Predicting The Ad Rates: The CW

Here are my predictions for the CW ad rates, as reported by Variety.

Moving Supergirl to Sunday is a risk for The CW, mostly because they didn’t have success on that night in the past. It also remains to be known if viewers are willing to follow it live to Sunday in a landscape that allows people to watch whenever, wherever they want. My guess is they’ll charge a bit less for an ad.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $48,301
2018-19 Prediction: $39,381

A new incarnation of Charmed is coming to The CW on Sunday nights. While this is probably the network’s most anticipated new show, reboots can easily go ignored...just look at Dynasty, a reboot of a show that was once on top of the ratings chart. I’m thinking it gets valued slightly higher than Supergirl, but not as high as something like The Flash.

2018-19 Prediction: $41,839

After airing on Wednesday for many seasons, Arrow moved to Thursdays, and now Mondays, as the show that helped rebrand The CW continues to age. The fact that it overachieved a little last season should help to cancel out inevitable declines now that it is moving days again.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $35,165
2018-19 Prediction: $34,731

DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
While not one of the stronger superhero shows, this one has proven that it deserves a decent time slot on the schedule by providing reliable ratings. It won’t be airing after The Flash, though, which could cause it to lose some value.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $43,483
2018-19 Prediction: $36,981

The Flash
While it has declined in the ratings a bit, The Flash continues to be The CW’s highest-rated show. They’ll be sure to charge as much as they can for it.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $65,709
2018-19 Prediction: $71,373

Black Lightning
Black Lightning proved to have a fan base in its first season and will continue to air behind The Flash in the fall. If the ad rate doesn’t spike up, this is a missed opportunity. After all, the first season’s was reportedly lower than that of Life Sentence.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $34,500
2018-19 Prediction: $54,849

Riverdale was one of the top successes last season when it comes to veteran shows, with increased ratings due in part to people finding the show on Netflix. The Live + Same Day ratings faltered a bit by the end, but the show was still undervalued in total. I foresee a nice spike here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $33,935
2018-19 Prediction: $48,492

All American
All American has Greg Berlanti as an executive producer, but is otherwise very off brand for The CW and doesn’t have a whole lot of hype. Riverdale went 0 for 2 when it came to launching shows last season, which also isn’t a great sign. Advertisers may be weary.

2018-19 Prediction: $29,262

Supernatural is consistently proving its value on The CW, so much so that its ad rate seems like an injustice. I don’t think there will be a huge spike, but somewhat of an increase at least.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $33,287
2018-19 Prediction: $39,814

While the final season of The Originals did fine, there’s nothing on the linear ratings side of things that suggested it deserved a spin-off. It makes it easier for the network to promote, but they will also likely recognize it won’t rate anything more than average.

2018-19 Prediction: $30,381

Dynasty is obviously not alive because of first-run ratings, but rather because Netflix paid a ton of money to acquire episodes. It’s like The CW’s own Elementary. Ad revenue is not what keeps this going. A move to Fridays shows they’re not going to try to increase its first-run ratings either.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $38,171
2018-19 Prediction: $18,372

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Its stability should give it a little uptick in value. However, now that it’s in a tougher time slot I still see it being the least-valued CW show. At least Dynasty will have the benefit of local affiliate programming as a lead-in, something that will almost certainly out-rate it.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $15,465
2018-19 Prediction: $17,037

In The Dark
This show seems off-brand and edgy for broadcast television, which could either go in its favor or completely misfire. I think The CW will go conservative.

2018-19 Prediction: $25,812

Roswell, New Mexico
This high-concept drama seems to be destined to air after Supernatural on Thursdays, which isn’t a terrible time slot. It could easily flop, but I think advertisers will see the compatibility and be willing to pay a decent amount for this.

2018-19 Prediction: $32,896

The 100
As The 100 ages, it becomes less likely it will win out on a prime time slot over a new midseason show. No rate was reported by Variety in the 2017-18 season, but regardless I don’t anticipate it pulling in a high ad rate.

2018-19 Prediction: $25,739

By the timing of the news, it seems like iZombie’s renewal was a close call. I’m guessing most, if not all, episodes air in the low-viewed summer and the ad rates will reflect that. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: Not reported
2018-19 Prediction: $18,382

Jane the Virgin
Jane the Virgin reportedly has 18 episodes this season, yet has been left on the bench. It’s yet to be seen when it will air, and if it will spill into summer. Its ratings have been low, yet stable. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: $21,360
2018-19 Prediction: $22,371

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