Summer Renew/Cancel, Week 5: The Out(For Trash)post

It's been awhile since the last Summer Renew/Cancel post, but with a new premiere and some additional ratings datapoints, it's time for a new edition! Stay tuned for my initial analysis of The Outpost, plus some updates.

Certain to be Canceled:
Reverie (0.5, 0.4-0.6)

Likely to be Canceled:
Take Two (0.5, 0.4-0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
Marlon (0.6, 0.6-0.7)
The Outpost (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Salvation (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Renewal:

Likely to be Renewed:

Certain to be Renewed:

Fate Determined:
Code Black (Canceled)
Elementary (Renewed)
Quantico (Canceled)
Shades of Blue (Final Season)
The 100 (Renewed)

Yet to Premiere:
Trial & Error (July 2018)
Burden of Truth (July 2018)

The Outpost: The CW's newest drama started with an awful 0.1, the lowest result you can get without attaining the mythical Blutarsky rating. Starting that low would usually mean an automatic trip to a certain cancellation prediction. However, The Outpost is a dirt-cheap international co-production, meaning that it costs the CW very little to air it. It's in a similar situation as CBS's Ransom, which is still alive despite terrible ratings. Also, its week two rating, a 0.2, isn't even too bad for the CW in Summer. I don't think the Outpost is coming back, but I'm not ruling it out yet. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Take Two: I may have been a little quick to call this comedy-drama a dead show walking. Sure, it's a big flop that has hit 0.4 multiple times. However, with a recent schedule tweak, ABC is showing signs that they actually care about the show, giving it a timeslot upgrade by moving it out of 10 PM and into 8 PM for this week. Even if this is just a one-week test, it makes it clear that ABC is considering renewing the show and wants to see if it's worth it. The timeslot shakeup probably won't make much of a difference, but it's enough for me to upgrade this show to a LIKELY CANCELLATION, with another upgrade a possibility if it shows signs of life.

Marlon: NBC's sophomore sitcom wrapped its season last week, hitting its ninth straight 0.6. A 0.6 isn't a number to really be proud of, but it could be worse. I certainly was expecting worse, and the show's stability really impressed me, even if the numbers aren't strong. I still don't see much incentive for a third season on NBC's part, but it hasn't done anything to make me more certain of its cancellation since it premiered, and it continues to LEAN CANCELLATION.

What do you think of these predictions? What do you think about the scripted summer slate? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

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