The below table features renewal and cancelation predictions for scripted streaming originals with fates yet to be determined on Apple TV+, DailyWire+, Disney+, Freevee, Hulu, Max, MGM+, Paramount+, Peacock, Prime Video, Roku, and Tubi. Predictions are based off a model developed over the past year and a half. The primary factor is how easy it is to find the show on the streamer when browsing. For example, if a show appears prominently on a streamer’s home page 5 times, it’s often considered more likely to be renewed than one that you only find once or twice when you really go digging. Secondary factors include how long it’s been since the most recent season has been filmed, critical acclaim, and, when available, budget and viewership figures.
Underneath the prediction table, you will find prediction polls for almost every show in the table, minus the ones that have already been canceled.
Canceled Shows
Since the last edition, Disney+ canceled drama Renegade Nell, Hulu canceled sitcom Life & Beth, and Max canceled cartoon Clone High. Renegade Nell was predicted as Tilts Renew, while Life & Beth and Clone High were both predicted as Leans Cancel. Renegade Nell is a case where putting too much weight on a positive extraneous factor cost what could have been a correct prediction. While several signs pointed to cancelation, it was publicly revealed a Season 2 was being developed. This gave me enough reason to cautiously predict it as Tilts Renew, though its ultimate cancelation is not particularly surprising outside of that factor.
New Premieres
Also since the last edition, a few new shows have premiered, whether a series premiere or a season premiere. Hulu premiered the second season of their sitcom Unprisoned, while Max premiered the DC comics cartoon Kite Man: Hell Yeah!, a spinoff of Harley Quinn, and Peacock premiered the Steph Curry-starring sitcom Mr. Throwback. Of the three, only Mr. Throwback is currently predicted to return for another season. The mockumentary is an increasingly rare occurrence of a streaming original actually premiering the same year its series order was first announced. Receiving a premiere date and trailer just two weeks before it premiered, the series coincides with Team USA’s quest for the gold medal at the Olympics — also airing on Peacock, and also starring Steph Curry. Mr. Throwback is one of the most popular shows on Peacock at the moment according to their in-app chart, and is receiving plenty of exposure on the streamer. It’s also being rerun on USA Network, arguably another sign of confidence in the series.
The second season of Unprisoned, meanwhile, dropped with little fanfare and lags behind even Life & Beth when it comes to exposure on Hulu. A third season is possible, but certainly not probable when you consider how relatively few streaming series make it that far. Also possible-but-not-probable is a second season of Max’s Kite Man: Hell Yeah!. WarnerBros Discovery has been shifting resources away from Max Originals lately, even moving several high-profile upcoming projects to HBO. It’s tough to envision a series that’s taken 27 months to premiere to be an exception to this, especially when considering how long it will be until a second season can even be released due to it being a cartoon. Its glimmer of hope comes from being a DC property tied to the popular Harley Quinn IP.
Prediction Changes
There have been six prediction changes since the previous edition, four shows moving from a renewal prediction to a cancelation prediction, and two shows moving from a cancelation prediction to a renewal prediction. One case of the latter is Apple TV+’s new sitcom Sunny. It had just premiered at the time of the previous edition, and its cancelation prediction was based on my expectation that it would lose momentum in subsequent weeks. However, that has not appeared to be the case, causing it to be bumped up to Leans Renew. Peacock’s drama Those About to Die is in a similar position. It was a brand new series at the time the previous edition was published, and has remained extremely popular on the streamer. Peacock is notorious for canceling shows, but at the moment this is looking to be an exception.
However, the forecast isn’t as sunny (pun intended) for Apple TV+’s Dark Matter and Sugar. The latter re-entered the Top TV Shows chart in the wake of an Emmy nomination, but is no longer one of Apple TV+’s 25 most-watched originals; a feat that shouldn’t be too hard to obtain. Plus, its presence on the app is relatively low, causing one to believe the nomination may not be enough to save the series after all. Dark Matter is doing a bit better, currently sitting at #10 on the chart. With Apple now looking to cut costs on Apple TV+, this may not be enough for a long-developed sci-fi series to earn a second season.
Similarly to Dark Matter, The Acolyte could also be susceptible to the effects of budget tightening. The Star Wars series, which was reportedly less-viewed than the others in the IP despite making the Nielsen streaming chart, cost a whopping $180 million to make. That’s over $22 million per episode, making it one of the most expensive TV shows ever. In order to justify that price tag, Disney+ needed a cultural moment out of The Acolyte the way they did from The Mandalorian.
Also suddenly finding itself vulnerable is DailyWire+’s cartoon Mr. Birchum. The six-episode season went viral upon its premiere in May, bringing widespread attention to the very existence of DailyWire+. However, DailyWire is no longer treating the series like a tentpole production, and the series itself was not received warmly. They may decide it best to look ahead to the premieres of their upcoming scripted series rather than double down on a cartoon people may have sampled out of curiosity but did not particularly enjoy watching. Plus, by the time a second season of the cartoon is even ready to air, the show may end up long forgotten.
While still predicted to be renewed, pay attention to Apple TV+’s Acapulco and Trying. Both veterans are performing unremarkably at the moment, and could be subject to abrupt cancelations given Apple’s new cost-cutting mandate for their streamer. However, it’s pretty unprecedented for Apple to end a series without announcing a final season first, which weighs in their favor and allows them to keep their renewal predictions.
PollsWhich shows do you think will be renewed and canceled? Leave your votes below!