This week on the CBS Renew/Cancel, we take a closer look at a show that's struggling in linear ratings this season. Is this veteran CBS drama doomed, or do the live ratings only tell part of a larger picture about this show's true strength? Keep reading for the latest update on Elsbeth, as well as several other shows on the bubble.
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Elsbeth: This has not been a fantastic season for Elsbeth in the ratings. It has not even been a good season in the ratings. After two years of modest ratings, Elsbeth has become an outright ratings flop this season. It was often able to beat its direct competition on ABC and NBC last season, but has consistently been beaten by Grey's Anatomy this season, and it's barely rating any differently than NBC's repeats of the Peacock-original season of Organized Crime. Elsbeth averaged 0.26 last season and its low was a 0.20. It has yet to even reach as high as 0.20 this season, aside rom the NFL-inflated premiere. It's been a rough ride so far. So why does Elsbeth still look like a safe bet to return? Despite its weakness in same-day ratings (especially in the demo), Elsbeth is one o CBS's most-watched series in seven-day multiplatform viewing. That was the case last season, and it remains the case this season. It's the #10 show across all of TV in MP+7 viewing, and CBS's #6 show. It beats out CBS shows with higher linear ratings - such as Georgie & Mandy, FBI, and Fire Country. Skydance, the new owners of CBS, have made it clear that they see Paramount+ as a valuable venture, and Elsbeth is one of their top shows in Paramount+ streaming ratings (adding 1.7 million viewers on average, more than NCIS or Boston Blue). So that's the big argument for Elsbeth's renewal. It also doesn't hurt that CBS and Elsbeth's creators, Robert and Michelle King, have a strong working relationship. This is the third show in their Good Wife franchise, and they've also created Evil, Your Honor and Happy Face for CBS and other Paramount entities, plus a new show next year. That doesn't ensure renewal here, but it does make it a bit more unlikely that they'll cancel a third-season, fully-owned show that's doing well for them in delayed ratings when said show comes from one of Paramount's most valued creative teams. Elsbeth has value to CBS beyond its linear ratings, at a time when outside factors matter more than ever. It remains a likely renewal.
The Road: The end of The Road is nigh. This week, The Road sunk to a new low of 0.13, dropping 50% week-to-week. We didn't need that drop to happen in order to know that The Road was a flop, but it sure helped to highlight just how much of a misfire this show is for CBS. Its retention from Tracker has been downright pitiful, and it's a huge downgrade from the show that aired in this slow last year, The Equalizer. That show was canceled, though more due to cost and ownership issues than ratings, and it's highly unlikely that The Road is doing anything near enough to earn a renewal while causing the 9 PM time slot to be down 50% year-to-year. The one argument this show had was Paramount's strong relationship with the show's producer, Taylor Sheridan, who has created more hit for them in recent memory than anyone else. This was Sheridan's first series for CBS (he'll have another, hopefully more successful, attempt early next year with Yellowstone spinoff Y: Marshals), and it wasn't entirely impossible that the NFL could boost it enough to get it a pity renewal. However, with Sheridan now set to leave Paramount for NBCUniversal, they don't have much reason to hand this show a renewal to save face. It remains a likely cancellaiton, verging on certain at this point.
DMV: I've discussed DMV's underwhelming linear ratings in the past, but we did have some positive developments this week for DMV outside of the continued poor L+SD performance. While it dropped to a new series low this week on linear TV, it charted on Paramount+ for the first time in its run, suggesting that it may be showing some signs of life on there. Poppa's House never charted on Paramount+ throughout its run, and was CBS's second-least-watched show in mutliplatform+35 data. We don't have MP+35 data yet, but in MP+7 data, DMV is out-performing five CBS shows. That's still not a stellar performance, but it's doing a bit comparatively better than Poppa. In the MP+7 demo rating, DMV currently ranks eighteenth among all shows on TV, and #6 on CBS. Given how little emphasis CBS puts on the 18-49 demo in their press releases, it's hard to say just how much (if at all) they care about that metric, but it is still a generally positive development, especially given how poor its demo looks in L+SD ratings. It's all going to come down to scheduling space and CBS's own preference. With two dramas already ordered for next season and two midseason dramas set to debut this year, CBS can quickly run out of space, especially if they want to order another new drama pilot. This would likely necessitate a comedy cut, especially since CBS has no new comedies ordered and only one in development at this point (they still have plenty of time to change this, though). DMV isn't performing well enough to expect CBS to order a new comedy just to keep it around, especially I they find a new drama they'd rather order. While this has been a generally positive week of data for DMV (though not entirely positive), it remains very much on the bubble. It leans renewal.
NCIS: Origins: This is another show that's only an OK performer and is pretty firmly on the bubble. It had a strong showing this week for its 8 PM airing, but not every episode is going to be a crossover with its far more popular parent series. This show's true strength is closer to the 0.2s it's been getting than this week's one-off 0.4. It remains glaringly weaker than NCIS in multiplatorm data, align to make the top twenty in either the 18-49 demo or (more importantly) total viewership in the MP+7 averages, despite NCIS being a top five show in total viewers. Only two scripted shows (ending show The Neighborhood and the likely-canceled Watson) drew less viewers for their premieres this year in MP+7 (though NCIS: Sydney would likely be lower as well if they'd released those ratings), and a strong one-time boost isn't enough to change what is likely a solid underperformance in delayed ratings. Like DMV, whether Origins has a continued home on CBS next season will depend largely on scheduling space. They have several new dramas premiering in the next year, and Origins will be competing with them for space. If CBS concedes that their NCIS block isn't working, Origins can find itself in trouble. for now, it still leans renewal.
CIA: And finally, an update on the disaster that is CIA. CBS claims that this show is still set for a midseason debut, but in just the last month alone, it's lost a star, a producer, and its showrunner. That's the second time it's lost its showrunner, as it got a new showrunner after it was initially pushed from fall to midseason. This is a show that looks more and more likely to get stuck in development hell, a place that Dick Wolf's planned spinoffs often find themselves (Law & Order: For the Defense, anyone?). Why CBS gave a fall slot to a show that seemed to exist only in theory remains beyond me, but I'm still not convinced this show is airing this season - if at all. Einstein has had its own issues, but at least that show filmed a pilot. Now, CBS has a show set for next season that was delayed by behind-the-scenes issues, and a show set for this year that may find itself pushed to next season due to behind-the-scenes issues. What an absolute disaster.
| The TV Ratings Guide | 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | The Neighborhood | DMV | FBI | Watson | |
| Tues | NCIS | NCIS: Origins | NCIS: Sydney | ||
| Wed | Survivor | The Amazing Race | |||
| Thurs | Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage | Ghosts | Matlock | Elsbeth | |
| Fri | Sheriff Country | Fire Country | Boston Blue | ||
| Sun | Tracker | The Road | Encores | ||
