Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.26)
The Rookie: It's hard to truly assess just how long The Rookie has left in it. For a while, I was convinced last season would be the end, before its solid performances and the lack of a pre-announced ending convinced me that it was probably getting an eighth season. With additional information, it's pretty easy to see why ABC kept it around. The Rookie was a top five show for ABC last season in the full-season multiplaform+35 rankings in both metrics, with nearly 11 million viewers and a 2.5 in the 18-49 demo for its seventh season. It is, however, only partially owned, and likely expensive. Not only do shows naturally rise in cost as they age, but it also has a large principal cast with many long-time cast members. It's why many shows struggle to make it past that 7-8 season mark, and why The Rookie is a tougher call than its ratings imply. A 0.26 is a fine showing for a 10 PM drama, especially when its delayed ratings gains are so strong, but the overall expense of the show will catch up to it eventually. ABC is charging ahead with a second spinoff of the show, set to be titled The Rookie: North. That spins has a pilot order and a cast, so it's much further along than when I was discussing it in relation to The Rookie's renewal odds last season, and it's likely planned for a 2026-27 debut, if it is ordered. I wondered last year, and I wonder again, if this spinoff is seen less as a companion for The Rookie and more as a replacement for it. ABC does have several vacant spots on its schedule (the Wednesdays at 9 hour, for example, is completely barren), but it's still hard to imagine them having two Rookie shows on their schedule together for an extended period of time. Still, The Rookie: North doesn't necessarily mean that The Rookie is nearing its end, and ABC hasn't given us any indication that this will be its final season. I definitely think it's the next ABC veteran drama on its way out, but this doesn't feel like its year. It starts as LEANS RENEWAL.
Will Trent: After an incredible return last year that saw Will Trent premiering up 50% from its season two premiere and hitting a new series high, it came down to earth a bit this year, returning steady with last season's average and up a touch from the finale. It's not quite the amazing performance we got last year, especially when you consider it had practically zero competition, but a 0.34 isn't anything ABC can get upset about. I mean, that's higher than High Potential (a far stronger show overall) just an hour after it, and higher 9-1-1. Will Trent is a pretty clear success for ABC at this point, and it's probably not in much - if any - danger. One thing worth remembering, though, is that it is among ABC's weaker series in multiplatform ratings, at least in the key demo (which admittedly does matter less on streaming). It wasn't concerningly low on streaming, but it definitely didn't show gains on the level o High Potential or The Rookie. It did well in total viewers, though, so a somewhat-weak multiplatform demo rating barely even registers as a problem for ABC, considering that it performs well on the night it airs and is part of a very solid lineup for ABC. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL, because I do want to see how it holds up against increased competition (it noticeably declined last season when CBS returned), but there's no need for concern so far.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | Monday Night Football | |||||
| Tues | Dancing with the Stars | High Potential | ||||
| Wed | Shifting Gears | Abbott Elementary | The Golden Bachelor | Shark Tank | ||
| Thurs | 9-1-1 | 9-1-1: Nashville | Grey's Anatomy | |||
| Fri | Celebrity Wheel of Fortune | 20/20 | ||||
| Sat | Saturday Night Football | |||||
| Sun | The Wonderful World of Disney | |||||
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week below!
