Summer Renew/Cancel Week 8: Downgrades Galore for ABC Realities

The summer is winding down, but there's still plenty of time before the Summer Renew/Cancel packs it up for the year. This week's update sees the cancellation of one show and moves for many shows on one particular network. Stay tuned for updates!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:
Family Food Fight (0.4)
The InBetween (0.4)
Reef Break (0.3)
What Just Happened??! with Fred Savage (0.2)

Likely to be Canceled:
Grand Hotel (0.5)
Hypnotize Me (0.1)

Leans Cancellation:
Card Sharks (0.6)
First Responders Live (0.5)
NCIS: The Cases They Can't Forget (0.3)
Spin the Wheel (0.6)

Leans Renewal:
The Big Stage (0.1)
BH90210 (1.3)
Bring The Funny (0.9)
Holey Moley (0.7)
Hollywood Game Night (0.5)
My Last Days (0.1)
Mysteries Decoded (0.1)
The Outpost (0.1)
Pandora (0.1)
Songland (0.9)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.5)
Two Sentence Horror Stories (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4)

Likely to be Renewed:
Beat Shazam (0.6)

Certain to be Renewed:
The $100,000 Pyramid (0.8)
American Ninja Warrior (0.9)
America's Got Talent (1.5)
Big Brother (1.1)
Bulletproof (0.1)
Celebrity Family Feud (0.9)
MasterChef (0.8)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Match Game (0.6)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.2)
Press Your Luck (0.8)
To Tell The Truth (0.7)
What Would You Do? (0.5)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.2)

Fate Determined:
Agents of SHIELD (Renewed)
Bachelor In Paradise (Renewed)
The Bachelorette (Renewed)
Blood & Treasure (Renewed)
Burden of Truth (Renewed)
Elementary (Final Season)
Instinct (Canceled)
Love Island (Renewed)
Paradise Hotel (Canceled)
iZombie (Final Season)

Yet to Premiere:
Red Bull Peaking

Card Sharks: This is the most notable update of the week, as I move the Joel McHale-hosted game show from a renewal prediction to a cancellation prediction. The status of this one changed pretty quick, as its strong early numbers began to quickly fade into mediocre 0.6s and, ultimately, low 0.5s. I don't think it's a goner for sure, but at this point, I think it's the first of the games shows to get the ax if ABC is looking to shake up its summer lineup. It now LEANS CANCELLATION.

Holey Moley: The decline of this show is one of the biggest disappointments of the summer season. After its big premiere, Holey Moley looked like a nice new addition to the ABC summer lineup, providing them with a rare Thursday winner in the summer. They even touted it as their big new summer hit. Then, out of the blue, it just dropped. The 0.6s it suddenly received made me downgrade it before, but after an uptick to 0.7, I upped it again to a likely renewal. That 0.6-0.7 range was definitely still renewable, considering that virtually every non-Bachelor ABC show is in that range this summer. It then dipped further, to 0.5, on a night that saw NFL preemptions across the board. I gave it the benefit of the doubt then because of the unusual circumstances, but after holding there again last week with fewer preemptions, I'm again downgrading it. I don't think they'll end up canceling it, as it's still the strongest part of a very weak Thursday lineup, but its fate looks less clear. It LEANS RENEWAL.

Family Food Fight: For the longest time, I didn't want to downgrade this one, because I thought there was at least some chance of it coming back. After multiple weeks at 0.3, however, I just don't see the possibility for another season. It was stable for the first two weeks and looked like it had somewhat of a chance at a renewal, but then it just got uglier and uglier. I have a hard time imagining ABC even considering renewing it, and I see it as the summer reality that's most likely to be canceled. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Instinct: To the surprise of almost nobody, CBS canceled their Sunday police procedural Instinct after two seasons last week. It was the third-lowest-rated Big 4 drama and had some of the worst retention on broadcast behind the extremely incompatible Big Brother. CBS made it clear they were canceling it before when they doubled up episodes to get rid of it faster, and now it's just official. This was a correct prediction.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and make sure to vote in the poll of the week!

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