CBS Renew/Cancel Wrap-Up Part 2: Early Pre-Season Predictions for Shows That Barely Exist + Reader Survey

The Ratings Junkie

Welcome to the final edition of CBS Renew/Cancel for the 2024-25 TV season. Part 2 of the Wrap-Up includes early pre-season renewal and cancelation predictions for shows on the fall 2025 schedule along with an analysis. In this prediction table, new shows are in bold and shows changing time slots are in italics. At the end is an optional survey where you can leave your thoughts on CBS Renew/Cancel this season.

Key

Preseason Predictions

Already Renewed or Canceled

Two shows have already been renewed through the 2026-27 TV season: FBI, which was renewed for three seasons in 2024, and Ghosts, which was renewed for two seasons this spring. Veteran comedy The Neighborhood is already confirmed to be ending, as it was renewed for an eighth and final season in the spring. That means just two comedies have their fates undecided for the 2026-27 TV season. The same can be said for just one FBI franchise show, the upcoming CIA.

Certain Renew

With four separate ‘Renew’ categories, a Certain Renew prediction is not taken lightly. Once a show reaches Certain Renew status, it will not be downgraded barring any unforeseen circumstances. Five shows get the distinction of going straight to a Certain Renew prediction: Survivor, Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage, Matlock, Fire Country, and Tracker. Tracker, Survivor, and Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage are among the highest-rated shows on television, with Matlock joining them once multi-platform viewership is factored in. While Fire Country lags behind a bit, it’s about to spawn its first spinoff and has franchise potential.

Likely Renew

Behind the two shows already renewed and the five shows in Certain Renew are three shows that start off in the Likely Renew column: The Amazing Race, Elsbeth, and Sheriff Country. The Amazing Race has been a mainstay on CBS’s unscripted roster, and has seen a resurgence in value in recent seasons. It’s not nearly as strong as Survivor or Big Brother though, complicating its scheduling in the event America’s Culinary Cup does well this spring. Elsbeth starts at Likely Renew despite putrid A18-49 linear ratings because if that was a reason for it to get canceled, move to Paramount+, or even change time slots, it would have happened by now. Finally, while Sheriff Country is unproven and is far from guaranteed to provide strong ratings, CBS will likely be doing all they can to keep their dreams of a Fire Country franchise alive.

Leans Renew

Three shows will enter the season in the Leans Renew category: CIA, NCIS, and NCIS: Origins. CIA arguably has franchise potential of its own, yet also faces a tough time slot and more complicated financials than most other shows on CBS’s 2025-26 schedule. NCIS: Origins gets a time slot upgrade next season, shifting to 9 pm in what could be a do-or-die situation. NCIS is now by far CBS’s longest-running show, making it inherently on the expensive side. The move back to its old Tuesdays at 8 pm time slot could be a way to give it the ratings boost it needs just to survive.

Tilts Renew

Starting off slightly on the right side of the bubble are NCIS: Sydney and Boston Blue. NCIS: Sydney is a utility player at best on CBS, but does well for Paramount+ in Australia and will very likely be around in some capacity on CBS for as long as it’s around in Australia. The move to 10 pm means it’s far from a lock for renewal, though, even as it becomes part of an all-NCIS night. Boston Blue does not have a whole lot of room to fall from Blue Bloods without sticking out like a sore thumb on the linear schedule. Reportedly filming in Toronto and the fact Blue Bloods remained a pretty strong player in multi-platform viewership through the end will help its case.

Leans Cancel

Besides The Neighborhood, at the bottom of the pack on the fall schedule are two new series: DMV and The Road. Neither are part of a larger IP, nor is it easy to envision either being able to spawn one of their own. The Road would already be looking for a new time slot in 2026-27 in the event midseason replacement and Yellowstone spinoff Y: Marshals gets renewed for a full second season. DMV could survive if its ratings match its focus group reception, but there are already two clear options for Monday nights in 2026-27 that don’t involve a second season of the new comedy. One of these is moving Ghosts to Mondays to launch Eternally Yours, and another sees a CIA spinoff joining FBI and CIA on the night. But I also started Fire Country out in a Cancel category in its inaugural pre-season predictions, so The Road and DMV are probably going to do very well now. As two rare examples of shows not tied to an IP on CBS’s schedule, it would be a pleasant surprise to see them do well.

Midseason

CBS was unusually lean on cancelations in the seasons leading up to 2024-25, which led to a mass exodus of aging veterans this season. With only two hours of programming starting in the red on the fall schedule, and Einstein already ordered to series for 2026-27, midseason by default looks more ominous. On the scripted side, Y: Marshals (or whatever the recently-ordered Yellowstone spinoff ends up being called) will likely do good enough for a renewal, while Watson looks to be on a path to cancelation. That goes even if Y: Marshals does well to the point of boosting Watson, like Tracker did CSI: Vegas. On the unscripted side, America’s Culinary Cup is likely to be wildly incompatible with Survivor and be less than impressive in the ratings, but has the advantage of being the cooking show CBS has long wanted to get on the air. New unscripted true crime series Harlan Coben’s Final Twist is likely to struggle at 10 pm in the winter airing after The Price Is Right At Night, while Hollywood Squares will likely do solidly at 8 before collapsing at 10:30. Notably missing are Let’s Make A Deal Primetime, which appears to have been benched indefinitely at this point, and Raid The Cage, whose prospects for a third season are looking increasingly low.

Final Thoughts

Though CBS’s schedule is extremely safe on paper, there are actually a wide range of possible outcomes for how their season will pan out. In 2021-22, the network also launched three new spinoffs: FBI: International, CSI: Vegas, and NCIS: Hawai’i. All three made it to their third seasons, but the latter two were always relatively low-rated and none of the three made it past its fourth season. There’s a fair chance at least one of CIA, Sheriff Country, and Boston Blue end up among CBS’s lowest-rated series next season, at least on the linear schedule. None of the three have filmed any footage, nor has midseason Yellowstone spinoff Y: Marshals. In fact, CIA’s backdoor pilot was scrapped not because CBS had given up on the series, but because they hadn’t been able to secure a series lead in time to shoot a backdoor pilot. With no midseason replacements on deck, they need to hope all three shows are executed properly. At best, CBS has their strongest group of new scripted dramas in years. At worst, they have three Rescue: HI-Surfs, with a fourth joining them midseason. Reality likely lies somewhere in the middle.

Mondays, Tuesdays, and Fridays will be the biggest nights to keep an eye on in the fall. FBI is making the same move from Tuesdays at 8 to Mondays at 9 that NCIS made in 2021. That year, NCIS lost 30% of its demo in Live + Same Day viewing. Granted, that’s only a tad more than the previous season when it stayed put on Tuesdays, but a 30% decline for FBI could spell trouble for CIA and make for a short-lived three-letter-acronym night. Tuesdays are a chance for NCIS to boost Origins and Sydney and rejuvenate the franchise’s linear ratings a bit. It’s also a chance for an aging drama to lead into two of the network’s lowest-rated series. Fridays will see the launch of two new dramas (granted, both spinoffs), while Fire Country is tasked with continuing to be a capable anchor.

Reader Survey

Below is the annual reader survey, which while optional I would appreciate if you could take a minute to fill out. All questions are optional but would help with evaluating what’s working and what isn’t as we head into the summer hiatus.

Interactive Schedule

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	9:30	10:00
Mon	The Neighborhood	DMV	FBI		CIA
Tues	NCIS		NCIS: Origins		NCIS: Sydney
Wed	Survivor			The Amazing Race
Thurs	Georgie & Mandy’s First Marriage	Ghosts	Matlock		Elsbeth
Fri	Sheriff Country		Fire Country		Boston Blue
Sun	Tracker		The Road		Encores