NBC Renew/Cancel Week 15: Another Stumble for Stumble

It's our final NBC Renew/Cancel before a Winter Olympics hiatus. Keep reading for the big updates of the week, including news from NBC that spurs a prediction change.

Certain Cancellation:
Brilliant Minds (0.13, 0.11-0.18)

Likely Cancellation:

The Hunting Party (0.14, 0.10-0.17)

Leans Cancellation:
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon (0.17, 0.14-0.22)
Stumble (0.17, 0.11-0.22)
The Wall (0.14, 0.12-0.19)

Leans Renewal:
Law & Order (0.22, 0.20-0.27)

Likely Renewal:
The Voice (0.24, 0.24-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.33, 0.29-0.39)
Chicago Med (0.34, 0.28-0.39)
Chicago PD (0.29, 0.25-0.34)
Dateline NBC (0.18, 0.15-0.20)
Law & Order: SVU (0.29, 0.21-0.33)
Saturday Night Live (0.60, 0.43-0.70)

Coming Soon:
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Surviving Earth

Already Renewed:
Happy's Place (0.24, 0.18-0.26)
St. Denis Medical (0.31, 0.24-0.34)

Stumble: Just last week, I explained why I felt Stumble was more likely to come back than not, despite being the most difficult bubble show to predict this season on NBC. Since then, a series of developments have led me to believe Stumble's renewal odds are fading. As of the time of writing last week's Renew/Cancel, NBC had just one sitcom pilot in development - and it felt more compatible with St. Denis Medical than Happy's Place, so it didn't feel like much of a threat to Stumble - though the freshman sitcom was still on far from solid footing. Just hours after that update was posted, NBC ordered two new multicamera sitcoms - including one with big-name stars in Katey Sagal and Jane Lynch. Both of those seem like obvious companions for Happy's Place, their most successful multicam since the first year of the Will & Grace revival. Stumble is far from compatible with Happy's Place, and is really far better suited as a St. Denis companion, so this doesn't mean it's completely doomed. I did mention it and Reggie Dinkins (or the single-cam pilot) could share a time slot and air behind St. Denis on Mondays. That's still possible. But NBC seems intent on finding a new show to air with Happy's Place, an it does make sense. Stumble's retention from Happy's Place is poor and suggests that the two don't share much of an audience. Stumble is also among their lowest-rated series, and despite some reasonably decent performances as of late, it's not a show NBC should be building around. If it does come back, it seems more likely to be midseason filler than a fall series with a heavy promo push. Another bad sing for Stumble was Happy's Place and St. Denis Medical both being renewed this week. NBC has a lot more data for those shows, as they're both in their second seasons, and they're also higher-rated, so it's not a shock that they're renewed before Stumble. However, it's rarely a positive indicator of a show's long-term future when it's the only comedy on the lineup not to be picked up for another season. NBC has weeks worth of data for Stumble, enough to make a decision on it if they were truly set on giving this show a second chance. A renewal not coming along with the other comedies suggests that said renewal may never come. Not all the signs are bad for Stumble - it is being repeated on Mondays, and it is getting a post-Olympics airing. So they don't seem to be set on canceling it, either. It does seem to have a chance, but it's probably on wrong side of the bubble. I just don't know if NBC has room for it. They definitely had room for more episodes, and while its premise does lend itself to a more limited episode order, the lack of a backorder is another possible sign pointing towards cancellation. I try not to bet against second seasons for NBC sitcoms - they rarely cancel new comedies. But NBC comedy is in a healthy enough place that pity renewals really aren't necessary. I can't say I'm entirely sold on its cancellation, but I think there are too many negatives here for me to ignore. It leans cancellation.

Brilliant Minds: Last week, I downgraded Brilliant Minds after The Futon Critic noted that upcoming airings of the show were scrapped, with The Voice now set to run two hours. This week, NBC officially confirmed that news, and also announced that just six episodes remain, despite Brilliant Minds airing only fourteen episodes so far. That means its initial twenty-two episode order has been cut to twenty. The news that it was being pulled from its Monday night slot to be burned off in either late spring or summer was bad enough, but knowing NBC has chopped its order may just be the final nail in the coffin. It was already dead before this confirmation, but now NBC has all but announced that it's canceled. It remains a certain cancellation.

Happy's Place and St. Denis Medical: Brilliant Minds being yanked from the schedule wasn't the only big news on NBC this week. The network also confirmed renewals for both of their sophomore comedies. Both were listed as likely renewals, but St. Denis Medical was set to be upgraded in this week's Renew/Cancel - an update I will admit was overdue. Happy's Place, while a very solid Friday night sitcom offering for NBC, was probably going to remain a "likely renewal" for the remainder of the season, as we seem to be headed for a somewhat unpredictable year on NBC. Regardless, both renewals were clearly earned, and easy to see coming, and were correct predictions.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	St. Denis Medical	Stumble (R)	The Wall	Brilliant Minds
Tues	NBA on NBC
Wed	Chicago Med		Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order		Law & Order: SVU	The Hunting Party
Fri	Happy's Place	Stumble	Dateline NBC
Sat	Encores
Sun	Sunday Night Football