Summer Renew/Cancel Week 9: Big Brother Is Still a Big Deal

This week on the Summer Renew/Cancel, two CBS veterans return, including one of the summer's strongest shows and one of its weakest. Keep reading for my initial predictions for Big Brother and Secret Celebrity Renovation!

Certain to be Canceled:
HouseBroken (0.12, 0.06-0.18)
The Wonder Years (0.21, 0.17-0.25)

Likely to be Canceled:
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge (0.26, 0.21-0.33)
The Prank Panel (0.30, 0.24-0.31)
Tough As Nails (0.19, 0.14-0.23)

Leans Cancellation:
Beat Shazam (0.21, 0.17-0.26)
Claim To Fame (0.32, 0.24-0.41)
Stars on Mars (0.19, 0.17-0.24)

Leans Renewal:
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.21, 0.18-0.24)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.23, 0.20-0.25)
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.26, 0.19-0.29)
LA Fire & Rescue (0.24, 0.21-0.29)
Secret Celebrity Renovation (0.17, 0.16-0.17)

Likely to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.28, 0.27-0.31)
The Chase (0.34, 0.30-0.37)
Weakest Link (0.26, 0.20-0.32)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (0.36, 0.29-0.43)
America's Got Talent (0.63, 0.55-0.68)
The Bachelorette (0.37, 0.27-0.46)
Big Brother (0.65, 0.58-0.72)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.35, 0.30-0.38)
Generation Gap (0.36, 0.32-0.44)

Yet to Premiere:
The Challenge: USA

Fate Determined:
Gotham Knights (Canceled)
MasterChef (Renewed)
Superman & Lois (Renewed)

Big Brother: Considering its performance in previous seasons, it shouldn't come as much surprise that Big Brother returned last week with the highest rating for a regularly-scheduled summer program, besting the previous 0.68 high held by America's Got Talent. While last year saw the show rate as the #2 summer show, narrowly trailing The Bachelorette, it has a clear path towards being the #1 summer show this season, even though only half of its current season will actually air in the summer. The show continues to rate among the upper echelons of broadcast TV in general, with only five in-season shows exceeding its current 0.65 average for the first two episodes (an average that is likely to increase when final numbers are reported for Sunday's show, which saw a decline to a still-strong 0.58). It is also in its own universe as far as CBS's summer fare is concerned, with their only two other shows to premiere thus far - Tough as Nails and Secret Celebrity Renovation - both trailing Big Brother by roughly four tenths. With another season of summer domination all-but-assured for the CBS social experiment, it unsurprisingly enters as a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars: I'm a bit surprised to be writing this, considering how reliable Gordon Ramsay tends to be for Fox, but this is one of the hardest calls of the season for me thus far. When it debuted, I noted its so-so start and stated I wanted to be cautious before declaring its renewal a guarantee simply because of Fox's love for Chef Ramsay. That caution is proving to have been justified, as it slipped to a new low of 0.19 last week, holding only 56% of its extremely-compatible MasterChef lead-in. While Fox has become accustomed to renewing shows with extremely poor ratings in recent seasons, it's still troubling to see a Ramsay show struggling this much, to the point that it's rating below fellow cooking-themed show Crime Scene Kitchen, which has a lead-in about half as strong as Food Stars'. I would still bet on a renewal for the show at this moment, considering that they have many shows performing similarly and have a great working relationship with Ramsay, but it would be far from a shock if they canceled it. It LEANS RENEWAL but could go either way. 

Secret Celebrity Renovation: Another show that could go either way is Secret Celebrity Renovation. While it is obviously dirt cheap to produce, considering its continued renewals for Fridays in the summer despite continued weak ratings, eventually, these shows have a way of simply disappearing without notice. With likely tiny profit margins even with its low production costs, these summer filler shows are often borderline renewals each year and even the slightest negative sign could prove to be fatal for them. This season, the show premiered basically steady with last year (up three hundredths from its season two finale but down three tenths from its season two average), when it was an extremely questionable renewal to begin with. When you consider the year-to-year ratings decline across broadcast, and the horrible state of CBS' summer schedule, it looks slightly better than it did last season. Keeping in mind what I said earlier about these low-budget, low-rated shows only being able to go one for so long before networks dispense of them, I would judge this show to be a mild favorite for renewal, simply because its performance is on par with last year's. It LEANS RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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