Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
Lopez vs Lopez (0.25, 0.19-0.33)
Leans Renewal:
Extended Family (0.28, 0.22-0.71)
Likely Renewal:
Night Court (0.33, 0.28-0.46)
Certain Renewal:
Saturday Night Live (0.72, 0.60-0.96)
Already Canceled/Final Season:
La Brea (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.36, 0.27-0.46)
Magnum PI (0.26, 0.21-0.32)
Quantum Leap (0.25, 0.18-0.32)
Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.51, 0.42-0.63)
Chicago Med (0.50, 0.44-0.62)
Chicago PD (0.48, 0.43-0.57)
Found (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
The Irrational (0.27, 0.19-0.34)
Law & Order (0.39, 0.28-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.49, 0.33-0.62)
Extended Family: This is my toughest call of the season. With ratings like this, cancellation would be far from undeserved, but recent history suggests that NBC will give it a second chance. Its retention of Night Court was better than American Auto's, so there is at least some semblance of an argument for renewal here. Still, its 0.28 average (which itself is inflated by the 0.71 post-NFL premiere) isn't markedly stronger than Lopez vs Lopez, which NBC fully owns and is said to have strong appeal to Latino viewers, which could work in its favor. With it looking likely that the Reba comedy pilot will be ordered to series, and with St. Denis Medical already picked up to series, I think NBC needs to keep one of their two weak, lower-priority sitcoms on the air for at least one more season, unless one of Night Court, St. Denis, and the Reba project airs doubled-up episodes. NBC is going to have to weigh the pros and cons of Extended Family and Lopez vs Lopez, and I do expect Extended Family to win out in the end. They treated it better than they treated Lopez, even giving it a post-NFL showing, indicating that they prefer it. It still LEANS RENEWAL, whether it deserves it or not. Chance of renewal: 55%
Law & Order: Organized Crime: Last week, it was announced that NBC was not moving forward with a fifth season of Organized Crime on their network, with a move to Peacock anticipated for the SVU spinoff. This came just a week after I downgraded the show to a cancellation prediction, following a period of declining ratings and non-ideal treatment from NBC. Though it seemingly will live on on streaming, it won't live on at NBC, and is a correct prediction.
Lopez vs Lopez: On Tuesday, Lopez vs Lopez returned to its former "glory" by matching its series high for the first of two episodes that aired as part of its second-season finale. It was a welcome increase for a show that has long seemed firmly planted on the wrong side of the bubble, even if it did only shed 8% of its ratings from season one. The previous week's episodes hit a season low 0.21/0.19, with the latter episode also constituting a series low. That's part of a pattern of ratings inconsistency for the show this season, seeing large drops at 8:30, which indicates that those higher-rated 8 PM airings were highly inflated by the local lead-init. I am upgrading its chances this week, mainly because I find it hard to believe that Extended Family would have been able to do as "well" this week as Lopez vs Lopez did. I expect only one of the two to survive, so if NBC would abandon their tradition of automatically handing second seasons to even the worst underperforming comedies, and cancel Extended Family, then Lopez vs Lopez would have a shot at survival. I don't find that to be the likely scenario, but it did make somewhat of a case for renewal this week, arguably more of a case than Extended Family ever made in a more favorable time of the year for ratings. It now LEANS CANCELLATION. Chance of renewal: 40%
Night Court: Of the three sitcoms on NBC's schedule, this is the safest. Its ratings are just so-so, but it is, nevertheless, still NBC's strongest sitcom. It was also given priority scheduling by NBC, keeping its 8 PM time slot and airing in the winter. NBC does not fully produce the series, which has held up its renewal, but I don't expect that to impact its ultimate fate. The only chance that this show has of being canceled is if NBC decides to clean house with its sitcom roster and start anew next season. That seems very unlikely, so it remains a LIKELY RENEWAL. Chance of renewal: 80%
Saturday Night Live: There's not much to say about this longtime NBC Saturday night staple. It's NBC's highest-rated show, and an iconic part of American pop culture. Next season will be its milestone 50th season, and there's no doubt it'll get there. Chance of renewal: 100%
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the final poll of the week!
