Predicting The Ad Rates: FOX

Here are my predictions for the FOX ad rates, as reported by Variety.

The Simpsons
The Simpsons is still airing after football for many weeks in the fall, but in other weeks will no longer have a new episode of something as a lead-in. I think its value will decrease a little bit as such, since it will be in a slightly tougher situation.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $121,374
2018-19 Prediction: $115,037

Bob’s Burgers
Reruns of Bob’s Burgers make it one of the highest-rated shows on cable, and FOX is trying to capitalize on that by giving it a decent time slot again. It’s been undervalued for quite some time, so I think now that it’s back at 8:30pm, it will be valued higher.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $76,412
2018-19 Prediction: $98,385

Family Guy
Family Guy has the ability to tie or hold its lead-in even on football links. It’s quietly become a stronger show than The Simpsons on some weeks, and will likely be valued as such. With a more compatible lead-in, it should be able to keep its value.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $128,329
2018-19 Prediction: $129,381

Rel is likely a more cost-effective show for FOX. They’ll probably try to charge more for it than they did for The Last Man On Earth (~$83,000) and attempt to make the 9:30pm time slot more profitable.

2018-19 Prediction: $93,381

The Resident
Due to its stability, FOX could probably get away with charging a little more for The Resident this season. It’s not a huge hit but it will give them passable numbers.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $92,918
2018-19 Prediction: $98,381

The breakout hit of the year for FOX will air in the fall for the first time, though it is moving to Mondays against the likes of The Voice and Dancing With The Stars. Still, the ratings in the fall will likely be the highest they’ll ever be, and FOX will likely want to capitalize on this show as much as possible given how Ryan Murphy shows aren’t always great long-term players.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $104,478
2018-19 Prediction: $163,283

The Gifted
While the ratings for The Gifted were fine in the fall, it’s not clear if FOX actually needs the show after the successes of some midseason dramas. Expectations for the first season were high, and I think the ad rate will come back down to earth a bit for its second season given it will likely hover around high fractionals most of the time.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $126,873
2018-19 Prediction: $106,372

Lethal Weapon
Lethal Weapon doesn’t even have a full third season, and FOX seems weary of its strength with the casting change. I think they see this more of a placeholder for whatever airs there in the spring. With New Fox on the way, it very well not make it out of 2018 alive.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $124,561
2018-19 Prediction: $89,463

Empire is still a high-rated show, but one that has become extremely overvalued. Unfortunately for FOX, I don’t think they’ll get away with charging as much as they’ve been charging in the past.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $294,141
2018-19 Prediction:  $194,472

Star is a decent companion with Empire. With it not leaving that time slot, FOX and advertisers should know what to expect. The ratings will likely be a little lower as Empire declines, leading to a devaluation.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $144,432
2018-19 Prediction: $122,374

Thursday Night Football
If you ask the heads of FOX a question at a public Q&A, basically every decision they’ve made has to do with Thursday Night Football. Basically, not only does it take up schedule room, it also leaves less money to invest in scripted shows as they likely paid a hefty sum to take it away from CBS and NBC. Whether it’s worth it or not, I see FOX hiking up the rates in the hopes that they can turn both a short-term and long-term profit on this.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $524,047
2018-19 Prediction: $603,825

Last Man Standing
FOX seems high on the revival. It should get a decent ad rate for Friday.

2016-17 Ad Rate: $81,303
2018-19 Prediction: $82,077

The Cool Kids
FOX could have put The Cool Kids on Sundays and Rel on Fridays, but they didn’t. I don’t see it as much of a vote of confidence, but rather something to fill the bottom of the hour.

2018-19 Prediction: $67,445

Hell’s Kitchen
FOX moved Hell’s Kitchen to 9pm, where it will air after a comedy block back-ended by The Cool Kids. Still, they can very likely get away with charging more than what was charged in the 2017-18 season given its stable and reliable ratings.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $79,998
2018-19 Prediction: $88,471

Cosmos: Possible Worlds
Last time Cosmos arrived, it involved Bob’s Burgers airing at 7pm during Daylight Savings Time, with American Dad and Family Guy also shifting time slots. It burned out pretty quickly, but is back again, hopefully with less schedule disruption. It was high-profile when it arrived, but I don’t think this time around is the same.

2018-19 Prediction: $100,385

The Orville
The Orville pulled in solid numbers in its first season, but for some reason was left on the bench. I think the fact it is being saved for midseason will go against its value. It will almost certainly rise from how low the first season’s rate was, though.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $83,627
2018-19 Prediction: $92,374

The Passage
With all the time The Passage was in development, it’s likely FOX won’t shove it into a low-priority time slot. I think they’ll given this one the biggest push of all the midseason shows and convince advertisers it will do well.

2018-19 Prediction: $115,830

Proven Innocent
Proven Innocent is a legal drama, something that broadcast television has seen countless times in the past. I think they’ll prioritize The Passage and Cosmos over it.

2018-19 Prediction: $89,335

MasterChef Junior
While MasterChef Junior pulls in solid ratings, the price asked for an ad in the 2017-18 season baffles me. It almost certainly isn’t so expensive that they need such a high rate to cover the costs. With a Friday time slot looking likely, I see a devaluation here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $129,935
2018-19 Prediction: $104,385

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