NBC Renew/Cancel Week 13: Organizing an Upgrade for One Show Amid a Slew of News

This week on a special Monday edition of the NBC Renew/Cancel, one veteran drama gets an upgrade, as I assess the recent news on three NBC series, including La Brea and The Blacklist.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
American Auto (0.35, 0.32-0.38)

Leans Cancellation:
Young Rock (0.25, 0.22-0.31)

Leans Renewal:

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order (0.49, 0.43-0.60)
Lopez vs. Lopez (0.29, 0.24-0.33)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.66, 0.58-0.77)
Chicago Med (0.62, 0.56-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.60, 0.51-0.68)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.48, 0.41-0.62)
Law & Order: SVU (0.59, 0.50-0.69)
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.66-0.98)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Blacklist
New Amsterdam

Already Renewed:
La Brea
Magnum PI
Night Court
Quantum Leap

Coming Soon:
Grand Crew

Law & Order: Organized Crime: A prediction upgrade that I've been waiting to make ever since NBC's announcement that they'd continue programming 10 PM, I never quite got around to it. Right about now seems like the ideal time for an upgrade, as a lower-rated drama that isn't a key part of Dick Wolf's universe just got a renewal. If La Brea -which drew half the rating of OC this week - could draw a renewal, there's no way Organized Crime will be canceled. It was never truly at much risk of being canceled, but the prospect of a 10 PM cut gave me pause. With that off the table, and with ratings that continue to be #2 among 10 PM series (just behind Chicago PD), the path to renewal is completely clear, and it is a CERTAIN RENEWAL. 

La Brea: After a season of declining ratings, La Brea nevertheless managed a renewal last week. This was an incorrect prediction for me, as I'd expected NBC to move on from it due to below-average ratings and likely high production costs. Nevertheless, the threat of an industry strike saved it as NBC decided to prepare for the possibility that they won't be able to produce new episodes later on in the year. We'll never definitively know what the show's fate would have been without the strike threat, but the short six-episode (potentially final season) order indicates that they likely weren't too thrilled here.

Night Court: A correct prediction for me was the renewal of Night Court. Though it's already begun to fade a bit, this was an obvious pickup: The show is TV"s #1 comedy, and is certain to remain NBC's top comedy this season no matter how low it goes. Cancellation was never an option, though the potential strike did likely help it get a pickup a bit early than it otherwise would've gotten it.

The Blacklist: A show I've been sensing the downfall of ever since I took over this column, it was finally announced last week that The Blacklist would end after a milestone tenth season. Though its ratings were nothing like they once were (and will likely be beyond horrific in its new Sunday at 10 slot this spring), ten seasons is a commendable run for any show, and it is good to see it get to end with some advanced notice. The end of The Blacklist is something I did expect this season, rating it as "leans cancellation" in my (unofficial) pre-season renew/cancel, having believed that ten seasons is an appropriate time to wrap.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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