Predicting The Ad Rates: NBC

Here are my predictions for the NBC ad rates, as reported by Variety.

Football Night In America
I don’t really see the ad prices of Sunday Night Football going anywhere, so might as well keep this the same as well. Maybe a small uptick to try to cover the costs.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $104,815
2018-19 Prediction: $106,318

NBC Sunday Night Football
See: Football Night In America. NBC, advertisers, and the NFL all know what they’re getting out of this.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $728,434
2018-19 Prediction: $733,381

The Voice
The Voice has had decent year-to-year trends. Based on ratings, it deserves to keep the high ad rates it has. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: $233,242 (Monday), $218,950 (Tuesday)
2018-19 Prediction: $235,442 (Monday), $222,338 (Tuesday)

The Voice hasn’t been able to properly launch a show recently. As of now, it seems like they’re planning on focusing more on New Amsterdam.

2018-19 Prediction: $104,385

This Is Us
While This Is Us is a huge hit, I still think it was a bit overvalued, especially with the ratings coming back down to earth a little bit at the end of the season. Its best days are very likely behind it, but it should still be able to pull in high ad rates for a non-football show.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $394,314
2018-19 Prediction: $319,482

New Amsterdam
It would be a missed opportunity to not charge as much as possible for the show that airs after This Is Us. New Amsterdam should be more compatible than Law & Order: True Crime. Also, medical drama are hot right now, which should given advertisers a boost of confidence.

2018-19 Prediction: $152,052

Chicago Med
Chicago Med will lead off NBC’s all-Chicago Wednesday nights. It will no longer be airing after This Is Us, but should provide ratings slightly better than previous time slot occupants. It will likely be devalued a bit, but that’s natural given the time slot change.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $132,875
2018-19 Prediction: $121,019

Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire should get help by a multitude of factors, including being sandwiched between its two fellow Chicago shows. It was probably a little overvalued last season, but should have a solid hold now that it doesn’t have to air after extremely low-rated comedies.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $131,232
2018-19 Prediction: $129,448

Chicago PD
I really can’t tell if Chicago PD just got a time slot upgrade, downgrade, or neither. On one hand, it gets to air after a resilient Chicago show that should pull in good ratings. On the other, it was very compatible with Law & Order: SVU, which is now moving. I say the two cancel each other out and the ad rate is more or less the same as last season.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $130,126
2018-19 Prediction: $128,779

Superstore had a pretty solid season, and made the best of a bad situation in the spring. It’s not the breakout hit NBC may have hoped for overall, but it provides stable ratings and deserves to be valued the same, if not a little more.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $116,916
2018-19 Prediction: $118,279

The Good Place
The Good Place certainly overachieved in its second season, as it could have easily collapsed. The same could happen this season, though some Emmy love may help the ratings. I expect the value to go up, but not by a ton.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $106,838
2018-19 Prediction: $109,472

Will & Grace
Will & Grace’s first revival season was met with much hype, and naturally NBC was able to charge a high ad rate for it. Now that its ratings aren’t really much better than the sitcoms that air earlier in the night, I expect its rate to take a tumble. It will still make NBC a lot of money, and the decline is expected due to all revivals being frontloaded in the ratings.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $170,749
2018-19 Prediction: $127,388

I Feel Bad
Amy Poehler is behind I Feel Bad, and NBC has shown numerous times that they think highly of her. This could easily become another Great News (Tina Fey) or Champions (Mindy Kahling). With other options on the bench, NBC likely sees this more of a placeholder.

2018-19 Prediction: $88,284

Law & Order: SVU
It’s tough to say how SVU will fare in its new time slot. It always seemed like it was best suited for the 10pm time slot, but now it’s asked to air after a comedy block, and I Feel Bad might not do well. Still, NBC will likely try to convince advertisers this is a good move by hiking up the ad rate. After all, the show has been pretty stable these last few seasons.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $106,373
2018-19 Prediction: $112,474

NBC really needs to rely on the ad rates for Blindspot to make it profitable. That being said, they won’t want to overcharge and have to deal with makegoods.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $83,844
2018-19 Prediction: $67,384

Midnight, Texas
After taking a long time to renew this marginally-rated summer 2017 series, Midnight, Texas is being asked to air after Blindspot in the fall. I’m getting vibes of Emerald City or Constantine here.

2018-19 Prediction: $63,471

Dateline NBC
Dateline has consistently been beating 20/20 and is a very reliable player for NBC. While the content matter could skew away some advertisers, I think an inevitable decline in rates for some shows could lead to a possible uptick here.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $48,593
2018-19 Prediction: $54,353

A.P. Bio
A.P. Bio’s renewal was likely part of NBC’s strategy to be patient with their comedies, as they slowly rebuild that department. With Brooklyn Nine-Nine canceled by FOX and saved by NBC, A.P. Bio is the most prone to have been pushed back to summer. As such, I don’t expect a huge ad rate.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $99,722
2018-19 Prediction: $71,883

The Blacklist
The Blacklist went from post-Voice hit to Thursday anchor to Thursday at 10pm to the Wednesday time slot consistently filled with marginally-rated dramas. This season, it is being kept on the bench, and likely will return midseason on Sundays. This could be the last season where it is viable for NBC, though Sony seemingly makes a lot of money off the show.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $111,037
2018-19 Prediction: $82,472

Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Brooklyn Nine-Nine seems like it will fit in well with Superstore if paired with it, which would be a smart move on NBC’s part. Assuming they promote it correctly, NBC can play hero here and get away with charging a decent sum.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $88,957
2018-19 Prediction: $94,274

Ellen’s Game of Games
This is easily a surprise hit of the season. With its high ratings and broad appeal, the second season of this show should be a big money maker for NBC.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $124,061
2018-19 Prediction: $160,393

Good Girls
Good Girls was another marginally-rated Mondays at 10pm show that got renewed. The second chance is supposed to be on Sundays after World of Dance. I have to think the ad rate will be lower.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $94,191
2018-19 Prediction: $82,431

The Wall
This game show broke out in its first season but has since faltered a bit. This could end up going into indefinite hiatus with the hosting situation, but for now it seems like it’ll stay a second-tier unscripted show for NBC. I certainly don’t see its value increasing.

2017-18 Ad Rate: $90,000
2018-19 Prediction: $87,442

World of Dance
World of Dance had very good ratings and retention from America’s Got Talent in its first season, but has since weakened a bit. If the plan to air it Sundays midseason goes through, chances are it will be weakened a bit more. 

2017-18 Ad Rate: Unknown
2018-19 Prediction: $90,371

Abby’s is pretty much guaranteed to not get a great time slot, with Will & Grace weakening and Brooklyn Nine-Nine probably getting paired up with Superstore. With NBC’s strategy, it probably doesn’t need to do a ton to get renewed, but it will also be far from their most revenue-generating show.

2018-19 Prediction: $82,474

America’s Got Talent: The Champions
I don’t see this winter version of America’s Got Talent doing as good as the summer one, but NBC can likely get away with charging a hefty sum. 

2018-19 Prediction: $185,388

The Enemy Within
While The Enemy Within doesn’t have a time slot yet, the best case scenario is behind The Voice in the spring. I think the appeal will be broad enough that they can convince advertisers to pay a decent amount.

2018-19 Prediction: $92,004

The Gilded Age
This seems like a very niche show that might belong on Fridays or in a lower-priority summer time slot. It should find a fan base, but advertisers may not be convinced that base is strong or broad enough.

2018-19 Prediction: $74,275

The InBetween
I’m predicting The Enemy Within and The InBetween will be the two post-Voice shows in the spring. Being a spring or summer show, I can’t see it pulling in a ton of ad revenue, but enough to cover the costs of the first season.

2018-19 Prediction: $86,485

The Titan Games
Dwayne Johnson is in right now. American Ninja Warrior, less so. This is a more promising unscripted show than some others, but there’s no telling where the show will air. I don’t see a six-figure ad rate, but somewhere close.

2018-19 Prediction: $97,438

The Village
For better or worse, The Village seems to be in vein of This Is Us. NBC will probably use positive This Is Us comparisons to convince advertisers to pay a nice amount for an ad. If they told advertisers there’s a chance it airs following This Is Us, that could convince them even more.

2018-19 Prediction: $120,482

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