ABC Renew/Cancel Week 15: American Idol Is No False Idol

Since the end of Dancing with the Stars in November, ABC has been without a major reality hit. That all changed last week, and it's time to assess the current standing of the crown jewel of ABC's midseason schedule, American Idol. Plus, we take a look at how The Rookie handled its move to Mondays.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
The Rookie (0.28, 0.26-0.29)

Likely Renewal:

9-1-1 (0.33, 0.30-0.35)

9-1-1: Nashville (0.24, 0.18-0.29)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Grey's Anatomy (0.19, 0.13-0.27)

Shark Tank (0.15, 0.11-0.20)

Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)

Will Trent (0.37, 0.34-0.40)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.17, 0.12-0.23)

Abbott Elementary (0.33, 0.26-0.43)

American Idol (0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.30, 0.24-0.39)

Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)

High Potential (0.35, 0.28-0.42)

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

Coming Soon:

The Bachelorette

Celebrity Jeopardy!

The Greatest Average American

RJ Decker

Scrubs

American Idol: Last week, American Idol solidified its position as ABC's second-strongest series. It might not be a DWTS-level hit, but absolutely nothing else on TV is. It currently looks even better than last season, up nearly a tenth from its season 23 average and up nearly two tenths from its season 23 premiere. That showing was enough to be the #3 show on all of TV last year, and that's exactly where it premiered this year, with it being very competitive with Survivor (just a single hundredth behind it) to be the second-highest-rated non-sports program on all of broadcast TV. It's yet another impressive performance for a series already coming off a season of raw year-to-year growth, and a great sign of ABC's continued strength. They have hit reality shows in both the fall and the winter/spring, with strong dramas on Tuesday, successful sitcoms on Wednesday, a respectable Thursday night anchor, and a competitive Friday reality lineup. ABC isn't back to its heyday, but they are rebuilding well, and Idol is a key component in that. This is very expensive - and unowned - reality show to produce compare to other unscripted offerings like their celebrity game shows or Shark Tank, like like the similarly-costly DWTS, it gets results that make the cost worth it for them. It's also likely a bit cheaper in a post-Katy Perry world, as the pop star commanded an eye-catching salary higher than that of her replacement. We don't know for sure if ABC's planning to make American Idol a permanent Monday night staple, which would dislodge the Bachelor franchise from its longtime home, but we do know that Idol will be airing somewhere on ABC next year. It's just too strong and valuable not to. It's a certain renewal, and there's no need to pretend it's anything but.

The Rookie: It was a mixed showing for The Rookie on its first post-Idol airing in four seasons. While it did lose some steam, dropping three hundredths from its last Tuesday airing despite a far stronger lead-in, it was still slightly above its premiere, with a lead-in much less compatible than fellow crime procedurals. It was still a decent-enough showing for 10 PM, even if its retention left something to be desired. ABC wasn't likely expecting it to continue posting 70+% retention in the post-Idol slot, as they know this new Monday lineup is significantly less compatible than their Tuesday lineup was. It's something they were clearly okay with, in service of giving RJ Decker a strong time slot. It's also only about a tenth below where it was when it last aired behind Idol in 2022, with only slightly worse retention. Most critical, though, is that there aren't any signs that the move has hurt its standing on streaming. It was a bit lower than average last week, but not to a concerning degree. Since its streaming and delayed viewing is the main argument for its renewal, I expect it will remain on solid footing as long as it remains strong there. That its linear ratings are still fairly respectable for 10 PM is just icing on the cake. It continues to lean renewal, with its time slot shift not changing much regarding its immediate future.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		High Potential	Encores
Wed	Shifting Gears	Abbott Elementary	Dirty Talk	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Wheel of Fortune		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	The Wonderful World of Disney