Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 4: Little Ratings, No Longer a Big Shot

There haven't been any reality premieres on broadcast in the past week, but there's still been a ton of action. Stay tuned for multiple upgrades and downgrades, as well as analysis about some of the Summer's reality programs.

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:
Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.4-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.7-0.8)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
The Four (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.7, 0.6-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Match Game (0.7)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.3, 2.0-2.5)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.3, 0.9-1.5)
Celebrity Family Feud (1.3, 1.1-1.8)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3)
To Tell the Truth (0.8 0.7-0.8)
What Would You Do? (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Fate Determined:
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Yet to Premiere:
TKO: Total Knock Out (July 2018)
Whistleblower (July 2018)
Pink Collar Crimes (July 2018)
Making It (July 2018)
Bachelor In Paradise (August 2018)
Castaways (August 2018)

Little Big Shots: The once-huge reality series has fallen apart this season, and has been one of the most difficult shows to predict all Summer long. NBC has a very strong reality department, so the modestly-rated LBS is on the low end of NBC's reality productions. This is much different from where it was just a year ago, and its average is actually closer to its now-defunct spinoff Forever Young than it is to LBS's second season. And speaking of Forever Young, that show got canceled with a 0.92 average, meaning that Little Big Shots is actually performing worse. At this point, I just don't see many legitimate reasons to justify keeping this in a renewal category. I may re-assess later, but for now it LEANS CANCELLATION.

Running Wild with Bear Grylls: It's hard to imagine a fall from grace more rapid than this one. In just a month's time, I've gone from predicting renewal for this reality series to being absolutely certain of its impending death. In a burnoff Sunday at 7 airing, Running Wild collapsed to what was easily a new low, a 0.3. I don't have to say much beyond that, it's done and is once again downgraded, to a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.

The Gong Show: The lead-off show of ABC's Thursday from Hell, The Gong Show has never done well. Ever. And yet, they still thought it would be a good idea to bring it back for a second season. It's performed just as expected in season two, AKA "terrible." However, I've thought a lot about the show's fate, and with costs likely being very low, I think it has better odds than I originally thought. A recent ratings uptick also helps its case, and I'm upgrading it to LEANS CANCELLATION.

Penn & Teller: Fool Us: While I'm not yet ready to upgrade the show's CW siblings, Penn & Teller has been an established Summer hit for the CW for multiple seasons now, and while it's not as strong this season as it was last year, it's still doing well enough for me to upgrade it to a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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