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)
Coming Soon:
American Idol
The Bachelorette
Celebrity Jeopardy!
The Greatest Average American
RJ Decker
Scrubs
9-1-1: Nashville: After a solid start, 9-1-1: Nashville has begun to run out of steam. It dropped to a new series low for its midseason finale in November, and I avoided addressing it to avoid harping on what could potentially be a fluke rating. However, it then returned even lower than that for its midseason premiere, drawing just a 0.18 rating out of its 0.31 9-1-1 lead-in. That's just 58% retention of the most compatible lead-in ABC could possibly give the show. Grey's Anatomy rose a bit from its midseason finale, narrowing the gap between the two shows to just three hundredths, despite 10 PM being a notably tougher slot. It was a really terrible return for Nashville, one that prompts the question of whether Nashville can really be a long-term offering for ABC. It certainly doesn't look like it has the juice to one day replace 9-1-1 on the schedule, as that show has nearly a decade on Nashville and is still performing nearly a tenth above it. Heck, by just its seventh episode, 9-1-1: Nashville has already dipped below Doctor Odyssey's series low (0.19), and that show was considered a spectacular failure (admittedly, 9-1-1 was rating significantly better in the spring than it is so far this season). Nashville's multiplatform ratings were pretty promising, averaging 9.2 million viewers and a 1.82 in the demo for its first three episodes with 35 days of multiplatorm viewing. However, new shows tend to be well-sampled at the beginning, especially if they're part o a well-known franchise, so we probably need more data to know its true streaming strength. If it's dropping on there like it has on linear TV, that will be a cause for concern for ABC. For now, I do think it remains a heavy favorite for renewal. ABC dragged their heels on canceling Doctor Odyssey, and never actually did so officially, all because it was a Ryan Murphy production. A show with the official 9-1-1 branding is going to get even more leeway, especially if its streaming ratings aren't completely abysmal like Odyssey's were. I think their investment in Murphy has been a total bust, at least as far as ABC's concerned, but Disney clearly loves the guy, and they have a major deal in place with him. They're going to want something to show for it on ABC, and they'll likely nurture 9-1-1: Nashville and give it time to hopefully grow into something valuable. Maybe in a year from now, if Nashville is really struggling, they'll consider letting it go. But I can't see it not getting a second chance if there are literally any signs of life, which there are. It remains a likely renewal in spite of its recent struggles.
The Rookie: I began The Rookie in a renewal category last week despite continued doubts about its long-term future, because its streaming performance is simply too strong to not give it the benefit of the doubt. It's a frequent Hulu chart-topper, and it was a top ten series on broadcast TV in both the demo and in total viewers in the mutliplatform rankings in 2025. It's closer to the end than the beginning, but there's nothing suggesting that this has to necessarily be the final season, and there aren't any rumors that this is the end. Still, last week's announcement from ABC that it was moving from Tuesdays at 10 to Mondays at 10 was a bit eyebrow-raising. The move puts The Rookie back behind American Idol, where it had struggled in the past, retaining the hit reality show at a pretty poor rate. It's thrived as part of an all-drama block, so it'll be interesting to see if its same-day ratings struggle without a compatible block to air in. I except its streaming ratings to remain strong either way, but I do wonder if the move is an indication that ABC is moving away from The Rookie, attempting to pair up Will Trent and High Potential with another younger series (in this case, RJ Decker, but they can easily replace that show next year if it doesn't work out) as The Rookie is slowly phased out. It could just as easily be an attempt to revitalize Monday nights, which struggled last year as The Bachelor faltered and ABC settled for Hulu repeats at 10. With Idol and The Rookie paired up, Mondays should be a significant improvement from last year. If ABC plans to continue with this scheduling, it'll be hard for The Rookie to air with new spinoff The Rookie: North, but The Rookie wasn't paired up with its first spinoff, Feds, at the beginning, so it is possible. It's also possible that ABC is setting up their schedule for The Rookie: North to launch post-Idol next year, as they've used the show (unsuccessfully) to try and launch several dramas in the past. In other words, it's hard to draw any concise conclusion from this time slot change or The Rookie, as there are many possibilities for what it can indicate. It does not cause me to stray from my prior belief that The Rookie is more likely to be renewed than canceled, but it does add some additional questions about potential scheduling for a future season. Post-Idol is far from a dead time slot, so it will be interesting to see how The Rookie transitions to this new Monday night hour. It still LEANS RENEWAL as it continues to perform well on streaming, and continues to be a 10 PM highlight.
Interactive Schedule:
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | Monday Night Football | |||||
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | The Golden Bachelor | Shark Tank | ||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||
| Sat | Saturday Night Football | |||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||
Renewed
Certain Renew
Likely Renew
Leans Renew
Leans Cancel
Likely Cancel
Certain Cancel
Canceled
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week below!
