Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 5: The Last Defense Isn’t Making a Strong Case for Itself

The past week has been quite busy for reality TV, with multiple premieres from CBS, multiple finales from NBC, and a scheduling change by ABC. Stay tuned for my analysis on some of these shows and more!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:
Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.7, 0.6-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.4-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.5-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
The Four (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.9)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.7-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
Match Game (0.7, 0.6-0.7)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.3, 2.0-2.5)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.3, 0.9-1.5)
Celebrity Family Feud (1.3, 1.1-1.8)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3)
To Tell the Truth (0.8 0.7-0.8)
What Would You Do? (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Fate Determined:
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Yet to Premiere:
Pink Collar Crimes (July 2018)
Making It (July 2018)
Bachelor In Paradise (August 2018)
Castaways (August 2018)

The Last Defense: ABC's newest documentary series has not been a strong performer so far, dipping to an abysmal 0.4 on two occasions and only being able to muster a 0.5 on a good day. Still, I'm not certain that it's done. ABC's expectations for the series couldn't have been very high, considering its terrible timeslot. And despite being a flop, it's still an improvement on last season's timeslot occupant Somewhere Between. I have a hard time seeing it back next season, so it's still a LIKELY CANCELLATION, but it's not executed just yet.

TKO: Total Knock Out: CBS rarely sees summer success outside of a certain-to-be-renewed show called Big Brother, and that didn't stop last week with the premiere of new game show TKO. With a 0.9 start, the heavily-promoted series starring Kevin Hart doesn't look too promising. However, Big Brother isn't known for being a very good lead-in, and we've reached a point where 0.9 isn't a cancelable number in-season, let alone in Summer. We'll have to see how this plays out, but it starts in the LEANS RENEWAL category.

The Proposal: I won't try to say that The Proposal is not a flop, but it's definitely not the post-Bachelorette disaster that we're used to seeing. I've had it in the leaning cancellation category since it started, but I'm changing my tune now. I expected it to collapse pretty much immediately, but it hasn't done that yet. Granted, 0.6 is not a great number, but for a cheap reality series airing at 10 PM, it isn't too horrid, either. The Proposal now LEANS RENEWAL, though that doesn't mean I'm taking my eyes off it.

The Gong Show: I upgraded this show just last week, and I almost instantly regretted it. Not only because it fell back down to 0.5, but because ABC announced a scheduling change for its Thursday lineup, moving Gong to 10 PM and Take Two to 8 PM. A scheduling change of that caliber shows that ABC really doesn't care about The Gong Show, and is pretty much cutting its losses now. THis prompts a downgrade, to a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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