With ABC preparing to bring back the first of their scripted shows later this week, it's a good time for a pre-season ABC Renew/Cancel to get a look at what shape their returning shows are in going into the season, and see my pre-season expectations for them.
Certain Cancellation:N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
For Life
Leans Renewal:
American Housewife
Likely Renewal:
A Million Little Things
Certain Renewal:
Blackish
New Shows:
Big Sky
Call Your Mother
Rebel
Women of the Movement
American Housewife: ABC doesn't seem to like this show very much, do they? It's thrown across the schedule more than any other and seems to be plugged into whatever slot they desire. It doesn't really have a set home. That's why I think it's in the worst shape of any fall ABC comedy. It's never been treated as an asset to the network, even four (now five) seasons in. It was reportedly on the bubble last season, so I don't know if it'll be back. It got a syndication deal over the summer, which is good, but I don't know if that's really enough to say it's safe. It still has one more season until I think it's really in trouble, so it'll start out as LEANS RENEWAL, until we see its performance in its new/old slot beginning next week.
Blackish: It's been a pretty weak performer in the past few seasons, but ABC adores this show, even moving it from a planned midseason launch to a fall slot. It makes sense that they treat it well, given that it seems to be a huge money-earner for ABC and Disney, given its profitable syndication deal. They wouldn't be giving it so many spinoffs if they weren't making a money. Ratings don't seem like a big issue for this show, so it starts as a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
The Conners: I'm expecting a heavy decline for TV's #1 comedy from last season, as it loses the local lead-in and moves to 9 PM on a new night. However, with the state of ABC comedy not looking particularly bright, I see no way that this show will drop so much that ABC will cancel it. It will almost certainly be one of their highest-rated comedies this season, and it'll get at least one more season. It starts as a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
For Life: This sophomore drama was an OK, but not great, performer for ABC in season one, and was renewed for a second season. Initially set to return in midseason, it was pushed to fall after COVID-related expenses caused Stumptown's demise. Its old slot was pretty terrible. Its new slot is arguable just as bad. Wednesdays at 10 has evolved into just as black a hole as Tuesdays at 10, and its lead-in will again be Blackish, so it won't get that much support there. It's not even fully produced by ABC, so it probably needs to perform pretty well to get renewed. I have a hard time seeing it do all that well, and I think it's an underdog for renewal. It starts as LEANS CANCELLATION.
The Goldbergs: The longest-running comedy on ABC now that Modern Family has gone kaput, The Goldbergs remains a reliable player, even with its spinoff being axed and its own ratings dropping notably in the past season or so. I can't see ABC unceremoniously canceling it after so many years of strong ratings, barring some massive collapse this year. I have a heard time imagining that happening, so it's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
The Good Doctor: Once again, we have a show that's seen drops lately but remains a reliable player. There's no better 10 PM player on ABC, and with a stronger Dancing With the Stars lead-in this time around, Good Doctor has a real shot to return relatively steady. It's going to coast to a renewal once again, and is a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Grey's Anatomy: This show ends when it wants to end. ABC will never cancel it. CERTAIN RENEWAL.
A Million Little Things: It's not the strongest show, but it's done decently for ABC, holding up well enough as it moved to 10 PM. ABC seems to like it enough, seeing as they've kept it behind Grey's Anatomy for multiple seasons now. It'll probably return down, but not low enough to be in much danger. I'll be safe though and start it only as a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Mixed-ish: This show arguably deserved cancellation last season, given that it went as low as a 0.46 in the winter. Unlike every other show on this list, it's certainly not coming back until midseason, so who knows where it'll end up. What I do know is that it probably won't do too well when it comes back. ABC seems to like it, though, so I think they'll try to find a way to renew it as long as it remains profitable. It starts as LEANS RENEWAL.
The Rookie: We don't know much about when this show is returning, but I don't think it'll be anytime soon. Its slot has been filled by Card Sharks, and there hasn't been much news about it returning to production or any premiere date announcement. At this point, it seems destined for midseason, which is probably good for it. Its ratings really improved when paired with American Idol, and I assume it'll remain a solid player in that slot again. Therefore, it's a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Station 19: After two unencouraging seasons, this Grey's Anatomy spinoff was moved to 8 PM by ABC last year. It was a risky move, but it's a move that led to a 9% gain in raw ratings. It became ABC's #2 drama for the season and transformed itself into a very strong player. With it returning to that slot this year, it's hard to imagine it falling apart this season. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Big Sky, Call Your Mother, Rebel and Women of the Movement: These are all new ABC shows, all of which will premiere later this season. Since I have no ratings data to base a prediction for them on, I won't rank any of them. However, I would have to say that Big Sky is the most likely renewal of this bunch.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your pre-season predictions for ABC? Let me know in the comments!
