Welcome to another edition of FOX Renew/Cancel. In this edition, every show that is yet to have its fate announced will be given a write-up as to the reasoning behind the prediction. Last season, every FOX Renew/Cancel announcement made on or before upfronts was a correct prediction for The TV Ratings Guide, and shortly we'll find out if that will be repeated or not.
To make correct predictions, the reported ad rates of each show were compared to the ratings of each show. You can read more into this methodology by looking at the FOX Renew/Cancel by clicking here. This season, I've decided to add unscripted shows into the equation; however, with or without them, predictions do not change.
Shows in the table are listed least safe to most safe on the renewal side, and most safe to least safe on the cancelation side. So, if a show is at the bottom of the Leans Renewal category, it means I am less confident it will be renewed than the others. On the other hand, the show at the top of the Leans Cancelation category will be the one I am least confident in the cancelation prediction.
Be sure to let me know what you think of the predictions in the comments below, and leave your own too!
While this is not officially the final predictions of the season, it very well could be, depending on how shows perform in the next few days.
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Certain Cancelation/Ending |
Likely Cancelation |
Leans Cancelation |
Leans Renewal |
Likely Renewal |
Certain Renewal |
Renewed |
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New Girl (Ending) |
The X-Files |
Gotham |
LA to Vegas |
Lethal Weapon |
Family Guy |
The Simpsons |
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The Exorcist |
Ghosted |
The Mick |
Lucifer |
Brooklyn Nine-Nine |
Bob's Burgers |
The Orville |
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The Last Man On Earth |
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The Gifted |
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9-1-1 |
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Empire |
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The Resident |
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Star |
Overview
FOX is currently averaging a nice round 1.00 in Live + Same Day, Adult 18-49 ratings. For the sake of it, the median rating is a 0.98. Here is how each prediction's write-up will begin:
Current: The percentage of FOX's average a show is currently averaging.
Target: The percentage of FOX's average ad rate that a show has for its ad rate.
I've found success in using this to predict renew/cancels of over-performing freshmen shows, as well as in mediocre-rated veteran shows. If a show is underperforming, the network likely needs to decide if the ratings would be sustainable under a lower ad rate, as underperforming shows lead to dreaded make goods.
While AdAge and Variety both report ad rates, I find Variety's to be more useful give they have reported more shows than AdAge.
Bob's Burgers
Current (Average): 109
Current (Median): 111
Target: 67
Bob's Burgers has a theatrical movie release coming in 2020, and ratings higher this season than they were last season. The show still has leftover episodes that will be able to bring it into next season, the question is if and when the network will order another production cycle. We might not hear about that before upfronts.
Prediction: Certain Renewal
The Simpsons
Current (Average): 151
Current (Median): 155
Target: 107
Renewed
Ghosted
Current (Average): 117
Current (Median): 119
Target: 97
Ghosted is a really odd case, where the ratings weren't that bad, yet FOX mysteriously took it off the schedule and still has not said if/when it will return to air the rest of the season 1 episodes. This is an oddity for the ad rates/ratings thing, as it likely would be underperforming it if had to air in the spring with a lower lead-in. If this show is renewed, I might be kicking myself a bit.
Prediction: Likely Cancelation
Family Guy
Current (Average): 117
Current (Median): 119
Target: 113
Family Guy has had a solid season. It is over-performing and has done a nice job holding down the 9pm hour on Sundays for FOX. It shouldn't have much to worry about, though like Bob's Burgers, we might not be hearing a decision on upfronts. Maybe it'll come silently in a press release for another show. Wouldn't be the first time.
Prediction: Certain Renewal
The Last Man On Earth
Current (Average): 79
Current (Median): 81
Target: 73
Not everyone is optimistic on The Last Man On Earth's chances. Will Forte, the creative force behind the show as well as a lead cast member, was often actively telling people last season the show was on the bubble, but has not done so this season. It also is Sunday's lowest-rated show. Despite having great trends through most of the fall and doing solid when it got to air under the football halo in January for the first time ever, it's cooled down a little bit this spring. That being said, I really don't think it's doing *that* bad, and FOX has loved the show for so long that I think they'll give it a chance to have a proper ending, primarily for future streaming watchers. Plus, by the looks of it, it isn't causing make goods.
Prediction: Leans Renewal
Lucifer
Current (Average): 83
Current (Median): 85
Target: 93
This is a tough one. FOX will likely have to decide if Lucifer is still financially feasible for them at a decently lower ad rate. That could be a tough sell given they do not own the show, and therefore will not make any potential syndication money off of it. That being said, an 83 isn't that bad and could fit in well on Fridays; it would certainly be an improvement upon The Exorcist. This one is up to Warner Brothers to lower the licensing fees, which is something I think they'll do given it seemingly does well with streaming numbers. I can see why this show could get canceled.
Prediction: Leans Renewal
Lethal Weapon
Current (Average): 99
Current (Median): 101
Target: 110
Reportedly, there are behind-the-scenes troubles with Lethal Weapon, with a lead cast member being unhealthily distracting. Also, it has had something of a rough spring ratings-wise. A renewal would likely lead to lower ad revenue, and like with Lucifer, FOX does not own the show. Unlike Lucifer, it doesn't seem to have outstanding streaming numbers. Also unlike Lucifer, being part of a movie franchise and being a procedural could prove to be a good sell in syndication, giving Warner Brothers more of a reason to lower the licensing fees. Could it come down to choosing one of Lethal Weapon and Lucifer? Very possible, and both make solid cases for renewal and something of a case for cancelation. Lethal Weapon's L+SD ratings are higher, though, so I'm giving it increased chances.
Prediction: Likely Renewal
The Mick
Current (Average): 73
Current (Median): 74
Target: 84
FOX gave The Mick a huge push when it first premiered, giving it a high-profile Sunday premiere and another episode that aired under the football halo. While at first it looked promising on Tuesdays, it soon settled at low ratings, around 0.6-0.7 in A18-49. By the end of the season, it was shoved to 9:30pm in favor of LA to Vegas. It rates in the same vicinity of Brooklyn Nine-Nine, which has had a strong spring and may push out The Mick. While certainly a creative show, it didn't seem to connect with a wide audience. Maybe FXX will take note if it gets canceled.
Prediction: Leans Cancelation
Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Current (Average): 73
Current (Median): 74
Target: 78
Brooklyn Nine-Nine had a pretty terrible first half of the season ratings-wise, and is so lucky FOX ordered a full season. They don't own it and the syndication deal NBCUniversal is getting for it only covers 100 episodes, which it is past. While it looked like a goner, the move back to Sunday really put some new life in it, and it's almost performing on par to what advertisers paid for at this point. This is another situation where if canceled, I'll be very mad at myself.
Prediction: Likely Renewal
Empire
Current (Average): 186
Current (Median): 191
Target: 259
Underperforming, but still huge.
Renewed
Star
Current (Average): 132
Current (Median): 136
Target: 127
There's really no case for a cancelation here, unless something major is going on behind the scenes. This show has everything going for it.
Prediction: Certain Renewal
UPDATE: Renewed
Gotham
Current (Average): 78
Current (Median): 80
Target: 80
Gotham is the true definition of a bubble show. The ratings are OK, but not great, and advertisers are more or less getting what they paid for. But FOX doesn't own the show, and we already have Lucifer and Lethal Weapon for OK-rated unowned shows. It could barely get a 0.6 A18-49 these last couple weeks, and with constant year-to-year declines, doesn't have much potential for growth. If renewed, it'll probably be Friday spackle and be a sad sight to watch. My guess is Warner Brothers will push for Lucifer over it.
Prediction: Leans Cancelation
The Orville
Current (Average): 124
Current (Median): 128
Target: 74
Advertisers definitely did not expect that football boost for those first two weeks. Even without the football halo, though, it did a solid job on Thursdays in the fall.
Renewed
The Exorcist
Current (Average): 41
Current (Median): 42
Target: 44
Despite low ratings in its first season, The Exorcist was renewed, and the comparison to the ad rates told me that. This time around, ratings are even lower, and I just can't see how FOX justifies another go-around, especially when they have shows like Lucifer just itching to take the time slot.
Prediction: Certain Cancelation
9-1-1
Current (Average): 164
Current (Median): 168
Target: 92
Renewed
The X-Files
Current (Average): 97
Current (Median): 99
Target: 148
The X-Files was a huge disappointment this season given how well it did last time, and one of the stars has expressed disinterest at continuing, at least for next season. I don't expect to hear a decision on it this week, but I'm also not too high on its chances.
Prediction: Likely Cancelation (Ended?)
LA to Vegas
Current (Average): 73
Current (Median): 74
Target: 90
LA to Vegas is the type of show that I think could thrive on Sundays, but it has not received that chance yet. A renewal really depends on how much FOX likes the show or not; I can't see it returning unless it gets a time slot upgrade. The ad rate/rating comparison has proved more or less useless with freshmen shows that were underperforming, and they can easily make LA to Vegas cheaper by having more scenes on the plane. Having said this, it decreased two tenths to a 0.5 A18-49 rating for its finale, so is there even any interest? I'm thinking they give it a pity renewal and a small order.
Prediction: Leans Renewal
The Resident
Current (Average): 104
Current (Median): 106
Target: 82
The Resident has done well on Mondays this season, doing better than Lucifer and likely as good if not better as The Gifted would have been doing this time of year. It deserves a renewal according to its ratings.
Prediction: Certain Renewal
UPDATE: Renewed (click on 'Renewed' to be redirected to renewal announcement article)
The Gifted
Current (Average): 101
Current (Median): 103
Target: 112
It's really tough to pinpoint how a new show will do, and it seems like The Gifted did slightly worse than advertisers were expecting. Still, above-average ratings are nothing to fret.
Renewed
