Welcome to the inaugural edition of New Show Power Rankings. This column aims not to predict whether a series will be renewed or canceled like our Renew/Cancel columns. Rather, it ranks the new broadcast scripted series from the 2024-25 TV season by perceived strength and linear ratings. These preseason predictions include co-productions, but not fully imported series. Let me know what you think in the comments!
1. NCIS: Origins (CBS)
CBS will replace NCIS: Hawai’i on the schedule with a new NCIS spinoff: a Young Gibbs prequel NCIS: Origins. The latest NCIS spinoff is set up for success; it will air directly after NCIS, and any NCIS series that made it to air has never outright flopped. NCIS: Hawai’i did serviceable in the time slot right up until its rather sudden cancelation, and Origins should be able to do the same.
2. Doctor Odyssey (ABC)
Of all the new broadcast scripted series, Doctor Odyssey arguably has the most ratings potential. That goes for both linear and streaming. It’ll air in between fellow Ryan Murphy drama 9-1-1, and fellow medical drama Grey’s Anatomy, both well-rated and established series. It loses out on the #1 spot simply because of how likely it is for a new NCIS series to succeed, compared to the chance this brand new, untested series underperforms. There’s always the chance this is another Scream Queens situation, where a Ryan Murphy series is expected to do very well and ultimately…does not.
3. Brilliant Minds (NBC)
If all goes according to plan for their respective networks, we could be in for an interesting battle between NCIS: Origins and Brilliant Minds in the Mondays at 10 pm time slot. The new Greg Berlanti-produced medical drama will air behind The Voice, and was pushed back from the 2023-24 season due to the strikes. NBC has a mixed track record launching new series in this time slot, but if they get a new breakout drama this season, Brilliant Minds will probably be it.
4. Shifting Gears (ABC)
Arguably one of the highest-profile new series of the season, Shifting Gears sees Tim Allen return to ABC in a new multi-cam sitcom, this time alongside co-star Kat Demings. With sole remaining multi-cam The Conners’ final season being just six episodes, ABC won’t be able to nurture Shifting Gears the way they will Doctor Odyssey. Still, this show has the star power and likely the curiosity factor to at least premiere well, wherever and whenever that may be.
5. Matlock (CBS)
Originally scheduled to launch Sundays at 8 pm in fall 2023, Matlock will air Thursdays at 9 pm starting this fall. While unexpected, Tracker’s success and So Help Me Todd’s cancelation paved the way to this happening. It will skew heavily outside of the key Adults 18-49 demo, possibly even more so than the typical CBS series. This may lead to a show with high viewership yet mediocre demo ratings. Matlock still has greater potential than most other new scripted series, but could plummet if it underperforms a la the Murphy Brown reboot.
6. Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage (CBS)
A spinoff of a spinoff, Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage will be leading off Thursday nights in the same time slot Young Sheldon and The Big Bang Theory used to occupy. Personally, I’m not convinced this was the best idea or title for a Young Sheldon spin-off, but like Matlock this show probably has a higher ratings ceiling than a lot of other shows on this list.
7. Happy’s Place (NBC)
Happy’s Place could very easily do well, at least for the standards of an NBC sitcom airing on Fridays. The Reba McEntire vehicle is being heavily promoted, and seemingly was liked by the network so much that they renewed Lopez vs. Lopez just to have something to pair it with. McEntire’s previous sitcom, ABC’s Malibu Country, also aired on Fridays and did decently, only getting canceled due to expenses and behind-the-scenes issues. This one should work out a bit better if NBC gets their wish.
8. Poppa’s House (CBS)
Poppa’s House’s job, like Bob Hearts Abishola’s before it, is to retain a solid portion of The Neighborhood’s audience and try not to tank the pair of dramas that follows. Led by Damon Wayans and Damon Wayans Jr., it was first ordered for midseason in the 2023-24 TV season before being pushed back due to the strikes. The linear ratings by themselves should be passable, just like Bob Hearts Abishola’s were for the entirety of its run. I wouldn’t expect CBS to find their next big comedy hit in it, though.
9. Suits: L.A. (NBC)
Suits: L.A. has a higher potential ratings ceiling than the average show on this list, leading to a generous preseason ranking. It could very easily flop, though. Suits’ final season averaged a 0.20 demo rating on USA in summer 2019, ratings that likely would not be passable for Suits: L.A. In addition, the spinoff was ordered on the heels of Suits’ newfound resurgence on Netflix; Suits: L.A., meanwhile, will presumably be a Peacock exclusive when it comes to streaming rights.
10. High Potential (ABC)
ABC’s first scripted premiere of the season will be the drama High Potential, their adaptation of the French crime drama HPI. It will air behind Dancing With The Stars, getting a fall spot over veteran dramas The Rookie and Will Trent. It’s arguably the least likely of ABC’s new scripted series to make a dent in the ratings. Its success could depend on how much ABC promotes it as the season progresses.
11. Watson (CBS)
Like High Potential on ABC, Watson enters the pre-season Power Rankings in last place for its network. It’s the only new scripted series being held for midseason, and the Sundays at 10 pm death slot at that. I still think this show has something of a chance and wouldn’t count it out, but I’m not betting on it being the next big hit.
12. St. Denis Medical (NBC)
NBC doesn’t really have a good spot on the schedule for their new mockumentary St. Denis Medical, so they’re having it lead off Tuesdays starting in November paired up with Night Court. Being from the creator of Superstore and with a similar premise to Abbott Elementary (just in a different setting), it has potential to surprise a bit. However, most of that will probably be on streaming, and for every Superstore, there’s an American Auto. Going into the season, the odds are somewhat against it.
13. Rescue: HI-Surf (FOX)
FOX is in a dire position right now; so much so that if you take away sports, you start to question the merit of it being a ‘Big 4’ network. Hawaii-based action drama Rescue: HI-Surf is getting FOX excited, to the point where they reportedly discussed plans for a franchise before the series was even casted. I have a feeling they’ll be a bit let down by the ratings, but it should be able to do less bad than their other new series given it will have a decent lead-in with 9-1-1: Lone Star.
14. The Hunting Party (NBC)
As a midseason replacement, it’s uncertain where The Hunting Party will land on the schedule. Its ultimate time slot could affect how it performs in the ratings, although in general I don’t have high expectations for this crime procedural.
15. Universal Basic Guys (FOX)
If this column was here to discuss a show’s chances of renewal, Universal Basic Guys would be ranked first — it’s already been renewed for a second season. However, if Universal Basic Guys is anything like FOX’s other new cartoons, it’ll likely hit ratings in the ballpark of 0.10 in the key demo when airing without the football halo. FOX’s strategy with cartoons seems to be to throw everything against the wall and hope something sticks; since nothing has stuck since Bob’s Burgers, I wouldn’t assume this to be much different. It still wins out over some other shows on this list, as it will have weeks where it’s among the highest-rated shows thanks to the football halo.
16. Doc (FOX)
An adaptation of an Italian medical drama, Doc will premiere midseason on FOX. That alone is enough to have little confidence in its chances of garnering high ratings, as the network will have little to work with unless Rescue: HI-Surf is actually the hit they’re hoping for.
17. Grosse Pointe Garden Society (NBC)
The little-known murder mystery drama Grosse Pointe Garden Society was ordered to series alongside Suits: L.A. in July. There’s no gaurantee this show will even air in the 2024-25 TV season, but if it does, it will likely be in a low-priority time slot. As it stands right now, I don’t expect the ratings to be spectacular.
18. Murder in a Small Town (FOX/Global)
Murder in a Small Town has the distinction of being the lowest-ranked series on any broadcast network’s fall schedule. Co-productions rarely do well in the ratings, with their biggest appeal to the network being that they’re relatively cheap. This one airs Tuesdays at 9 pm, getting stuck with Accused as a lead-in. I’d be surprised if this show did any better than Alert or The Cleaning Lady did in the spring.
19. Going Dutch (FOX)
Ranked in last place among non-CW networks is Going Dutch, FOX’s lone new live-action comedy. It will almost certainly be paired up with Animal Control, a show that supposedly does well on Hulu but isn’t exactly a great companion on the linear schedule. I wouldn’t expect much out of it ratings-wise.
20. Good Cop/Bad Cop (The CW/Roku/Stan)
The first of just two new original scripted shows on this list for The CW is Good Cop/Bad Cop. The dramedy procedural is a co-production with the Australian streaming service Stan, and the US-based streaming service Roku. I expect next to nothing from this when it comes to linear ratings, but it at least has more of a chance of becoming a cult hit than the other new offering from The CW.
21. Sherlock & Daughter (The CW/Discover+)
That’s right, The CW has teamed up with none other than Discovery+ to bring viewers Sherlock & Daughter, a scripted period drama from the Sherlock Holmes IP. It doesn’t have a time slot yet, but it’ll have one or more eventually. To The CW’s credit, they managed to continue a working relationship with Warner Bros. Discovery in this series — even if the latter is only committed to airing it in the UK and Ireland on a small streaming service known for unscripted programming.