CBS Renew/Cancel: Week One

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With the first week of the Fall 2018 season in the books, its time to delve into some renewal/cancellation predictions for CBS. Here's where things stand now...

Final Season
Certain to be Cancelled
Likely to be Cancelled
Toss-Up for Renewal
Likely to be Renewed
Certain to be Renewed
The Big Bang Theory

Criminal Minds
Blue Bloods

Friended Me

Happy Together
Hawaii Five-0
NCIS: Los Angeles

Magnum P.I.
Madam Secretary
NCIS: New Orleans

Murphy Brown
Young Sheldon

The Neighborhood


To understand this chart going forward, any changes will be marked in bold in the chart above, with some explanations down below as well.

CBS had a rather rough premiere week, with mega-hits The Big Bang Theory and Young Sheldon both returning way down on both Monday and Thursday. Even with the dip in ratings, Big Bang is already in its final season, and Young Sheldon isn't going anywhere.

The Eye network also had a rough week with most of its freshman series, with the exception of new Tuesday night drama FBI. With a solid 1.3 demo on premiere night, it held a majority of its 1.4 NCIS lead in. Given the state of the rest of the premieres, I am confident to move it into the Likely to be Renewed category.

As for those rough premieres, they belong to Magnum P.I. and Murphy Brown. Both highly-promoted series premiered to a 1.1 demo after months of promotion and hype. I think it is still too early to make a call on either series, though. It seems as if Magnum P.I. is in CBS' wheelhouse, and I do not think they will give up on it so easily. Another weeks worth of data may help move the series in one direction. And in the case of Murphy Brown, I think its simply an "I have no idea" kind of series. What were CBS' expectations, is CBS going to air more than 13 episodes, does the cast want to return? I don't even know how much of a ratings factor there is with this reboot.  Just too many questions for me with only one weeks worth of not-so-good ratings.

Bull made a rather bleh debut on Monday as well (0.9), but it saw some rather okay boosts in L+3 data (1.5). With those blah premieres above, and the show only in its third season, I think CBS will stick it out for another season. The only thing that may throw a wrench in things is if ratings begin to tank over the next couple of weeks.

Let's take a look at two more series this week. MacGyver is on the move from Likely to be Renewed to Toss-Up after its less than stellar debut on Friday night (0.7, but an 0.66 in unrounded). MacGyver had an ugly debut last season and stabilized rather quickly, so lets see if it can do the same this season too. Until that happens, its a Toss Up for me.

And rounding out this week, SWAT moves from Likely to be Renewed to Likely to be Cancelled. No other show on network television had a worse week than SWAT. After respectable ratings all last season, even into deep spring, SWAT returned for its sophomore season with a series low 0.7 demo. SWAT dropped into the 0.6's in its 1030 half hour - yikes. Again, more data will be helpful, but this is an outright disastrous return.

This week also saw the returns of Blue Bloods (0.8 demo), Hawaii Five-0 (0.8), Mom (1.3), NCIS (1.4), and NCIS: New Orleans (1.0), and there isn't much to say about any of these series.

Next week you can expect to see many of these shows out of the Toss-Up and into either renewal or cancellation.

What are your thoughts on CBS' premiere week? Any disagreements with the shows in their respective placements? Sound off in the comments below!

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