Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 8: Making It Will Probably Make It

It's a new week, which means a new edition of the Summer Reality Renew/Cancel! We've got updates for a few Summer programs, plus initial predictions for a pair of recent ABC premieres. Keep reading for analysis and new predictions!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type, and premieres are noted in italics.)
Certain to be Canceled:
Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.7, 0.5-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
Castaways (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Love Connection (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Pink Collar Crimes (0.3)

Leans Renewal:
Beat Shazam (0.7, 0.6-0.8)
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
Making It (1.0, 0.9-1.1)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.5-0.8)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.6, 0.6-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (1.1, 0.9-1.2)
America's Got Talent (2.1, 2.0-2.5)
Bachelor In Paradise (1.1, 1.0-1.3)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.5, 0.9-1.7)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3, 0.3-0.4)
What Would You Do? (0.5, 0.4-0.8)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
The $100,000 Pyramid (RENEWED)
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
Celebrity Family Feud (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
To Tell the Truth (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Making It: NBC's newest reality show isn't lighting the world on fire, but it's done OK-ish for its first few outings. It's not a great AGT retainer,  but it's on par with veteran Hollywood Game Night, which occupied the slot last season after World of Dance vacated it. HGN was renewed last season and never seemed to be in much danger. For that reason, Making It looks good for a renewal, at least at this point. The folks at NBC also seem to be big supporters of Making It host/EP Amy Poehler, so she can only help this show make it to season two. It still LEANS RENEWAL, but I'm more confident in saying that this week.

Little Big Shots: Due to a poor season of performances, I downgraded Little Big Shots a few weeks ago. It seemed pretty justified then, as the show disappointed in both its Sunday spring and its Thursday summer runs. However, NBC seems to be more devoted to the show than I originally thought, and they've been airing repeats on Saturdays and Sundays for the past few weeks, even though the show has already ended. This leads me to believe that they'll be bringing it back for at least one more run, and I'm upgrading it to LEANS RENEWAL.

Castaways: The summer's final new premiere, Castaways actually didn't start too terribly. With a 0.7 for its premiere, this was better than anything The Last Defense did in the slot and on par with the performances of The Proposal. And then it fell to 0.5 in week two, and any chances the show had at renewal seems to have been cast far, far away. ABC has had bigger flops than Castaways, some even airing this season, but that doesn't mean they'll give this flop a second chance. It starts as a LIKELY CANCELLATION.

Bachelor In Paradise: The offshoot of ABC's highly-successful Bachelor(ette) franchise returned last week to solid ratings, and it remained a solid ratings performer in week two. With a 1.1 average, it's higher than anything else ABC has on the schedule right now, and though it's not as successful as The Bachelorette, it's still a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

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