NBC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Renewing Brilliant Minds Was Not a Brilliant Move

A new season has arrived at NBC, with the network beginning the rollout of their fall schedule this week. That means it's time for the NBC Renew/Cancel to return, and with some new changes, as reality shows will now be included in the Renew/Cancel. It's a change I've been weighing for the last season or so, and a season in which the number of new reality shows matches the number of new scripted series felt like a g good time to implement this change. So keep on reading for my initial thoughts on Brilliant Minds and The Voice after their returns this week.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:

Brilliant Minds (0.16)

Leans Cancellation:
N/A

Leans Renewal:
N/A

Likely Renewal:
The Voice (0.39, 0.36-0.42)

Certain Renewal:
N/A

Coming Soon:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Dateline NBC
The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins
Happy's Place
The Hunting Party
Law & Order
Law & Order: SVU
On Brand with Jimmy Fallon
Saturday Night Live
St. Denis Medical
Stumble
Surviving Earth

Brilliant Minds: Its renewal was always questionable, but NBC backed themselves into a corner here, having ordered zero new dramas to fill their schedule despite having six dramas last season that didn't warrant renewal. The addition of the NBA to their lineup was a big help, as the network no longer needs to program Tuesdays from October onward or Sundays in the spring. Still, though, there were clear vacancies on Mondays and Thursdays at 10, and NBC opted to fill those slots with what they estimated were the best options of a very bad bunch. Brilliant Minds looked DOA last year, but as the season went on, it somehow managed to be the network's highest-rated non-Dick Wolf series in the L+SD 18-49 demo, and it was granted a renewal alongside The Hunting Party. Despite its weak linear ratings, it wasn't a total bust in multiplatform viewing, commanding 7.5 million viewers in that metric. That was enough to be 64th for the season (tying Tuesday airings of The Voice), even beating out Law & Order. In other words, it looked like a questionable decision, but with some context, NBC didn't look completely out of their minds to pick up another season. However, a third season is already looking unlikely. Out of the starting gate, the medical procedural mustered just a 0.16 in the demo, lower than any rating in season one, and a 45% drop from its season one premiere rating. Its retention from The Voice, which itself is down pretty heavily, was also pitiful, holding on to just 44% of its lead-in. The only positive way to spin that performance is that it did roughly the same last year. However, this is a show that NBC didn't seem to renew with much enthusiasm to begin with (waiting four months after its finale is an unusual tactic for NBC, who renewed most of their fall freshman with shorter seasons well before May in recent years), and its ratings were bad to begin with. It needed to actually impress this season in order to look like it had a shot at a renewal, and it instead returned with a new low, a poor half-hour breakdown (0.18/0.14 halves), and no compelling case for renewal. Also important to remember is that this is only its premiere, and with twenty-one more left this season, it's likely going to get even lower than this - probably significantly so, if it has a similar trajectory to its first season or the second seasons of other NBC shows like Quantum Leap or The Irrational. Looking this bad this early is an awful sign for its future, and it starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

The Voice: It's already renewed for a spring edition, so this prediction is less about whether it'll be back for another season (we know that as fact, and it's in production now) and more whether it will be back for the 2026-27 season. It was an underwhelming debut for The Voice this time around, coming in about 25% below its last fall premiere, and down even more from this spring's premiere. Of course, the last spring season ended up being an utter ratings catastrophe, so it's actually currently up a notch from its previous season average. However, this is still an expensive show that has been in a state of clear decline for the past several years, and at some point, NBC will likely have to make a tough decision about it. They're already heavily scaling back on it. They aired three hours of The Voice a week last year, and will cut the show down to just one hour a week by November. Next season will see the coaching panel cut to three coaches, for a special "Battle of Champions" season that'll be entirely pre-filmed, which will cut down the cost of producing live shows (which had previously been cut down in recent years). NBC is trying their best to experiment with ways to refresh the show, which does suggest that they know it has a ratings problem, while also seemingly trying to make it more cost-effective. My view on the show is that it's very likely coming back next season in some form, because it still does better for NBC than practically anything else that they could air, but there are still two full seasons ahead before they need to make a decision, and the last spring season collapsed in a stunning way. If it crumbles similarly this season and then struggles next season after the format change, then they may have to reconsider things. But it starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	9:00	10:00
Mon	The Voice		Brilliant Minds
Tues	The Voice		On Brand with Jimmy Fallon
Wed	Chicago Med	Chicago Fire	Chicago PD
Thurs	Law & Order	Law & Order: SVU	Law & Order: Organized Crime
Fri	On Brand with Jimmy Fallon	Dateline NBC
Sat	College Football on NBC
Sun	Sunday Night Football