Summer Renew/Cancel Week 10: Superfan Has No Fans

It's an unusually busy late week in the Summer Renew/Cancel, as CBS debuts two reality shows, including freshman Superfan, and other new shows wraps their first season this week. Keep reading to see my initial predictions for Superfan and The Challenge: USA and an update on Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge as it exits the airwaves.

Certain to be Canceled:
HouseBroken (0.12, 0.06-0.18)
The Wonder Years (0.21, 0.17-0.25)

Likely to be Canceled:
Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge (0.26, 0.21-0.33)
The Prank Panel (0.30, 0.24-0.31)
Superfan (0.22)
Tough As Nails (0.19, 0.14-0.23)

Leans Cancellation:
Beat Shazam (0.21, 0.17-0.26)
Claim To Fame (0.31, 0.24-0.41)
Stars on Mars (0.19, 0.14-0.24)

Leans Renewal:
The Challenge: USA (0.30, 0.28-0.31)
Crime Scene Kitchen (0.20, 0.18-0.24)
Don't Forget The Lyrics! (0.22, 0.15-0.25)
Gordon Ramsay's Food Stars (0.26, 0.19-0.29)
LA Fire & Rescue (0.25, 0.21-0.29)
Secret Celebrity Renovation (0.18, 0.16-0.22)

Likely to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.28, 0.27-0.31)
The Chase (0.34, 0.30-0.37)
Weakest Link (0.26, 0.20-0.32)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (0.36, 0.29-0.43)
America's Got Talent (0.62, 0.55-0.68)
The Bachelorette (0.40, 0.27-0.56)
Big Brother (0.64, 0.56-0.72)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.35, 0.30-0.38)
Generation Gap (0.36, 0.28-0.44)

Fate Determined:
Gotham Knights (Canceled)
MasterChef (Renewed)
Superman & Lois (Renewed)

Superfan: The newest reality entry for the Tiffany Network debuted with an absolute thud, drawing just a 0.22 in the key 18-49 demo despite a strong 0.63 lead-in from Big Brother - just 35% retention. That's pitiful for any show, in any slot, but it's unacceptable for a premiere, even with Big Brother being acknowledged as a poor lead-in due to its unique audience that tunes in for it and it alone. Though it did adjust up slightly in the finals, its 0.23/0.17 half-hours suggested rejection among the few that bothered to tune in to start with. To put the show's poor performance into context, every FBI franchise repeat last Tuesday matched or exceeded Superfan's rating, as did all four comedy repeats that CBS aired last week. A repeat of Young Sheldon that aired behind the Big Brother premiere the week before Superfan's debut also outperformed it. If even repeats could do just as well for a network as the premiere of a new series, then that series doesn't seem destined for a very long run. It's hard to ever be too certain about even low-rated summer shows getting the axe, as they're often very cheap to produce and could work as schedule filler (especially amid the ongoing strike struggles hitting Hollywood), but it's a massive long shot that we'll ever see this show again after the end of its first season. It's a (very) LIKELY CANCELLATION.

The Challenge: USA: One of the few CBS summer freshman shows to actually survive past its first season in recent years, The Challenge: USA returned last week in a new time slot with a decent 0.31, and then dropped a bit in its Sunday debut, which had the misfortune of airing over an hour after it was scheduled to air due to a PGA overrun. It got a 0.28 in the prelims for that episode and may be subject to downward adjustments due to starting at roughly quarter past the hour. Nevertheless, it's looking like the show will be in the 0.3 range this season, which isn't down all that much from last season. The show is clearly not a priority for CBS, based on its scheduling this season. Not only did they move it to 10 PM on Thursdays so they could air Superfan in its original time slot, but they are also airing some episodes on Sundays in an attempt to wrap up the season faster. That treatment is not an indication that CBS cares much about what happens to it, despite being an OK performer that probably doesn't cost them all that much to produce. That's why I'm going to be a bit cautious in my prediction, and start it as only LEANS RENEWAL. Its ratings are enough to expect renewal at this point, but outside circumstances may work against it, especially seeing that CBS has a new president since the last time they aired this show, a president who has already made moves indicating that they may be moving on from fellow returning reality series, Tough as Nails.

Hot Wheels: Ultimate Challenge: NBC's new Tuesday night reality series wrapped its first season last week and remained a thoroughly underwhelming performer, even as it rose to its highest rating since the middle of June (a whopping 0.27). As I said when I downgraded it a few weeks ago, the show's retention is terrible (even as AGT dropped and it rose, its finale held just 47% of AGT) and NBC can certainly do better in this slot. Next week will see repeats of That's My Jam, a solid in-season performer, assuming the slot. It would be a shock if those repeats don't match or even exceed what Hot Wheels averaged here. A small finale rebound is not going to be enough to stop NBC from taking these Hot Wheels off the track. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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