NBC Renew/Cancel Week 8: Stumble Gives NBC Little to Cheer About

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, I discuss NBC's final two debuts of the fall season: Friday night comedies Happy's Place and Stumble. Keep reading for my initial outlook on both of these comedies.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:

Brilliant Minds (0.15, 0.12-0.18)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.18)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.22, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
Happy's Place (0.25)
Law & Order: SVU (0.28, 0.21-0.33)
St. Denis Medical (0.32, 0.29-0.34)
The Voice (0.34, 0.28-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.35, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.30, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.17, 0.15-0.20)
Saturday Night Live (0.60, 0.58-0.70)

Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Surviving Earth
The Wall

Stumble: NBC has become famed for almost automatically handing renewals to freshman comedies in recent years. In the last five seasons, just two comedies on NBC have been one-and-done. One was COVID filler Connecting, which was never going to have a long life anyway. The other was Extended Family, which was the first show to really prompt NBC to break that habit of always renewing first-season comedies. Since Extended Family's cancelation, NBC has debuted and renewed two comedies - St. Denis Medical and Happy's Place. Both of those are shows that I'd categorize as being sincerely successful and earning their place on NBC's schedule. They certainly did better than any of the new dramas last season, and they continue to perform better than most shows currently on the network. NBC comedy is in a healthy enough place thanks to those shows that I don't think they need to continue the hare-brained strategy of giving every show two seasons, even if ratings truly don't warrant it. So I'm not going to automatically assume any freshman NBC comedy is getting renewed until they give me evidence to the contrary. Stumble got off to a very tepid start. With a 0.18 in the demo out of a 0.25 from Happy's Place, Stumble is one of the lowest-rated shows on NBC already. Only Brilliant Minds, Dateline and On Brand rate lower. Two of those are cheap reality shows (one of which seems unlikely to return) and the other is by-and-large the most obvious cancellation currently airing on the network. This is a hundredth below the premiere rating of The Paper, which had aired months earlier on Peacock. Happy's Place and Stumble were just about the most incompatible comedies NBC could've thrown together, so this is not a big shock, but 72% retention in the very first episode is a really poor start. Its Peacock performance was the weakest of the three NBC comedies in their debut weeks, though it did manage to rise as high as #8 on their daily chart, which isn't horrible (and is better than their canceled sitcoms from last season). I don't think this show is completely DOA, but I do think it's more likely to end up canceled than renewed. On top of the obvious ratings issues, it seems like the lowest priority of all of NBC's comedies. It was stuck behind an incompatible multi-cam sitcom on Friday nights at 8:30 when it was far more compatible with St. Denis Medical, seemingly because NBC wants that slot available for Reggie Dinkins, which isn't debuting until February. Both of NBC's sophomore comedies look like really strong bets to return, and Reggie Dinkins is getting priority treatment right out of the starting gate. NBC won't be expanding comedy, so if they have to cancel one of their sitcoms to make room for a new sitcom, it's going to be Stumble. If NBC really wants to keep it and order a new sitcom, they could opt not to air next season of The Paper and have Stumble and Reggie share a time slot. But so far, I'm not seeing any indication from NBC that they like it enough to do that. So it's starting in the red, an underdog for renewal but not entirely doomed yet. It has time to prove itself, and NBC has time to prove that they're committed to this show, but for now, there's just nothing really indicating that it's a favorite for renewal. NBC doesn't really need it. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Happy's Place: On its face, a 0.25 rating isn't all that impressive, particularly for a premiere. After all, Happy's Place debuted a full tenth higher just last season, and averaged 0.27 for its first season, so it's down in both regards. However, ratings have been on the downturn this year, and that 0.25 was enough to be the top entertainment program of the night. Only college football on Fox and sports on cable topped Happy's Place, as ABC and CBS's programming all rated lower, as did its fellow NBC series. 0.25 is also higher than Law & Order has averaged on an easier night, and not much lower than the longtime hit SVU. Happy's Place is not a major ratings hit, but it's been a solid performer for NBC throughout its run, and it does look like it's going to remain one this season. As a multi-cam, the show is probably the most cost-effective of NBC's sitcoms. NBC also valued the show enough to repeat it consistently over the summer, which they didn't do for the higher-rated St. Denis Medical. Its premiere rating isn't nearly as impressive as that 0.34 return for St. Denis last week, but I think both look likely to return for next season. We saw earlier this season that NBC could do far worse in this slot. On Brand with Jimmy Fallon performed about half as well as Happy's Place. Last year, Grosse Pointe Garden Society marked a similar underperformance from Happy's Place, though that was more a burnoff than an intentional scheduling choice. Happy's Place has been a solid attempt at breathing some new lie into Friday night for NBC, and it's helped keep them competitive on a night that they didn't really try to compete on in some recent years. Happy's Place has also performed fairly well on streaming so far this week, cracking Peacock's daily top ten four times in the last week, as good as any of its showings last season. I don't think it's as safe as St. Denis Medical, but it begins as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	The Paper	The Voice	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	Law & Order: Organized Crime
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	College Football on NBC
Sun	Sunday Night Football