Summer Reality Renew/Cancel, Week 9: Big Ratings, Bigger Renewal Odds for Big Brother

It's been another interesting week for Summer reality shows, with two swing shows being renewed this week. See how those renewals change the odds of one show, and more, in this week's Summer Reality Renew/Cancel!

(Note: Downgrades are noted in purple bold type, upgrades are noted in blue bold type)
Certain to be Canceled:
Love Connection (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Phenoms (0.2, 0.1-0.2)
Running Wild with Bear Grylls (0.6, 0.3-0.9)
TKO: Total Knock Out (0.6, 0.5-0.9)

Likely to be Canceled:
Castaways (0.6, 0.5-0.7)
The Gong Show (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
The Last Defense (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
My Last Days (0.1)
Whistleblower (0.4, 0.3-0.4)

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: NCIS (0.5, 0.4-0.5)
Pink Collar Crimes (0.3, 0.2-0.3)
The Proposal (0.7, 0.5-0.8)

Leans Renewal:
Little Big Shots (0.8, 0.7-1.1)
So You Think You Can Dance (0.6, 0.5-0.8)

Likely to be Renewed:
Celebrity Undercover Boss (0.6, 0.5-0.7)

Certain to be Renewed:
American Ninja Warrior (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Bachelor In Paradise (1.2, 1.0-1.3)
The Bachelorette (1.4, 1.2-1.6)
Big Brother (1.5, 0.9-1.7)
The Four (0.8, 0.7-0.9)
MasterChef (1.0, 0.9-1.2)
Masters of Illusion (0.2)
Penn & Teller: Fool Us (0.3, 0.3-0.4)
What Would You Do? (0.5, 0.4-0.8)
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.3, 0.3-0.4)

Fate Determined:
The $100,000 Pyramid (RENEWED)
24 Hours To Hell and Back (RENEWED)
America's Got Talent (RENEWED)
Beat Shazam (RENEWED)
Celebrity Family Feud (RENEWED)
Making It (RENEWED)
Match Game (RENEWED)
To Tell the Truth (RENEWED)
World of Dance (RENEWED)

Love Connection: Its Tuesday partner Beat Shazam was renewed this week by Fox, but there was no word about Love Connection. That's not really a surprise though, since it's been a big flop all Summer, with 0.4 becoming the norm in its most recent outings. I held out on downgrading it before, but I don't think it can get much more apparent that Fox is done with it. It's been downgraded to a CERTAIN CANCELLATION.

Big Brother: I haven't talked at all about Big Brother this Summer, because it's been a CERTAIN RENEWAL all season. However, it's worth noting how much the season has improved as time has gone on, with some very solid trends for its most recent episodes and a nice string of 1.7s and 1.6s. This affirms its certain renewal status, and its place as one of the strongest shows of the summer. It's definitely coming back, and probably for a very, very long time.

The Proposal: This is truly the swing show of the summer. I couldn't be less certain of what will happen to it, even though it is a huge flop. Airing behind two of the most compatible lead-ins imaginable for it, it's currently averaged a 0.65, with 0.5s for the past two weeks. I upgraded it a few weeks ago, but now I'm reconsidering. The 0.5 was bad enough, but it received zero promos during Monday night's Bachelor in Paradise, a sign that ABC may be giving up on the show. ABC might still renew it, but at this point, I'm not betting on it. It now LEANS CANCELLATION.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below, and don't forget to vote in the Poll of the Week!

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