Certain to be Canceled:
HouseBroken (0.12, 0.06-0.18)
Superfan (0.19, 0.16-0.22)
The Wonder Years (0.21, 0.17-0.25)
Likely to be Canceled:
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge (0.26, 0.21-0.33)
The Prank Panel (0.30, 0.24-0.31)
Stars on Mars (0.18, 0.14-0.24)
Tough As Nails (0.19, 0.14-0.23)
Leans Cancellation:
Beat Shazam (0.21, 0.17-0.26)
Claim To Fame (0.30, 0.23-0.41)
Leans Renewal:
The Challenge: USA (0.29, 0.28-0.31)
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.20, 0.18-0.24)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.23, 0.15-0.25)
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.26, 0.19-0.29)
LA Fire & Rescue (0.25, 0.21-0.29)
Secret Celebrity Renovation (0.18, 0.16-0.22)
Likely to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.30, 0.27-0.31)
The Chase (0.34, 0.30-0.37)
Weakest Link (0.26, 0.20-0.32)
Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (0.36, 0.29-0.43)
America's Got Talent (0.62, 0.55-0.68)
The Bachelorette (0.40, 0.27-0.56)
Big Brother (0.62, 0.56-0.72)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.38, 0.30-0.43)
Generation Gap (0.37, 0.28-0.44)
Gotham Knights (Canceled)
MasterChef (Renewed)
Superman & Lois (Renewed)
Stars on Mars: It's been a while since I've discussed this show, but with it on a clear downward slope recently, this feels like a good time. Two weeks ago, it hit a new low of 0.14, and it followed that up with a small rise to 0.16 - its previous low. As I said when discussing this show the last time, Fox's standards are low - they've renewed shows with very poor ratings in the past, including Welcome to Flatch in 2022, which had even worse ratings than this show. However, it's still difficult to imagine Fox being okay with starting off their night with a 0.1, even in the summer. Stars on Mars was Fox's third-lowest-rated show last week, coming in above only repeats of Food Stars and The Simpsons on Sunday (and below three other cartoon repeats). On a network like Fox, where they seem to release with new reality shows non-stop, it will be very easy to replace this show with something better, something that can achieve higher than a 0.14. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION, though it deserves an even harsher prediction with those ratings.
Superfan: After an already-horrific 0.22 debut, Superfan followed that up with an even more horrific week two, dropping nearly a third of its paltry debut audience to just a 0.16 in the all-important 18-49 demo, even as lead-in Big Brother shed just a hundredth. Total viewer figures aren't seen as terribly important in general, but CBS is one network that does see value in them, and Superfan is a bomb there, too, with an average of just about 1.35 million, a pitiful total for a show on the older-skewing CBS (repeats of So Help Me Todd, airing behind Superfan at 10 PM, have averaged just about 40,000 viewers less than Superfan in the two weeks they've aired together). To put all of this in a more simple way: this show is a bomb, one of the biggest bombs we've seen in a long while. While its premiere rating left open the slightest of possibilities that CBS could order more to cover time slots during the ongoing strikes, week two demolished any of those chances. It's not a question about whether it gets canceled at this point, it's a matter of whether they let this air out its full season. It's a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars: Wrapping up its season this week, Food Stars managed to notch what may have been its most "impressive" rating thus far, rising three hundredths to a 0.25 (its highest rating in a month) as its MasterChef lead-in declined to a series low. It's still, by no means, lighting up the ratings charts for Fox, but it is probably enough to justify another go-round. Its retention of MasterChef is still just OK, but it can at least lay claim to the fact that it is Fox's #2 summer show this season. Everything besides MasterChef is basically in the same range, so Food Stars isn't a lock, but Fox seems to have bigger fish to fry. It remains in the LEANS RENEWAL category.
The Wonder Years: Also wrapping its season this week is The Wonder Years, the only scripted entry on the Big Four this summer. While it was a poor performer in its first season, which never bodes well for a show shunted to summer, it managed to avoid completely embarrassing itself in season two, holding onto a decent amount of Judge Steve Harvey. It ended up averaging 0.21, which is higher than I expected it to average after its poor premiere. Nevertheless, its finale saw the show nearly tying its low with only a 0.18. ABC did renew in-season flop Not Dead Yet after going that low for its own finale back in May, but they seem to have fallen completely out of love with The Wonder Years, and its stability for much of season two wasn't enough for me to believe it has any chance of returning. It wraps its second season as a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
