ABC Renew/Cancel Week 10: The Rookie Looks Strong Heading into Tuesday Move

A budding franchise gets the spotlight this week, as the ABC Renew/Cancel returns from a week off. Keep reading to see which Rookie show is due for a prediction upgrade to match its time slot upgrade.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Alaska Daily (0.24, 0.17-0.32)

Leans Cancellation:
Big Sky (0.25, 0.19-0.31)
The Goldbergs (0.38, 0.34-0.44)

Leans Renewal:
The Good Doctor (0.32, 0.25-0.39)
Home Economics (0.35, 0.30-0.41)

Likely Renewal:
The Rookie: Feds (0.27, 0.21-0.34)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.50, 0.46-0.57)
The Conners (0.52, 0.46-0.61)
Grey's Anatomy (0.49, 0.40-0.55)
The Rookie (0.33, 0.27-0.4*)
Station 19 (0.49, 0.44-0.53)

Already Canceled/Ending:
A Million Little Things

Coming Soon:
The Company You Keep
Not Dead Yet
Will Trent
The Wonder Years

The Rookie: Though it is far from a hit, The Rookie has certainly established itself as a top-tier 10 PM performer for ABC this season. Though there were some stumbles along the way, it has become the network's top 10 PM series this season, surpassing The Good Doctor and easily rating above the other 10 PM shows. ABC clearly sees plenty of value in it, given that they recently ordered a spinoff. Though that spinoff isn't doing very well in the ratings, ABC is still forming a new Tuesday Rookie block in January. I can't imagine that ABC would be doing this if these shows weren't making them money in some way. They are doing quite well in delayed streaming views, which is possibly what makes The Rookie so lucrative for ABC, despite the network only co-producing it. This week, The Rookie rose to a season high 0.4 when it had a two-hour episode that began at 9 PM, even with just a 0.3 lead-in from Wheel of Fortune. While I can't say for certain that that performance will be matched in its new time slot (it has to compete with both FBI and 9-1-1: Lone Star), it's a good sign that The Rookie can benefit from a better slot. Usually I'd be cautious and wait for a time slot movie to cary out before I upgrade a show, but it's impossible to see ABC canceling The Rookie this season after all they've done for it - there are far too many better options for cancellation. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

The Rookie: Feds: Speaking of the new Rookie block, that was the reason for my upgrade of Rookie Feds a few weeks ago, and I have felt better about that prediction since. Last week, without the highly incompatible Bachelor In Paradise airing before it, Feds neared its series high, despite its lead-in being a pretty mediocrely-rated 20/20 special. Is a 0.31 something to celebrate? Somehow, it sort of is for a 10 PM show on ABC this season. It's also a sign that Feds may be able to genuinely benefit from a compatible Rookie lead-in when the two are joined together on the schedule in 2023. That's not enough for any sort of prediction upgrade, but it is enough for me to say it remains a LIKELY RENEWAL, and it's trending in the right direction.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments, and vote in the poll of the week!

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