This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, three new shows join the table after the launch of the Thursday lineup, somehow leaving just one show yet to premiere on ABC this fall. Keep reading for the initial predictions for new show Doctor Odyssey and returning champions 9-1-1 and Grey's Anatomy.
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
N/A
Already Ending:
The Conners
Yet to Premiere:
Abbott Elementary
The Rookie
Shifting Gears
Will Trent
Doctor Odyssey: Last week, ABC launched their second of two new dramas this season, Doctor Odyssey. Airing behind ABC's #1 scripted show, fellow Ryan Murphy creation 9-1-1, the show was given a great platform for success. For the most part, it took advantage of that optimal situation, with a solid 0.40 premiere after 9-1-1's own 0.47 launch. That's enough to make it the #3 scripted premiere of the season thus far, outpacing fellow ABC freshman drama High Potential. This is a far cry from Grey's Anatomy's 0.56 premiere in this slot earlier this year, but 9-1-1 itself is also much lower, so it's fair for Doctor Odyssey to fall short of that mark. Of course, the premiere rating is just one small datapoint in a show's run, and we won't get a true feel of the show's strength for a while yet. With mixed reception to the pilot so far, it's quite possible the show could drop off significantly in the weeks to come. However, as of right now, the show is a good deal ahead of High Potential (0.33) and Grey's Anatomy (0.30), and also ahead of the previous season averages of the two benched dramas, The Rookie (0.31) and Will Trent (0.34). It's also been #1 on Hulu for the past several days, even ahead of typical Hulu powerhouse 9-1-1. Again, it's very possible that the show could see big declines in both linear and streaming performance once time goes on, especially with a big name like Murphy's likely helping to draw in curious viewers, but this is a healthy start, and ABC has to be happy it began on solid footing like this. They gave it a big show of confidence by already ordering 18 episodes of it before it even premiered. Obviously, part of that decision is that they simply have nothing waiting on the bench to replace it (Will Trent and The Rookie, both of which seem likely to air on other nights in the week in order to spread out scripted a bit, notwithstanding), but being given what is essentially a full-season order before even premiering is a good sign nonetheless. A second season isn't a lock by any means, but it's doing what it needs so far to be in a very solid position. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.
9-1-1: ABC's #1 scripted show returned last week with a strong 0.47 in the demo. That's down over a tenth from its finale in May, but still enough to be the highest-rated scripted premiere so far, three hundredths above the launch of Matlock. With all returning scripted shows returning down from last spring so far, a rounded 0.5 for 9-1-1 is still a success, even if it is lower than we're used to seeing from it. It's also still doing well on Hulu, ranking #2 on the platform since the premiere, as well as Disney+. Of course, this show is notoriously expensive, which is how it ended up canceled by Fox in the first place, but ABC knows its value. Their parent company, Disney, owns the show, unlike Fox, and is able to profit from it syndication, streaming and international deals, in addition to its strong linear performance. While 9-1-1 is unlikely to last as long as fellow ABC veteran Grey's Anatomy, I do expect it to remain a fixture on ABC for a few years yet. There's nothing to worry about with this show right now, and it's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
