It's been a few months since the last Cable Renew/Cancel, and there have been many premieres in that time on comedy Central, USA Network, FX, and Hallmark. Keep reading for initial predictions for shows like The Rainmaker, Dexter: Resurrection and Digman, plus prediction shifts for shows like Adults.
The Rainmaker: Debuting just a week after Resident Alien wrapped its run, The Rainmaker is in a pretty unique situation. USA is a network with zero other scripted series at the moment, with Resident Alien being canceled and new drama Anna Pigeon not set to debut until next year. If The Rainmaker is canceled, it'll leave USA without a single ongoing series. Given that USA is said to be interested in having more scripted series on their lineup, I think they certainly want to renew The Rainmaker. Friday night at 10 PM is not typically seen as an ideal time slot for any show, but it is the best slot USA could give it, as it's the slot directly behind WWE SmackDown, by far the highest lead-in they could give it. That lead-in didn't do much of anything to help Resident Alien, and it honestly doesn't look like it's helping The Rainmaker much, either. It's aired just two episodes so far, so it's very early in its run, but it debuted to a 0.07 in the key demo and was down to a 0.06 the next week, while SmackDown drew a 0.35 for both weeks. In total viewers, The Rainmaker fared better, actually rising from 530,000 viewers to 600,000 from the first episode to the second, and holding on to 37% of SmackDown's audience the first week and 47% the next, much better retention than in the demo. Wrestling fans are pretty unique audience, which mostly tunes in just for the WWE itself and doesn't worry about sticking around for the show airing after. I don't think a legal drama is a show USA expected to be too compatible with wrestling, so the retention isn't that concerning. The rating itself is OK enough for a cable drama in 2025, and is in-line with Resident Alien's demo ratings on USA, while improving drastically in total viewers. USA boasted about it drawing 2.2 million viewers in its three days, with Peacock viewing added in. It's not a huge debut, but it's the best premiere for a new show on one of the Versant cable networks (an umbrella which includes USA, Syfy, MSNBC and Oxygen) since 2021. There isn't a ton of competition there, as Syfy's premieres have mostly been total misfires and USA has been largely out of the programming game for a few years, but it's still a good sign for the show that USA is giving its debut such a positive spin. It LEANS RENEWAL out of the starting gate.
The Chicken Sisters: Last season, this show was a Hallmark+ series. It released its entire first season on Hallmark+ over the fall of 2024 before it began a linear run on Hallmark in spring 2025. For season two, things changed a bit, as it moved to airing first on Hallmark before episodes became available the next day on Hallmark+. It returned quickly for a cable show, with less than ten months turnaround from its Hallmark+ finale to its season two premiere. Ratings so far have been tepid, at best. It debuted to just a 0.04 in the demo and 560,000 viewers, and most recently drew a 0.02 in the key demo (with the same 560,000 viewers, so at least it's stable there). These are the same demo figures as it got for its spring repeats, though it's doing significantly better in total viewers. That's pretty low for a Hallmark series. When Calls the Heart averaged 1.5 million viewers (which was actually a 20% drop from the previous season). While that series sets a high viewership standard that's hard to match, a show on Hallmark should at least be expected to rate as well as The Way Home, which aired in a tough Friday night time slot and averaged 690,000 viewers. Both of those series also doubled The Chicken Sisters' 18-49 demo high, though 18-49 isn't the most important metric for Hallmark, and I take total viewership into consideration more heavily for this network. In just about every regard, The Chicken Sisters trails Hallmark's few other scripted dramas. It's also drawing viewership totals well behind most of their weekly Saturday night movies, so it truly sticks out for its low ratings. The only thing going for it is that it was originally a Hallmark+ series, and so you have to assume people are tuning in there, as well. For that reason, I can't entirely write the show off. Hallmark moved it to the linear network for a reason, and I have to assume it had a promising-enough streaming performance to warrant the support they've given it. However, all of the concrete data we've seen so far this season does not look promising to me. Its low ratings prompt it to begin with a LEANS CANCELLATION prediction.
Alien: Earth: FX debuted this series, the first TV series based on the popular Alien film franchise, less than a month ago, so we don't have a ton of data for it so far. However, what we do have is pretty encouraging. It's rating better than most recent FX projects, including their half-hour comedies and their recent Ryan Murphy dramas. Linear ratings for FX series are generally quite lot at this point, so we're talking about margins of only a few hundredths here, but being one of their highest-rated shows in the last year is an encouraging sign regardless. What's more encouraging is its streaming performance so far. It's been topping the Hulu TV chart at a fairly reliable frequency, and is doing well on Disney+, too. Placements on streaming charts is not precise data about exactly how many people are watching, so it is possible that it doesn't take all that many viewers to top the chart. Shows have topped streaming charts before and still been canceled. However, the limited data Disney has given us about the show suggests that it at least got off to a very strong start, drawing 9.2 million viewers worldwide on streaming (which does not include its viewership on linear TV). That's an impressive figure, and even if many who sampled it simply because of its ties to the Alien franchise don't continue it, it's still likely strong enough to get it renewed. The only real question mark here is its expense, as a sci-fi show is likely to run up the costs on special effects and elaborate sets. That's not enough for me to think it's in any real jeopardy, but it'll keep it from being marked as 100% safe, and it begins as a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Digman!: One of Comedy Central's animated series has been having an incredible season. That series is not Digman. The Andy Samberg cartoon has been completely overshadowed by the buzz worthy return of South Park, which has aired every other week. That airing schedule has completely exposed how weak Digman really is. It wasn't. a ratings hit to begin with, averaging 0.06 in its first season, when it aired behind South Park's 0.22 average. This year, South Park is up to a 0.28 average, and Digman! has only somewhat benefited. After South Park's 0.18 premiere, Digman drew a 0.07. It hit a series high of 0.11 two weeks later, as South Park soared to a 0.34. Two weeks after that, it drew a 0.08 behind South Park's 0.33. Those are the only three times they've aired together this year, and the retention has been terrible every time. Things, understandably, get worse in the weeks without South Park. Those weeks have seen Digman hit a series low 0.04 both times. This show really has no audience of its own, and lives off of South Park's audience (and barely does that). Comedy Central sure doesn't seem pleased: the show was originally planned to air over eight weeks, but they sped it up, doubling up new episodes on August 13th and 20th, shortening it to a six-week run. It seems like they couldn't get this show off the air fast enough. That's especially damning, given that its original premiere date was moved back so it could air alongside South Park, and they then rushed it off the air after just three episodes of South Park's current season aired. In its first season, Comedy Central announced a renewal on the day of its finale. It's only been a day since its second season's finale, but animated series take a while to produce, so it's not a terribly encouraging sign that there's no sign at all indicating Comedy Central is moving forward with a third season. With so much working against it, Digman! is going to need a miracle to survive. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll below!
