NBC Renew/Cancel Week 5: NBC Unlikely to Break Up Their New Extended Family

At long last, the Hollywood strikes are over, and scripted TV is finally returning to our screens. Up first are NBC comedies Extended Family and Night Court, which debuted at the close of 2023 and officially debuted this week in their permanent slots. Keep reading for my assessment on their odds to return.

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Quantum Leap (0.30, 0.28-0.32)

Likely Renewal:
Extended Family (0.52, 0.33-0.71)
Night Court (0.41, 0.35-0.46)

Certain Renewal:
Saturday Night Live (0.77, 0.60-0.96)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
La Brea
Magnum PI

Already Renewed:
The Irrational

Coming Soon: 
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order
Law & Order: Organized Crime
Law & Order: SVU
Lopez vs Lopez

Extended Family: A few days before Christmas, NBC debuted their latest sitcom, Extended Family. Debuting the night before Christmas Eve, and on a Saturday, no less, is rarely seen as a sign of confidence in a show, but NBC opted to use a rare daytime NFL game to provide the largest lead-in they could to Extended Family. It mostly squandered that lead-in, with only a 0.71 in the key demo after a direct NFL lead-in. That poor retention seemed to indicate minimal interest in the show, and doom ahead for it. Instead, the show got off to a solid enough start on Tuesday in its time period debut, with a 0.33 behind a 0.37 from Night Court. While that's a rating that puts it below the projected 18-49 league average, it's quite a solid showing for an NBC comedy, and the best retention that we've seen a show put out of Night Court (which, admittedly, has dramatically decreased in the ratings, thus making it easier to retain a larger portion than it was in those early weeks with ratings in the 0.5-0.7 range). That 0.33 is also a higher raw rating than nearly anything we saw from Lopez vs Lopez last season (save for two 0.33s), or anything we saw out of Young Rock or Grand Crew, and is only bested by two episodes of American Auto, which had a lead-in roughly double what Extended Family had. In short: comedy has been a struggle for NBC lately, and this is a nice showing for a comedy that NBC clearly had some faith in to begin with. It's very likely to fall along the way, and it may even fall enough to put it at risk of cancellation, but starting out by basically matching the rating of the already-renewed drama The Irrational - which had a stronger lead-in - puts it in a comfortable position. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL. 

Night Court: Also starting out on solid footing is Night Court, which returned basically steady with its late season one performance after dropping pretty much non-stop throughout the season. A 0.37 is a far cry from where it started in 2023, but it's still a good rating for an NBC comedy, or really any show in this day and age. Because of its precipitous drops over season one, I'm not confident enough about its renewal chances to call it a "certain renewal," but I think it's pretty close to a lock. NBC kept the show in an anchoring position, and intended to give it a fall slot before the WGA and SAG strikes made it impossible to get scripted shows on the air. That's a sign of commitment to the show, and its ratings thus far aren't giving NBC a reason to waver from that commitment. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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